WHO raises pandemic alert to second-highest level
cnn.com
cnn.com
For this to happen, the virus needs a foothold in the southern hemisphere. In the north, with the approaching summer, the conditions for flu spread are becoming more and more reduced. In the south, however, they are getting increasingly better.
I'm currently working in real time modeling of H1N1 spread. We're constantly refining the model as new data becomes available. I've posted the link where you can get the latest updates: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=583358 but it went pretty much unnoticed. We're planning on having updates every 24-48h, so just keep checking http://www.gleamviz.org .
In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.
In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.
Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/inde...
Our regular seasonal flu viruses are 'pandemic' across the world every year. They just don't trigger alerts because they're familiar.
... and don't worry until you really know this will be more dangerous for you than your traffic accident risk will be over a few years. (Most alarms like this are duds, afaik.)
0.00003% of the US has been infected with this disease (some already recovered) and it passes in a few days and it's been fully airborne for more than a week.
Similarly, if their gross estimate of 2700+ worldwide cases is true, that's 0.00004% of the world's population.
The only death in the US is a 22 month old who was visiting from Mexico. I feel very sorry for that family, but it seems odd to make this the 2nd highest level of emergency, doesn't it?
> Common seasonal flu kills 250,000 to 500,000 people every year worldwide, far more than the current outbreak of swine flu. But there is a vaccine for seasonal flu.
So unless I'm missing something _big_ here, like how much more contagious it is, or how much greater the fatality rate is... none of which is said clearly in the article... it really sounds like just media scare.
I'm guessing the lack of a vaccine makes some people nervous in case it mutates and becomes more virulent, but from a practical purpose that's at least two maybe's away from a real problem, with a vaccine which is probably not so far away.
So pandemic, maybe. A problem for the average joe? Not even close.
It is an immune system overreaction that usually kills you with this virus.
UPDATE: A better answer would be to worry to an extent proportional to the probability of other things that can kill you such as a car accident. So it's important to know the percentage of people in your neighborhood who are sick.
"spend the next few weeks drunk and sleep-deprived to keep yours suppressed"
Of course, I was planning on doing that anyway...
Q: Why is it more deadly in Mexico than anywhere else it’s surfaced?
CNN: The short answer is investigators don’t know. The deaths have occurred in healthy people, as opposed to those usually most at risk from the flu: the young, the old and those with compromised immune systems. The same thing happened in recent years with the SARS and avian flu outbreaks. The spreading virus starts a cascade within the body as the immune system overreacts. Fluid builds up in the lungs and inflammatory cells throughout the body react to the infection.
So, there may be a lot more people in Mexico that have been infected but they have not been detected because they did not end in a hospital.
The rest of the answer is about other viruses better understood in hindsight, and might apply if current patterns in Mexico are better understood. Which they aren't yet.
It makes you wonder if there has been an outbreak in Europe's past that has protected the decedents of the survivors.
Pure speculation, I know, but intriguing.
I don't know where you're getting this from. AFAIK there has been one lethality case in the US. Also the majority of the Mexican population is of mixed race rather than purely native American.
>The one thing that they are stumped about is that the foreigners (mostly "white" - of European descent) that have contracted the disease seem to have an easier time dealing with it. It makes you wonder if there has been an outbreak in Europe's past that has protected the decedents of the survivors.
It could also simply be that foreigners (white and of European descent) have better living conditions and healtcare systems than 80% of the population of mexico city.
The lethal case in the US was of a Mexican 3 year old.
>It could also simply be that foreigners (white and of European descent) have better living conditions and healtcare systems than 80% of the population of mexico city.
Possible. But if that were the case, it would be more likely to follow the normal elderly and weak pattern than the strong and healthy.
It may have already been everywhere for weeks -- but disappeared unnoticed into the normal flu background until the latest alarm spread. That could, curiously enough, be a good sign -- it means it's not so incredibly worse than other flus.
The deaths reported from Mexico could be due to coinfection with something else -- bacterial pneumonia or TB -- and are not yet completely understood in context. Witness, for example, that WHO considers only 7 swine-flu-related deaths in Mexico as definitively confirmed (compared to the 100-plus reported from less rigorous sources).
A normal flu season results in ~36,000 deaths in the US each year... a hundred a day, though usually among those especially vulnerable for other reasons. So there's lots of potential to misattribute things in this period of hyper-attention.
This is exactly what I thinking. e.g. A coworker came to Mexico from Sacramento CA a month a go. When he went back home he spent a week in bed with a really bad flu. I am thinking he could have acquired the swine flu then but no one noticed.
1. Realize you don't control it, so there is no reason to worry about it in the first place.
2. Realize that it is a "wimpier" flu strain than usual and unless you are a small child or lack any remotely decent medical care it is practically impossible to die from the flu in the first place.
Fixed!