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Comment by btipling | Hacker News Reader

It seems hypocritical to laud fragmentation when it happens in iOS and decry it in Android. These changes seem similar to the Android differences in gingerbread and post-honeycomb. The resulting effect on developers will be the same. iOS 7 has made it apparent which bloggers are unable or unwilling to be fair in their criticism when it comes to Apple. The mismatched gradients on the new icons are beautiful to them, the wire frame and confusing UI elements are revolutionary, and fragmentation is simply just creating fertile ground for change. Great.

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This is a very a good point. As a major Apple fan I completely agree with you. After looking over the iOS changes I see absolutely nothing that is more "revolutionary" than what we have now in iOS6, or even what Android and Windows Phone offers.

At best, it looks like iOS7 is nothing more than a mix of Android and Windows Phone plus a few extra UI elements.

I am not a big fan of Marco's obsession with drama but I do respect his opinion and find his take on certain thing within the tech industry enlightening. Unfortunately, this post does seem like nothing more than turning a blind eye to what Apple has done with iOS7.

I'm also an Apple fan. I love my Macbook Pro Retina, it's the best computer I've ever owned. Being a fan of a company shouldn't blind you to their missteps when they happen though. It shouldn't lead to unfair application of criticism.

You're absolutely right. Much of the caterwauling hasn't been fair though. This isn't a final release we are discussing. It a beta. It's a redesign that has been on the boards for less than 7 months, and it looks that way. Does it need more work? Yes, absolutely. I don't thing a single engineer or designe at Apple is sitting back in their chair and thinking "job done". What it is is an interesting direction. Accusations of 'missteps' are off the mark. It's difficult to have a sensible discussion as the signal-to-noise in any Apple discussion is just awful. Criticism is good, however most are utterly incapable of doing so constructively, which is plainly bad.

Combine Marco and Gruber's [1] insight - This is a major house cleaning/forest fire. Someone (Jony, et al.) has stepped back, looked at the confusion that has developed over the last 3-5 years on the iPhone, and has decided to recreate the iPhone as a conceptual platform. The introduction (and hopefully consistency) of multiple dimensions onto the phone, and a cross-system approach towards geometry, means that iOS7 will be a complete re-think of how applications work and behave on the iPhone.

And don't be so quick to say, "or even what Android and Windows phone offers.." - Those are awesome platforms, and Apple can learn a lot from them (as Android and Windows have learned from the iPhone.) Indeed, the "Cards" approach in multi-tasking is actually reminiscent of what Palm's WebOS did [2] - so Apple has learned from them as well.

I am very intrigued as to how well the Multitasking/Notification driven background/User-interaction-Dependent-CPU-scheduling-for-background-processess will work - That's pretty innovative solution to a common problem of Craptastic background apps that you don't think about sucking your battery dry. [edit: And all the discussions about Apps checking in when you've got the radios on, when you are powered up, etc... - I've been dreaming about exactly that for 2+ years. Finally! (Non-ironically)]

Don't kid yourself - iOS 7 is the big one, and, will likely be as ugly as the upgrade was from 10.6.8 to 10.7.0 was on OS X - My prediction is that iOS 8 will basically be fixing all the glitches and problems created from this complete platform rethink - but, sometimes, to make an omelet...

Forest Fire Indeed!

[1] http://daringfireball.net/2013/06/ios_7_signature [2] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c20uhGxSxWo

iOS7 will be a complete re-think of how applications work and behave on the iPhone.

Of course it won't. That just reads like hyperbole. Apps on iOS7 will work almost entirely the same as they do on iOS6 and below.

Although that does sound like hyperbole, the point is that they will be doing a "complete re-think of how applications work" - even though the end result will be much the same as it is at present.

Listen to half a dozen developers at WWDC right now - see if, based on what they have seen so far with the DP, if they aren't completely rethinking their approach towards how their apps need to work/behave to feel "modern?"

I'm not up in the city right now, but from the few podcasts I've listened to - people are already commenting on how "dated" their app feels.

And - with the exception of the Mail/Calendar (Apple Favoritism, at its worst) and wacky "geofencing wakeup in the background techniques", all of our backgrounded Apps on iOS have basically gone to sleep permanently (until user pulled them back into the foreground) unless they were a GPS/VOIP/Music/Newstand app (and even some newsstand apps performed poorly with background downloads - I'm looking at you NYT).

In addition to the 3-D geometry (where I'm expecting lots of slide over sheets as a new metaphor) - I think all developers are right now considering how they can take advantage of an App that they can "wake up" remotely from a notification and perform activity with.

Background downloads will change apps, sure. But does that really constitute a "complete re-think of how applications work"? It's the same feature, just implementable in a better way.

And people are in shock after years of iOS looking pretty much the same. When everyone actually looks at things objectively, they'll realise that their apps need to look a little different, behave a little different, but overall be pretty much the same apps they were before.

(and as an extra thought) you do not need to go far to imagine what apps with these new functionalities will be like - Android had them for a long time and Android apps are basically very similar to iOS ones.

There is a lot more new than just background downloads. And it will change how developers think about their applications. Dynamic text, UIKit Dynamics, UIMotionEffect will change a lot as will new navigation/transition schemes.

Right. Incremental improvements to the APIs available. That is in no way a "complete re-think of how applications work".

You are conflating design and under-the-hood changes. I have seen absolutely nobody complain about the new APIs you mention, even though they might need a few iterations to work - just like 10.7 did. That is fine, that is how Apple has always worked. Apps that were quick to embrace features of 10.7/10.8 have always gotten a solid push on the Mac App Store, for example.

What annoys many users (and every developer is also a user) is change for the sake of change. There is absolutely no technical reason for changing the style of icons on iOS 7. Clear fit right in on the iOS 6 home screen and was a joy to use regardless.

That is true but do the new APIs offer something that would cause some revolutionary re-think and remolding of a vast majority of apps in the app store?

Sure the new APIs might offer some great features for apps and I am sure they will definitely be used in the majority of upcoming apps, but my problem (maybe not problem just curious observation or minor annoyance) is Marco taking a completely nonobjective stance on the iOS7 changes. I am completely ok with his opinion but the blind hyperbole is a bit annoying.

Android would not have a real fragmentation issue if 70% of all users could easily update and did so within 12 months. Important distinction that negates this argument I think. (I am Android user for day to day phone)

But the fact is that they haven't upgraded, regardless of whether that's due to unwillingness or due to unavailability. Willingness to upgrade doesn't matter if you can't upgrade; you're still stuck on the old version.

It's not fragmentation. Within a year, the vast majority of iOS users will be on iOS 7. It's evolution.

Except for all those not so old iPhones that are stuck on iOS 6 forever.

That would be the 3Gs. I had mine for 3 years before I upgraded to the 5. It felt like a pretty old phone. What are the odds that people who have a 3-4 year old smart phone, really want to use a lot of apps?

I have a 3GS. And even though I've had it for so long, it still doesn't feel dated to me. Apple did a good job with the hardware and the software support. It is finally starting to feel a bit sluggish after almost 4 years of very heavy use. Compare that with my old phones which I essentially threw away after a year or so and never missed them...and the crappy Razr that died after a year.

The 3GS was on sale as recently as last September (maybe a bit later in some emerging markets).

At least it was never sold with an previous-version installed OS like half of Android phones.

With each suggestive generation selling more than all previous generations combined, it's not a big issue for long. Obviously this pattern can't last and I'm not sure if it hold for the iPhone 5 even, but its a big factor in the equation. Edit: removed bad link to old article. I can't find the Asymco graph I'm after, sorry... Maybe it was someone else's?

You mean the four year old non-retina iphone 3gs? I think it's safe to take that device behind the barn to retire forever. Few tears will be shed.

I don't like the idea that four years is a prohibitively long time for a device that I spend hundreds of dollars on.

Is there another company that is updating 4 year old phones? Is there an Android phone released with 2.2 that can run 4.2? I think Apple's backwards compatibility track record is the best there is, but here's to hoping for better!

Not exactly a Google update, but the open source nature of Android makes efforts like CyanogenMod possible. They support many old devices.

My Motorola Defy came with 2.1 Eclair. Runs 4.2 as of now, thanks to Cyanogen. I keep it because it's built like a tank; all phones should have IP67 certification.

Seriously? Four years is quite a long time in today's tech world. Think if you had a four year Android or Windows (whoops) phone if that was a reasonable thought. Bottom line - if you think 4 years ISN'T a long time for a hundreds of dollar device then there's not much hope for you.

OK, but we're talking about reality here. Four years is an astoundingly long lifetime for a device to stay updated in this industry.

The reality of Mobile Device evolution is that four-mobile-phone-years is roughly equivalent to ten-desktop-years or six-laptop-years.

And, let's be clear - it's only a prohibitively long time if you wish to continue to get the new feature release platforms - indeed, it's only Today, June 11, 2013, that the original iPhone, released in 2007, is now being obsoleted by Apple [1], a full five years after it was discontinued.

[1] http://www.macrumors.com/2013/04/29/original-iphone-will-soo...

Still, bear in mind that it's a pocket computer, built in 2009, with a 600 MHz processor and 256 MB of RAM. Modern pocket computers have at least twice the processing power, two (or more) cores, and 4 times the RAM. They can also offload a whole lot more to the GPU. It was going to hit a ceiling eventually.

If you look at the devices cleared for iOS 7, it's almost definitely a RAM overhead issue. All the 512 MB+ devices (4, 4S, 5, Touch 5, iPad 2+ and Mini) are getting iOS 7. None of the 256 MB devices (Touch <5, iPhone <4, iPad 1) are getting it.

Does it suck? Yeah, definitely. At some point, though, you have to make the tough decision and say, "We have to compromise on either our vision or supporting older devices." When you get to that point, the choice isn't too hard. Is there anyone out there who would really argue that watering down iOS 7 is worth the increased support? (Especially with the US cellphone market and its subsidies being what it is?)

I feel for iPod Touch 4 owners. Like another poster said, those were on sale a few weeks ago. Every other unsupported device is terribly old, at least as far as the pocket computing world is concerned.

No need to spend hundreds of dollars; just sit behind the curve a little bit. Spent $68 on an Optimus S with Ting a year ago, and it gets everything I need to do done at less than the cost of my Verizon dumbphone contract. It's as fast as the computer I took to college not that many years ago, and I got a lot done on that. Battery runs for days too, even with considerable use.

Looking forward to upgrading to an S2 or S3 when prices drop to frivolity. A larger screen will be nice.

Tools needn't be new nor flashy to be powerful.

If you use your smartphone as much as most people do, a few hundred bucks is a steal on a per-hour basis.

It's not like your device will stop working the day iOS 7 is released. Your phone won't have any features taken away and you can keep it using until the hardware fails. (I'm still using my Nokia N900).

A lot of iOS 6 features rely on Apple infrastructure, e.g. iCloud, which will probably become even less reliable on iOS 6 as the months roll by. So no, the device becomes less useful. Try using iTunes on Lion if you don't believe me.

The reality is that you're in a vanishingly small minority.

And I'm not hand-waving that notion either. I write apps and I've seen device usage numbers for a number of apps across a number of verticals - 3GS usage really is a vanishingly low number, well below 1%.

Devs don't have anything against old phones, we don't care how often you give Apple your money. If enough people still used the 3GS, we'd support the 3GS.

When you're in the sub-1% group, without some contract guaranteeing support, expecting support is unreasonable.

And Apple didn't become the most valuable company in the world by not playing to the consumer-driven culture, making sure there is a good reason for people to drop hundreds (or thousands) each year on updated smartphones, tablets, and laptops.

Howsabout my 9-month-old iPod Touch 4g?

How is yours holding up on 6.0+? Mine is super laggy on 6.1 - I can't imagine it being a good experience with 7.

It's been generally fine. It's nowhere near as fast as my phone, so I'm not sure I'd notice a comparative speed decrease anyhow, though.

You mean the model of the iPod touch first released on September 1, 2010? Three years ago by the time iOS 7 ships?

To you the product's less than a year old, but the reality is that the technology in that product is closer to three years old already.

I say this a iPhone 3GS owner that still hasn't upgraded. It's a bitter pill, but that's the nature of technology.

I really think 3-4 years is more than reasonable support for a mobile device in the current market.

> those not so old iPhones that are stuck on iOS 6 forever.

Of all the devices supported by iOS 6, only the iPhone 3G S and the 4th gen iPod touch won’t get the upgrade. The iPads that could run iOS 6 will also be able to run iOS 7.

The iPhone 4 has been out for 3 years and will be able to run iOS 7 when it is released later this year. How many 3 year old Android, Blackberry and Windows Phone models do you know of that can run the newest version of the OS?

(This post was edited to reflect that the 4th gen iPod touch won’t get the upgrade to iOS 7. The ‘iPod touch 16GB’ was listed on iOS 7’s page, I understood that to mean the 4th gen model, which also came in 16GB capacity.)

The iPads and iPod touches that could run iOS 6 will also be able to run iOS 7.

My fourth generation iPod Touch runs iOS 6 but does not qualify for iOS 7. Fifth gen only.

>The iPads and iPod touches that could run iOS 6 will also be able to run iOS 7.

Not quite, at least as far as the iPod Touch goes. iOS 7 will only run on the 5th generation iPod Touch (see http://www.apple.com/ios/ios7/features/ - bottom of the page), the version with the 4-inch screen.

Apple was selling the 4th generation device up until May 30 of this year. In other words, there's people who bought this thing two weeks ago who will not be able to upgrade to iOS 7.

This is mostly a good point, but is missing an important difference. A lot of important Android APIs are provided as part of Google Play services and made available back to Android 2.3, whereas an iPhone 4 running iOS 7 still will be unable to use Siri.

I understand your point, and it’s a good one, but iPhone 4 isn’t allowed to run Siri because of hardware reasons, not API support. The noise reduction in newer models is a lot better than on iPhone 4. Hackers have managed to get Siri running on iPhone 4, it just doesn’t work as well.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/02/05/apple_iphone_4s_a5...

So fragmentation is ok as long as it's only for a year?

I guess we're moving the goal posts again.

How many hours/days will it take to get 10%, 25% and 50% of the iOS platform on to iOS 7?

I'm betting over 50% installed base will be on iOS 7 in less than a month.

It took two weeks to hit 45% when iOS 6 was released. http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/1005_ios...

Wow-level context: Jelly-bean is out about eight months and is at 28 some-odd percent. http://hothardware.com/News/Android-Jelly-Bean-Penetration-U...

Also, keep in mind iOS 6 was (somewhat) held back in terms of adoption because google hadn't released maps for the platform yet.

That is absolutely, utterly subjective and anecdotal. I think blaming Google for iOS 6 adoption not being (even) quicker is grasping at straws that in all likelihood don't exist.

Given I've also known a few unrelated people do this, I believe your blanket dismissal foolish when it's simple to falsify the thesis: check iOS 6 adoption after Google Maps was released.

re: "That is absolutely, utterly subjective and anecdotal."

I'll see your anecdotal and raise you a citation.

http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-ios-6-adoption-rate-soars-follo...

"The Dec. 12 reinstatement of Google Maps on iOS has apparently been enough for some of those reticent users to finally make the upgrade to iOS 6. After achieving 10 million downloads in the first 48 hours available, MoPub, the San Francisco-based mobile ad exchange that monitors more than 1 billion ad impressions a day and supports more than a dozen ad networks and 12,000 apps, says there has been a 29 percent increase in unique iOS 6 users in the five days following Google Maps' release on iOS. "

BTW, not "blaming" Google, if anything, I would be blaming Apple for having a sub-par map application (As a frequent international traveler, I can tell you it's still not up to par with Google's maps) - but I'm not blaming anyone. Just recognizing it was a pretty significant issue for many people.

> Jelly-bean is out about eight months and is at 28 some-odd percent.

That clearly shows that Android users are happy with the current release and see no need to switch to a newer version because core features are missing completely, as is the case with iOS.

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic. In case you're not, I've been an Android user for years now, and that is most certainly not what it shows. The vast majority of people can't upgrade to Jelly-bean, because their device, manufacturers, or carriers don't support it or won't release the update for their particular phone. For example, the Droid Bionic was on Gingerbread with no way to upgrade (without rooting) until October 2012 [1]. And the upgrade was for Ice Cream Sandwich which was already 12 months old by that time (and Jelly-bean, the next version after ICS, had already been out for 3 months by that time) [2].

[1] http://www.droid-life.com/2012/10/23/droid-bionic-ice-cream-...

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_version_history#Android...

iOS6 is at 93% and it hasn't even been a year yet. Where's Jellybean? Who's still stuck writing apps that are compatible with Gingerbread and have to use ActionBar Sherlock?

The thing is a number of developers are just writing for 4.0 and above.

I've not saying fragmentation on Android isn't bad. What I'm arguing is fragmentation on iOS is being framed as a good thing (actually a "great" thing) by the author of the post.

But Android wouldn't be (OS) fragmented if you had 90%+ of the user population on Jelly Bean 4.1+

iOS isn't going to fragment - the vast majority of the user base will immediately upgrade to iOS 7.

You're probably right. But Marco's argument hinges on the idea that:

- there will be fragmentation

- hence it will be difficult for developers to write apps that make the most of iOS6 and iOS7

- hence this is an opportunity for nimble new players to enter the market and capture the iOS7 userbase

I agree that there probably wont be fragmentation, but the point is, Marco is saying if there was, it will be a brilliant opportunity. Therein lies the mental gymnastics.

I think he's more saying that people will be reluctant and/or unable to completely rethink their apps design and functionality and this will present an opportunity for new developers who build things that are uniquely suited to iOS 7 and beat the old slow-moving incumbents.

Marco's first bullet point is:

"Most [developers] can’t afford to drop support for iOS 6 yet. (Many apps still need to support iOS 5. Some unlucky souls even need to support 4.3.) So they need to design for backwards compatibility, which will be extremely limiting in iOS 7."

He's not saying it's a great thing for users - he's saying it's a great thing for developers looking to enter a crowded space, because there will be some room to enter the market targeting only iOS 7 while established players are figuring out how to juggle the multiple OS versions.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with the author. Marco talked down on Android for years because of its fragmentation. It's just hypocritical that it's only good if it happens on iOS.

In one of the Google IO talks, Google has been encouraging developers to develop only on 4.0 and above. To quote, "go to where the puck is going" and "develop the best app possible for every phone".

iOS's 'fragmentation' between ios6 and 7 is totally different than androids because its temporary. There'll be a few month period where established apps haven't updated their ui. iOS has insanely quick (in comparison to other OSes) adoption rates. 15% of devices upgraded to ios6 within 24 hours of release, 50% two weeks out, etc.[1]

So there will be apps with the old ui for people running ios7 who will decide to look for a new thing to do X for the first time in years and thus a market opportunity. Whereas with android, the problem is that phones overwhelming remain on the OS they shipped with. It's not a matter of waiting 3 weeks for a fitting ui, it's that you have to develop for a 1-3 year old OS or write off half the market. [1] lost url because I'm writing this on ios7 and it's pretty goddamn buggy, but it looks like others have provided it

"iOS's 'fragmentation' between ios6 and 7 is totally different than androids because its temporary."

Says who? This change is much more major and, despite what Gruber and Marco would like to have you believe, is not design perfection personified, and is likely to be polarizing.

Let's forget about the z-axis and new interface updates, there are some major new features in iOS 7 that I'm sure a lot of people will want to upgrade to within the first month. (I predict faster adoption for 4/4s/5 users than we saw in iOS 6)

In decreasing order of importance (my opinion)

o Pre-Launch background Updating (Finally!) - I spend 3-5 minutes, every morning, and another 3-5 minutes, every night, downloading my Podcasts before my walk home. Annoying. Now, in theory - they'll download for me in the morning and night. Awesome - particularly as my iPhone 5 is happily sitting in an elevation dock at 100% power for most of the day, or plugged in at home for most of the night. It Will be interesting to see what developers do with notification launched background apps - hopefully it won't be abused.

o Airdrop for iPhone (Finally! How many times have I wanted to get a file/image/content off my iPhone onto my Laptop just before a plane took off)

o Swipe Control Center - another "Finally" - getting closer to android parity/rooted iPhone parity - I tweak the brightness/lock rotation/pause/play music and settings pretty often. This will length the lifespan of my home button (double click + swipe left to currently get lock + music settings)

o Enhanced Camera/photo management - looks really nice - lot of people will like this - even the die-hard Camera+/Instagram/Flickr/Google+ photo types. I do feel kind of bad for Camera Noir - their window was pretty meager. :-(

o iTunes radio - particularly for all of us who already subscribe to iTunes Match.

o Advanced Siri - I use Siri many times a day, looking forward to this.

The point that others are making in the thread is this:

If you are an independent iOS developer looking to hit a majority of devices, just develop for iOS 7 - pretty much everyone will be on that in a year.

If you are independent Android developer looking to do the same - you need to target at least ICS, Jelly Bean and Gingerbread to get a 90%+ market share. (And with Gingerbread support comes ActionBar Sherlock and other fun stuff). I'm in the middle of this right now for my app, and hating it.

When the iOS version adoption looks like the first table in the following page, then you'll have a fair point: http://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html

That's because you are framing the issue as something it's not. It's not fragmentation in the same sense as Android. 93% of apple devices are on the latest iOS version. Right around 30% of Android devices run the latest major release. The number is actually quite a bit lower if you start to consider point releases. Even worse is the fragmentation caused by different vendors and chipset manufacturers writing different libraries and drivers. See libstagefright, which has major differences across different devices even if it's the same version of the OS, for example different native pixel formats are supported by different vendors so writing any kind of a custom protocol video streaming app on Android is a stone cold bitch to get working across devices at 60 fps and that's only targeting 4.0+. It gets way worse when you include older versions that may or may not have libStageFright (most 3.0+ have it but a few don't). I'm familiar with video and audio the most but other areas have the same issue.

Contrast that to iOS, sure different API's get added but at least the same versions of the os behave the same across devices. Sure for a very short time iOS will be split between versions but that will be exceedingly short and you'll never have the true fragmentation problems that Android has in iOS.

and up pops a perfect examplar

I suppose it's not a coincidence Apple showed off how many users are running the latest version of iOS vs the latest version of Android.

Fragmentation implies "fragments". iOS 6 has a 93% install base. An ever-shrinking 7% isn't much of a fragment to worry about. iOS 7, due to it's new shiny factor, will likely see an even faster adoption than iOS 6.

It really helped that Apple introduced over-the-air updates and PC Free (activation without a computer) in iOS 5.

iOS 7 introduces automatic updates, but I don’t know whether that’s only for apps or for the OS as well. If both, then versions past iOS 7.0.0 should have an even faster adoption rate.

I think you forgot the part where Android fragmentation leaned more towards the 3 year old version. 2.3 is still huge. If Android had simply evolved fast and all the new phones had the new Android the problem wouldn't be so bad.

2.3 is still big but its share is dwindling pretty fast.

Vine only supports 4.0 and above & there's no uproar. It is a Top 3 app on Google Play.

I don't know about "Dropping Fast" - it's slowly dropping away, even after they changed how they gathered statistics to only count devices visiting the android store.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Android-dist-by-dessert.pn...

> Vine only supports 4.0 and above & there's no uproar. It is a Top 3 app on Google Play.

Are people really likely to get in an uproar over Vine?

Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, sure... but Vine?

Do you know that Vine has already overtaken Instagram as the biggest social sharing on Twitter?

Overtaken due to the Android release but pretty soon back in sync according to this: http://www.itproportal.com/2013/06/12/vine-and-instagram-in-...

And really, I'm not entirely shocked that a Twitter-owned service is getting more sharing on Twitter compared with a service that gets a reasonable amount of obstruction from Twitter.

That doesn't mean people will riot if it isn't available on their device. If you've got Android 2.x and can't get Vine, you likely don't really care as you haven't ever used Vine.

I think you forgot the parts where even devices with a 3 year old OS [1] regularly get updates of many APIs that have been (sensibly) decoupled from the OS, have access to substantial compatibility libraries and so on.

[1] By which I mean Froyo, Gingerbread doesn't hit its third birthday until December (at the earliest).

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