Why The PS4 should already be out. | Hacker News Reader

Why The PS4 should already be out.

rumor2release.com

5 pointsgamerDude4 comments

First: Oculus Rift is not a living room game console competitor.

Second: Ouya has not even reached the open market. It might do well, but it has several major hurdles to get past before it could be thought of as any sort of threat to the XBOX or Playstation platforms. Ditto Steam Box. (Although I'd put my money on Valve over Ouya.)

Third: No talk in this article about how Sony and Microsoft might need to fight off other very large players that want to take over your TV set? My new Samsung TV has games like Angry Birds built right into it. They suck, but it's definitely a sign that they might move further in that direction. And I assume Apple will eventually open up the Apple TV platform for third party developers to release games. Those seem like much bigger threats to Sony and MS.

Especially Apple. AAA game studios already release games for the Mac -- porting to a new Apple TV flavor of iOS (or whatever) might not be that big of a step. And, unlike Ouya (for example), Apple has a proven ability to attract massive numbers of independent developers to build for their platforms.

Anyway, I don't necessarily disagree with his point that Sony and Microsoft might need to move a bit more nimbly on these new systems, but I don't think the author of the article has really drilled down to the true reasons. He's kind of fixated on a couple of very green products that have attracted some niche attention from developers and gamers but definitely do not have any kind of demonstrated mainstream appeal.

The author seems to make some strange conclusions. For example, he says Microsoft should have released the 360 because the number of games being released for the Xbox had peaked. But, did the no. of games for Xbox decline because it was "old" or because MS had announced the 360 lead developers to focus their efforts on the coming console? He then says the market excitement had waned out, but what about the PS2? When the PS3 was released the PS2 was still in full force. The year the PS3 was released the PS2 got FFXII, Guitar Hero II, Kingdom Hearts II, and God of War II. In fact one could argue that the PS3 was released long before the market excitement for the PS2 had died down.

It doesn't look like PS4 should already be out, Sony has just been following a 6 year cycle (PS1 in 1994, PS2 in 2000, and PS3 in 2006), and if it takes 6 years to develop the technology, theres no point in rushing it.

I agree, but the 6 year cycle would have hit perfectly last holiday season and, with the WiiU lacking, would have satiated a large section of console gamers that are waiting for more powerful hardware.

And the extra year isn't getting them much on the hardware front. If anything, the extra time is being spent on the service and social platform which, although necessary and important, may mean the difference between a big head start and an even race.

I don't see either the PS4 or the Durango doing much better than the Wii U. I think how much better they do growth-wise will be based entirely on how much money they are willing to burn for proper software exclusives and a reasonably priced console. It is the games that will sell the consoles, and I do not see third-parties flocking to more expensive development costs with incredibly low potential consumers. What incentive do third-parties have to develop for new hardware when the old hardware has a much higher install base?

I for one expect all next generation consoles to have growth rates similar to that of the Gamecube. I do not think it matters much when the consoles launch, either.

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