Treaty gives Hong Kong option to reject Snowden extradition to the US
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I don't buy this guy's argument for going to Hong Kong, e.g. that has a history of free speech, and its supposed autonomy from the mainland -- even after all of these years, Chinese pressure prevents Taiwan from international recognition. You think they are just letting Hong Kong do its own thing? He seems intelligent and must be aware of this, especially having worked in the intelligence world. The Chinese firewall is the most renowned internet chokehold in the world. The Chinese are known for hacking Google to spy on their own citizens.
I just have to think of it if I were in his situation. If I were a freedom-loving individual looking to seek asylum, I'd probably first look at countries that granted asylum in similar cases that weren't internationally renowned for suppressing freedom of speech. Assange has asylum with Ecuador, why not go there first? China is just such a weird choice for someone who is purportedly morally driven to his actions by privacy violations.
Not only that, this situation has nothing but upsides for the Chinese. It looks great for them to expose another world power is spying on their own citizens (and weakens any diplomatic arguments the US has when pressuring them to open up free speech and the internet). It's also a nice thorn to retort after all of the recent hubbub about Chinese government hackers. If he wasn't an active spy in the traditional definition feeding the Chinese information, he is certainly an asset by circumstance -- why wouldn't they manipulate him to their benefit?
Now, that's not saying the US did the right thing -- we kind of fucked ourselves here having PRISM in place first of all -- but I am not sure this guy is the lone ranger whistleblower hero is painting himself to be.
That is exactly right. Its much too convenient. This guy was probably a PRC mole/sleeper. Who defects to a country that still executes dissidents?
> In Dulles UAL lounge listening to 4 US intel officials saying loudly leaker & reporter on #NSA stuff should be disappeared recorded a bit
I live in DC and know tons of people who work for the government. Guess what? They are people like you and I, and in a lot of cases less capable or bright (which is why they go for cushy government jobs). They get drunk and they act like assholes in groups, you hear them talking garbage all the time on the metro and in restaurants.
Just because these people (who in all likelihood are bureaucrats with no power at all) say they want this guy dead doesn't mean they have any power or ability to send out the hit squad, or killing reporters is now US Policy. It's just as meaningless as me randomly saying "god, I wish Karl Rove was dead."
He would have been much more convincing saying "yeah, I know that China doesn't have the greatest record on privacy, but I have several friends in Hong Kong that I hope will support my asylum case." Boom. Totally makes sense, and doesn't sound like a rehearsed rationalization that could have been scripted by the PRC.
It's the age of airplanes, dude. They aren't sending out the stagecoaches with deputies. Physical distance doesn't really matter if someone with access to the resources the US government has is out to get you. I think this guy is well aware of that (as you should be, too).
This is totally personal speculation based on how I would have behaved if I were in his position as a whistleblower that was a strong human rights privacy advocate. To me, his actions are incongruous with his statements. If he's not being manipulated by the Chinese, the other option is that he is just naive or careless and picked Hong Kong without considering what kind of political implications it would have, and was either unaware of its history in human rights and privacy, or chose to ignore it.
I'm fully willing to believe my opinion will change if more facts come in; just as it it stands now, I remain skeptical.
I personally don't think he has any PRC ties, however it does foster an interesting discussion, and isn't that what HN is all about?
I don't think that's the case here, however we really don't have any concrete evidence either way.
As far as law enforcement goes, you're spot on, physical distance is the least of anyone's concerns. The first consideration for law enforcement would probably be "How willingly will this jurisdiction work with us?"
We've personally had assets and servers seized by the "Commercial Crimes Division" of the Hong Kong police, at the sole request of U.S. Law Enforcement.
With that being said, you may be correct in your speculation, especially since Hong Kong is definitely not known for it's free speech in regards to governmental or criminal matters, if he were truly going somewhere based on only their 'reputation', there are far more viable choices (Ex: Iceland or Ecuador)
Something is definitely fishy.
But I agree, things seem fishy.
I don't know. It is probably better than many other choices. One major problem with choosing Ecuador is that if Ecuador is involved in both Snowden and Assange there are potentially large problems for them. I don't doubt for a moment that Correa would love the fight, but I do doubt that it would last past one administration.
He's the underdog. Wherever he chooses, he bears a huge level of risk. There is a lot to recommend HongKong.
But in addition, the fact that it poses important options for resisting extradition provides another way of fighting. If the Obama Administration wants this to go quietly they do not want a long extradition fight showing up in papers followed by a long court trial.
Cynically, it's leverage and they'll have the moral high ground in the eyes of the world.
The US is a valued trading partner of both HK and China. One doesn't generally go about pissing off their major trading partners unless there's something in it for them.
There are really only two things Snowden can give HK or China:
- Further intelligence. This seems unlikely if his story is what he says it is.
- A giant PR coup domestically, putting the Chinese government, for once, on the right side of a human rights/democracy/transparency issue.
That second part depends largely on how much the general population can be made to care about the issue. The Chinese won't hang onto a highly wanted American criminal that the US federal government desperately wants tried, not unless they can extract something out of the deal.
http://www.appledaily.com.tw/appledaily/article/internationa...
Having a high profile example to point to will make convincing others easier.
Beijing, which gave its consent for Hong Kong to sign the agreement, also has a right of veto if it believes the surrender of a fugitive would harm the "defence, foreign affairs or essential public interest or policy'' of the People's Republic of China. In short, the treaty makes Snowden's fate a matter of political expediency not just in Hong Kong but in Beijing.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/09/edward-snowden-h...
1. Let the US know he has had the offer and ask them to step down before he has to take it.
2. Take the Chinese up on the offer.
3. Reject the Chinese offer, turn himself in, and return to the US in shackles specifying he did not sell out his country. If he can manage to do that publicly, that might also be a great great gamble that might turn out in his favor.
The more I think about it, the more I am impressed with his choice.
I strongly agree with you that I too am impressed with each calculated decision he has taken...even down to the press release.
The press release is also key in his decision to reveal him self. By doing so, how suspicious would it be if he "committed suicide." An example of how the press can protect him, you need not look farther than Julian Assange.
And even when it comes to the initial press release, the only reason I believe that it was revealed in the order that it did was for competition. He seeked the Guardian (in England), and compelled the Post (in the US) to publish. In media, it's all about being first, royalties, and copyrights. Check the link below.
I'd have to say, his execution of his plan, was very well calculated.
First 100% agreed with your points.
As a tangent.
BTW, if I ever start a hacktivist group I will use a medieval split tally stick for a logo.
Why?
In 1834, the humble tally stick accomplished what Guy Fawkes was unable to. Look up "1834 parliament tally stick" to see what I mean.
In memory of LulzSec: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAYL5H46QnQ
There's something deliciously ironic about trying to dispose of tax receipts causing both houses of parliament to be burned to the ground.
Never, never underestimate the humble tally stick ;-)