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It's been awhile since I read Fooled by Randomness but I think Taleb's point was that TMND only looks at those who became rich, it doesn't look at those who didn't get rich following the same strategy.

I haven't read TMND so I can't say if that's true, but your post doesn't refute his point.

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I see what you're getting at, but the key point to understand is that the authors of TMND were able to find a pattern among the millionnaires they interviewed. If these successes were primarily based on chance you wouldn't be able to discern a pattern of behavior because the paths they took to becoming millionaire would be wildly different. They weren't, though. There's the old saying "luck favors the prepared". These folks all probably had their ups and downs in life, but because of their frugality and fiscal responsibility they were able to smooth out the valleys and maximize the hills.

This is the line of reasoning Taleb criticizes. I haven't digested his criticism fully enough to fairly summarize it, but I think it's worth a look.

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