What If We Never Run Out of Oil?
theatlantic.com
theatlantic.com
It makes me wonder if we are not completely misunderstanding the role of energy, making it into some kind of threat or something to fear instead of a huge enabler of human progress. Perhaps if we want flying cars and jet packs, if we want burgeoning economies with more employment and GDP, we should be doing anything physically possible to reduce the cost and increase the availability of energy to the average person.
You're free to solve that in any way you want -- nuclear makes the most sense to me -- but if we have our heads on backwards, then we have a lot of well-meaning people who are actively trying to destroy our future by preaching conservation. Without knowing it.
Energy very well may be the 20th century's internet. The more everybody has it, the better off we all are.
A corollary might be that the more energy available per capita, the greater the environmental footprint of per capita. E.g. the McMansions of the megasprawl: rolling hills of former farmland are graded and leveled off, enormous balloon-like, energy inefficient stick frame houses pop up, and twice a day their inhabitants wait in lines of SUVs on the clogged roads between the exurbs and the suburban office parks. The entire enterprise is completely dependent on vast quantities of energy being available to participants in the system. People are comfortable in their SUVs and McMansions, and aspire to this lifestyle. But the environmental footprint per capita is enormous. Without some penalty for the external costs (which are long latency and hard to measure), there is nothing to slow the spread of this pattern of economic development.
In this light, when you say:
Energy very well may be the 20th century's internet. The more everybody has it, the better off we all are.
I suspect it is more like an upside-down U-shaped curve. People are indeed better off when we have sufficient energy per capita, but when we have a massive superabundance of energy, we negatively affect our environment to the point that real consequences start to kick in. Unfortunately, it is hard to know where we are on that upside-down U, and it is hard (impossible?) to distinguish overwrought hand-wringing about impending environmental doom from the real thing, until the real thing has started to have obvious, severe, and sustained effects.
I guess we are officially in denial now.
Jokes aside though, higher prices for fossil fuels are a reality and regardless of the size of future reserves, we do have to deal with that at least. The same goes for global warming. Regardless of whether we are the cause of it or not, we have to deal with the consequences. The same goes for nuclear energy. Regardless of whether more modern reactors are safe or not, neither Chernobyl nor Fukushima are solved problems and they won't get solved for another few thousand years.
Hence, my take is that we need to progress to a culture of perpetual sustainability and independence of as many external variables as possible.
It isn't about running out, it's about cost and sustainability. Oil is getting more expensive and it isn't sustainable.
See:
http://www.npr.org/2012/04/11/150444802/where-does-america-g...
"Many geologists suspect that gas hydrates play an important role in stabilizing the seafloor. Drilling in these oceanic deposits could destabilize the seabed, causing vast swaths of sediment to slide for miles down the continental slope. Evidence suggests that such underwater landslides have occurred in the past, with devastating consequences. The movement of so much sediment would certainly trigger massive tsunamis similar to those seen in the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004."
Sounds dodgy to me :(
Kraut here. I have yet to experience this or read about it in the news, I think the author is either exaggerating or misinformed.
What is true is that renewables already are putting a lot of strain on the net and there are plans to invest in a lot of new power lines and switches to better stabilize the grid, but the tone of the article is just ridiculous.
It is fun to see how this is not talk in the media...
That's true if you just look at CO2, but if you take methane leakage into account things aren't so pretty. Several studies have claimed that the overall greenhouse effect of fracked methane is as bad as coal's.
The gas companies dispute that, saying the data is poor. They're right about that, and the reason is that those same companies refuse to install monitoring equipment.
I could easily squeak by w/ current electric car tech. I only need 40 miles a day to cover my routine.
The problem is that I can afford $500-$5000 used cars -- I can't justify spending $20,000+ on a new car.
That being said: I'd like an EV as soon as I can fit it in my budget -- I'm a petrolhead, and I need to do my part to ensure there's fuel left for my hobbyist vehicles and all the supercars I know and love.
So-called "peak oil" (which we are probably at) isn't about "running out". It's a behavioral effect (peak production) insofar as we have some choice (as a collective) in how much we produce. The Hubbert model says that "peak" occurs at the 50-percent point. Based on what I've read, I'd guess that (a) we are at peak production and will be at-or-near this plateau of 80-85Mb/day for ~20 years, but (b) decline will be slow and some of that will be the good kind (alternatives), and (c) we've used less than 50% of the world supply (meaning the symmetry of the Hubbert model isn't the case).
Either way, we need to start working on alternatives. Global warming is a lot scarier than "peak oil". Markets work, and the bad case of "peak oil" that I consider credible is that our standard-of-living becomes like that of Eastern Europe (say, Hungary) for ~20 years. I've been there. It's not that bad. You have to hang-dry your clothes; you get used to that stuff. Climate change could kill off the species. That's much scarier.
Personally, I'm a fan of modern nuclear technologies, as a bridge until we're all-green. Most of the anti-nuclear prejudice in the US comes from known design flaws in plants that are over 30 years old that were built before people knew what they were doing. Modern, passive-safety nuclear plants just don't have those TMI/Fukushima/Chernobyl risks. There are dangers (perfectly safe energy production does not exist) but they're much less severe.
Pff, just buy the expensive stuff on credit like everything else these days and let the next generation deal with it.. ;)
Totally agree with OP.
I do that, and I live in Britain, which I believe is a lot better-off than Hungary. I don't know anyone who doesn't!
Except for trousers, which eventually get a hole in the crotch. Fucking trousers...
A thousand thanks for posting this. I thought I had some physical deformity because my last two (very-often-worn) jeans wore through in the crotch in less than a year. (Of course that made other aspects of my life more convenient).
Good to know I'm not the only one.
UK GDP per capita is about 75% higher than Hungary.
I'm in the UK as well, we also hang dry our clothes in a laundry room - using a dryer is only for emergencies!
Just to be extra clear, this isn't a value judgement, it's literally a linguistic equation. "better off" is a british euphemism employed to avoid gauche phrases like "earns more than."
Or towels. Put a towel in for 10 min, then let hang dry, next time you use it you will be in fluffy heaven.
Also avoid any fabric softener, they decrease the efficiency of towels.
Whilst on this important topic, whilst a good egyption cotton is best, plenty of the cheaper ones we get marketed in the UK as egyptian cotton are not well made. Trust your fingers and give them all a good rub in the shop before buying.
That's actually a great way to utilize solar energy, and the done thing here in Italy, which, despite having its problems, is not a poor country.
In winter, you can put the clothes near a radiator/heater and that's pretty effective too.
With my family of five, this would be a nightmare.
Line-drying also may not work well in high-density housing.
http://www.gettyimages.it/detail/foto/italy-naples-drying-la...
Family size? We have two small kids and hang-drying works fine. There are times I wish we had a dryer, but mostly I don't miss it too much.
http://www.pulleymaid.com/classic_clothes_airer.htm
We are in a double upper flat - so no access to hang clothes outside.
I use a tumble drier almost exclusively (in London these days), but I will readily admit it is out of laziness and not because it is in any way a problem to do other than in tiny apartments etc. that might lack the space (but then again the Italian tendency to hang lines in back alleys etc. in many cities shows that even that is less about what is possible and more about what we're used to).
To each his own, I guess. But as I said, dryers were invented for a reason. That reason is mostly convenience. I grew up in a home that hung laundry out to dry. I now live on a large enough property that no one without binoculars would know if I hung my laundry outside, but yet I use an electric clothes dryer. Why? It's infinitely easier and more convenient to just toss clothes from the washer into the dryer right next to it, push a button and walk away knowing they'll all be dry and fluffy when I get back.
Don't discount convenience; it's the other Mother of Invention.
a) I think decline will start at latest by 2020, probably a year or two earlier. I came to this conclusion by looking at past declines and current regional production data. Exports decline has already started in about 2005 - oil producing countries consume a larger part of production by themselves. Major oil price fluctuations can be damaging, because too high prices cause demand destruction and too low will bankrupt marginal producers.
b) We don't know what type of decline to expect, but it might be steeper due to EOR (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_oil_recovery) techniques depleting the fields faster.
c) We don't really know how large part of the global recoverable supply we've consumed, because it is likely several OPEC-countries have reported exaggerating reserve data in past in order to increase their production share.
BTW. We have -30°C winters and we still get by without them. We just hang our clothes indoors, next to a radiator.
However, that's in part because the eastern half of the U.S. is very humid. Even in the summer, anything that is out of direct sunlight will take a long time to dry. A typical 30-degree summer day in NYC will have a dewpoint of 23 (and yes, it's as icky as it sounds). In California (where 30 degrees means low humidity and is quite nice) you could probably hang-dry.
Where do you think dryer lint comes from?
Me too, liquid-fueled reactors, in addition to having a safe rest state, can utilize nearly all of the fuel in them, as opposed to the very low utilization of solid fuel designs (current tech).
An MSR using much more common Thorium could potentially be used (economically) to produce carbon-neutral fossil fuel replacements.
Honestly I always figured the global warming hysteria was mainly a cover for pushing "anti-peak oil" policies without having to admit the Emperor is naked. Cutting carbon emissions by 10%, a carbon tax in Australia, etc., doesn't strike me as really being able to put a dent in a catastrophic global warming were it actually occurring, but it does seem a reasonable approach to reduce fossil fuel consumption in the near-term.
On the other hand, maybe you're talking about other negative environmental effects that are linked to activies that cause CO2 emissions.
I think well being of people should be maximized, and in the optimal situation there shouldn't be any lifestyle changes or "austerity" measures to reduce CO2 emissions if there's no reason to reduce CO2 emissions. If they're required, then of course it's reasonable to adopt them.
Bingo. I'm not focusing so much on the carbon emissions themselves so much as the side-effects and purposes of those emissions. Removing mountaintops to get at coal and risking oily beaches and terrorist attacks to get at oil. Encouraging attitudes that careless disposability and physical inactivity are OK and normal.
> I think well being of people should be maximized The problem with maximizing people's well-being is that "well-being" has been bastardized to encompass all sorts of things that were once considered luxurious, superficial, wasteful, and pure convenience.
I wonder if they said similar things 30 years ago, too.
TMI was certainly an economic issue, but it was never a public health concern, even in the middle of the meltdown. In fact TMI was a validation of the public safety concept of nuclear power plant containment design; despite suffering a full as-bad-as-it-gets meltdown there was only a minimal release of radioactive gases to the environment.
As far as Fukushima, there were actually two different sites, Dai-ichi and Dai-ni. The Dai-ni reactors were a very slight spec bump up from the Dai-ichi reactors due to being started later. Both sites suffered the same earthquake & tsunami; all of the operational Dai-ichi reactors melted down, none of the operational Dai-ni reactors suffered damage. The disasters were beyond design basis for both.
So even 40-50 years ago they were continuing to make design improvements to increase the safety margin of nuclear power to account for "unknown unknowns".
Meanwhile even today coal plants pump carcinogenic exhaust directly to atmosphere and people judge it as an acceptable tradeoff because the damage is constant.
The fact that Dai-ni only almost lost backup power was probably a major boon. If they had lost active cooling, things probably would have been just as tenuous as they were at Dai-ichi.
I don't know about the US, but most resistance in Europe is not "prejudice" about plant safety, but educated concerns about waste and waste-storage safety.
As long as the pro-nuclear crowd circumvents addressing those concerns but tries to make the other side look like dumb scared peasants, I'll be on the anti-nuclear side.
For one reason and one reason only: I may not be able to judge how safe modern nuclear energy is, but I'm damn well able to perceive which side is being the most dishonest. If I can't trust people to have an honest debate, I'm definitely not trusting these same people with nuclear plants, however safe it may be possible to do in theory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onkalo_spent_nuclear_fuel_repos...
Congrats.
Edit: Just to be clear, I belong to the part of the population you can convince of nuclear energy, at least as an intermediate solution. But not this way.
I'm sure the proof is obvious to you, but how about explaining it for the rest of us?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_geological_repository
It is anything but a solved problem. And of course none of this talks about decommissioning reactors and what to do with the low level nuclear waste that is the decommissioned reactor.
Plus, there's an epistemological asymmetry here. We can know that it's not yet solved (and I would agree that we do know this right now). We cannot know that it is solved, at least not without waiting tens of thousands of years. Even if we escape current frying pans, we'll still have a fire to deal with.
So I agree with onemorepassword's claim that nawitus's comment is indicative of dishonesty, because it demonstrates a level of confidence that no reasonable well-informed person would have, about the human ability to control events in advance, for a hundred thousand years.
(I don't agree with all of what onemorepassword says, especially the implication that the pro-nuclear crowd is more dishonest than the anti-nuclear.... 99% of the utterances by the anti-nuclear crowd are VERY dishonest.)
A few points:
Onkalo is in Finland, and the storage facility is ONLY for waste from Finnish nuclear plants. It also isn't complete as far as I'm aware. I see that Sweden are also building the same style of storage facility in Östhammar, but I don't see any similar construction going on in the USA, France, UK, Japan etc. It may be happening, but there definitely isn't a lot of press about it. This leads me to agree with the grand-parent's point about honesty. Surely, if this form of storage is actually a solution, everyone would be doing it and advertising loudly that they were.
Secondly, the KBS-3 standard's final step involves storing the waste for 100,000 years! And, according to the Wikipedia article on it (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KBS-3, linked from the article you provided the URL for) there were some questions raised about the copper capsules used as one of the storage layers, and the fact that the Finnish company building the Onkalo facility (Posiva, owned by the 2 main players in Finnish nuclear plants) seems to be being duplicitous in the way these questions are being dealt with. From the article "independent research conducted in Finland has supported the results of Szakálos's group. However, in public, Posiva dismissed the independent research in Sweden and Finland, referring to its own safety studies."
So, to quote the grandparent comment, "As long as the pro-nuclear crowd circumvents addressing those concerns ... I'll be on the anti-nuclear side."
One of the reasons why market capitalism works in many (not all) cases is that it produces relative excellence (in pricing, new product discovery, and sometimes allocation of resources) out of mediocrity. Firms and most people are mediocre agents with mediocre aims, mediocre ethics, and mediocre execution and reliability. Yet, through "magic", we get a system that excels in comparison to any planned economy.
When we start talking about material that remains dangerous for 10,000 years, however, typical corporate mediocrity (in ethics and execution) is no longer acceptable. When we can't trust the players it gets unpleasant.
I don't know that there are easy answers, though. We can't fully trust private companies, but governments are only marginally better (and that's because of superior attention to incentives and checks-and-balances in political infrastructure; it took hundreds of years and many wars to get that). We need energy, and we need it with near-100% reliability even though we cannot trust fully any of the agents providing it, and even though we're not fully aware of the black swan risks (tasteless Deepwater Horizon pun here) that come with any endeavor that affects the earth so much as energy production.
The "radioactive for a long time" thing is really hopelessly misunderstood. The unique thing about producing something which is dangerous for a long time is not that it stays dangerous, it's that it ever stops being dangerous.
You mine "coal" and you unearth ore that contains elements like arsenic, cadmium, lead, antimony, selenium and thallium. The same goes for most mining operations. You want your rare earth metals for your wind turbines and hybrid batteries, same deal. Geological deposits are rarely elementally pure. That is some awful stuff, and it never decays. It sticks around until the end of time. So if you're worried about the future, worry more about "until the end of time" than "for thousands of years."
But let's keep talking about nuclear. Where does 10,000 years come from? What you're referring to is the half life of Plutonium-239 at ~24,000 years. Pu-239 is weapons grade. The problem with it is very much not that we don't know what to do with it. The problem is we do know what to do with it. But you can't stop Iran from getting the bomb by not building new reactors in Virginia. Moreover, if you have no desire to blow up a city you can mix Pu-239 with Pu-240 which makes it useless for bombs but great for reactor fuel, and using it as reactor fuel destroys it in a lot fewer than 24,000 years. The other byproducts with multi-thousand year half lives are the same thing -- reactor fuel. Isotopes of Uranium and Thorium. They're actinides which are either fissile or can reasonably be converted to fissile isotopes.
If you like irrationally scary numbers, Thorium-232 has a half life of 14 BILLION years. The thing is, Th-232 isn't produced by reactors, it's the most common isotope found in the ground. It's fuel, not waste. And it's not even very radioactive -- the longer the half life of an isotope, the more stable it is and the less radioactive it is.
The most problematic components of "nuclear waste" are isotopes of Strontium and Cesium that have half lives of a few decades and are things you very much do not want to get into the soil or the water. But that is no different than any of the variety of poisonous and toxic chemicals we deal with on an industrial scale every day. And they have significant commercial value as radiation sources e.g. in nuclear medicine. You do have to be careful in handling and storing them, but how is that different than any other sensitive industrial use chemicals other than OMG NUKULAR?
Russia has had a fast reactor in commercial use for several years now, and several of the small modular designs are fast reactors. There are molten salt efforts ongoing in several countries, including a billion-dollar effort in China, at least two startups in the U.S., and another in Canada.
Once we're using all our fuel, the only remaining waste is the fission products, which become less radioactive than the original ore after a couple centuries.
What's that, you say? There are no places in Europe a thousand miles from where anyone lives? Oh. That could prove to be a problem. Maybe Uzbekistan could help.
Just FYI, hang-drying is a poor metric for comparing standards of living. It's very common all over the world, in affluent societies such as Germany, the UK and Scandinavia. It's not about whether you can afford modern dryer technology, it's about whether your apartment has the space for one. I know mine doesn't.
Setting a fan on the clothes will dry them much faster, and it's still much more efficient than a heated dryer.