Once the ASICs replace the other mining systems, the correction estimates will be more accurate.
edit: monthly
I would argue that it has less; kids have always loved stuffed animals, whereas no one found intrinsic value in a cryptographic hash until someone thought to brand and promote one.
A Bitcoin's value comes from the Bitcoin system, which does have some utility as a sort of distributed ledger. The problem is there are already plenty of e-cash systems already in place, virtually all of which are easier to use than Bitcoin.
As a currency, Bitcoin's volatility is a major disadvantage. No one will spend a Bitcoin if they think it will be worth more tomorrow. No one will take a Bitcoin if they think it will be worth less. Success as a speculative investment is generally antithetical to success as a currency.