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I'm not really able to look at performance versus TopCoder rank (partly because I don't know my peers' TC rank because I'm not that into TC), but if I had to guess, I would think that there is no correlation. It's simply a matter of where one puts one's developmental efforts.

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Given the same amount of time spent on TC, you'd definitely have the expected correlation (with the usual IQ common cause if nothing else). But I agree that once someone gets reasonably competitive in an area (esp. one w/ game-like mechanics and public recognition), they're at risk for overspecialization.

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