But they're not predicting a single piece of tech, they're predicting the success of a platform, which is really Amazon's commitment and engineering capability. You can't predict what features AWS will have in 2-3 years, but you can predict that they'll take a large chunk of the hosting business and how much that is worth.
Bezos is committed to this, they have the head start and the engineering chops (or they can buy them in) so I'd say it is a fairly good bet.
Predicting the weather is easier than that... weather is cyclical.
Not in my part of the world! (Ireland)
Usually I bring sunglasses and an umbrella with me each morning, just in case.