Indeed. One of the things Marco is glossing over is how the iOS 7 overhaul makes iOS development riskier:
- Will I (and the apps I'm planning) be able to adapt to the UI changes smoothly or not?
- How are these changes going to play out on the iPad?
- Does Apple have any other foundation-shifting changes planned before iOS 7 comes out?
- Will these changes impact user behavior?
- And so on.
From the perspective of an independent developer starting out, none of this matters. Their risk is already off-the-charts (and the downside limited by time and effort, for the most part), so all they care about is the increased reward potential. They don't even really care if that increased reward potential is coming from changes in absolute rewards and/or relative rewards vs other developers.
For everyone else, the risk vs reward calculation might look quite different.