OK, it’s a pandemic. Now what? | Hacker News Reader

OK, it’s a pandemic. Now what?

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22 pointsolegp14 comments

I see no reason to be overly concerned. Its mortality rate is low (according to WHO figures, not the crap the media is publishing) and the infection level is still low.

All Pandemic means is that it is now present in multiple countries. Some of these reporters are acting like its Captain Trips or something.

We have a flu pandemic every year, this one is just a little different so far. I'm going to wait for some real evidence before I start duct-taping the doors and windows closed.

I think this will be worse than normal flu season, mainly because this is a newer strain that people arent inoculated against.

However, I don't think it will reach anywhere near disaster levels. Annoyance levels? Yes. I'm already redirecting travel away from Mexico, and thousands of other people are too.

I heard from someone who works for a large important hospital that they are preparing for the worst, however, especially on Mexican border states like Texas and Southern Cal. They think a lot more people are infected than being reported becuase of widespread fear of quarantine / lack of money in the poorer districts of Mexico.

You think that. I hope that. But neither of us really know.

The point is that a new flu variant can mutate rapidly when it crosses species. If swine flu chills out and remains as is, everything will indeed be ok. If it mutates and gets worse, we are so screwed.

The danger is that there is a rapidly spreading flu strain that is much more likely than normal to rapidly increase its mortality rate.

So... fingers crossed. We should be ok. If not, there's not much anyone can do about it.

How is it determined that someone has this new flu, vs. just a standard flu, or something else? Whenever I've had flu like symptoms, it's always been a clinical diagnosis.

They test for the strain of virus itself. That most likely means either an antibody-based test, or a PCR-based test, but I don't know the particular protocol being used.

In any case, it's not something that's going to be done in your doctor's office -- or even at your everyday medical testing lab. Probably only a handful of virology centers can do the work.

Thanks. I was curious because I've never had an actual test for the flu. However, I have had a PCR test for hepatitis after a bout of food poisoning. My HMO got back to me pretty quick with that test, so I'm guessing whatever lab they use has the necessary gear. Thus, I was curious as to whether or not my HMO could quickly retool its testing center with the right equipment to test for this flu virus.

I did a bit more research and it does look like the swine flu test is PCR based. However, it looks like there's only one vendor for this particular test. Indeed it does look like samples must be shipped out to labs which have the right equipment.

I am saying to friends that the swine flu is like the normal one, you have fever, headaches, sore throat, but one week later, you die.

And it's plausible description: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/parents.htm

What I don't know is if the swine flu has stronger symptoms. For example, more headache than you normally had with flu, or coughing more, etc... To me, so far from what I've read, you have a flu, then you're dead. Wish I knew if there was a couple things to look for, that would really raise the alarm.

But if the influenza really spreads, like dozens of people here in São Paulo are diagnosed, one sneeze and off I go to the hospital.

How did you manage to translate "Although rare, severe respiratory illness (pneumonia) and deaths have been reported with flu infections in children" to such a broad, absolute statement like "you have fever, headaches, sore throat, but one week later, you die."

Did you even read the page you linked to?

The issue with the H1N1 virus is that it has been for the most part out of action for the majority of the population and therefore have a generation of people with no resistance to the virus at all. The typical versions of the influenza that has been going around (usually the antigens are in the the flu shots) have similar proteins that we have some level of defense to, but when we encounter (in this case) a new virus that we have no defense, our bodies just go way overboard on the defense response and if not properly treated - basically die of asphyxiation.

EVERY single person who gets the flu (any and every flu) at some point in his life gets one they have no resistance/immunity to!

There is nothing magical about this one, it's not more infectious, it's doesn't kill more people (at least in the US).

It's just a regular flu.

Except that normally only a small number of people get sick, and this time a large number of people will get sick.

But the individual sicknesses are going to be regular flu.

It could mutate to a version that kills (your overboard on defense theory), but right now it's not, and every flu can mutate to a version that kills.

The best case scenario is it goes global now, before it has a chance to mutate. Or that it waits till an immunization is available.

And since in my opinion it's not going to mutate to a killer version before we manage to make a vaccine (4-6 months) this is going to turn out to be a big nothing!

"EVERY single person who gets the flu (any and every flu) at some point in his life gets one they have no resistance/immunity to!"

But thatericguy's point still stands, if he was talking about there being no herd immunity and the crucial difference that makes in the disease's potential to spread

It has potential to spread, yes - but once spread it is no different than any other flu. Unlike the GP post of "you get it you are dead".

It doesn't matter that no one has been exposed to it before - people will get sick, sure. But that happens all the time that someone gets sick from a flu that for them is new.

It is only the spreading potential that is a problem, as a disease it is the same as regular flu once you get it.

the H1N1 virus... [has been] out of action for the majority of the population and therefore have a generation of people with no resistance to the virus at all

Actually, an H1N1 virus was included in the 2008/2009 FDA-approved seasonal flu vaccination formula:

http://www.fda.gov/cber/flu/flu2008.htm

As of March, the 2008-2009 flu season was considered especially mild, perhaps because "this year's flu shot closely matched the strains of flu virus prevalent in the general population". See:

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-flu14-2009mar14,0,58...

So it's not like an H1N1 virus is all-new; it's just this mexico-originated '09 flu that's new. (And that's why "H1N1" alone is a poor name for the new '09 flu virus, as bad in a different way than "swine flu".)

Lemme fix that for you:

"I am saying to friends that the swine flu is like the normal one, you have fever, headaches, sore throat, but one week later, you die (less than 2% of the time)"

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