Denmark: 1,000 Megawatts Of Offshore Wind, And No Signs of Slowing Down
forbes.com
forbes.com
They were incredible to look at, just mesmerizing. They were beautiful, gorgeous in more than just their form. That something so bold and elegant could create meaningful amounts of power blew my mind. I remembered reading about lakes and ponds in New Hampshire that had no persistent human contact but tested positive for mercury from coal plants. Looking at these windmills was like staring into a vision of the future. Looking at them, I had never felt so optimistic about technology before.
When I got home I went on the internet to read about wind power and see if there were any initiatives in my home state or Massachusetts. The negativity I found in the papers was its own mind-boggle.
Do you know what they complained about? The view.
I love looking at windmills too but then I don't look and listen to them all day.
As far as power generation I'm amazed the ground windmill approach is as popular as it is. It's not efficient. It has serious limitations. Seems like a craze. But then the incredibly inefficient coal plants were a craze too. Electric lights and vacuum cleaners, how did we live without them! We can make coal plants far more efficient. A 10% efficiency increase would be bigger than the renewable industry in the US. We can also make wind kites which make a lot more sense. Lets see if we bother.
Is looking at them significantly worse than looking at the car traffic on a major street in the rush hour? As far as the sound is concerned, I doubt that the effects are anything more than purely psychological. There are established hygienic limits for a reason.
If I had to hear that pulsing all day, every day, during my sleep, for the rest of my life...I could see it being a problem.
I've seen some studies that indicated that the infra-sound levels from city traffic are significantly stronger than the noise coming from wind turbines conforming to established noise regulations. Do people have problems with the wind turbine noise? Some perhaps do, but why isn't the even stronger car noise a reason for a radical change in car noise hygienic limits within cities? It would be a hypocrisy to tackle one due to public pressure and ignore the other.
EDIT: Oh, and I also vaguely recall that the low-frequency sound caused by the wind interacting with buildings around you is also supposed to be stronger than the same frequency sound coming from distant wind turbines. (The stronger the wind, the stronger the noise from both sources, so it's always comparable.) It makes sense, if you think about it. The law of inverse squares and all that jazz.
"If I had to hear that pulsing all day, every day, during my sleep, for the rest of my life...I could see it being a problem."
I live next to a major city exit road. Before that, I lived in a house that had a freight railway station across the street. I've never noticed any problems.
That said, the question of why those people are living in the middle of nowhere doesn't come up at all. I think that's the more important issue. If you want to reduce the environmental footprint, reducing the size of sprawl and suburban/rural population size would save a lot of energy.
For you, no problems. For others, there might be. And if you do have a problem for example falling asleep when there is sound, the sound from the turbines is nasty as with such low sound you can't block it with earplugs. I'm not saying you should care, just a fyi that some people do have to care about this for their own sanity.
I can't even imagine what it is like living even closer to one.
The only problem described in the article is having too much energy (crikey Moses, what a nightmare, we have to fix the grid). If a wind turbine falls over, the impact is a little less than if a tsunami envelops a nuclear plant, isn't it? Not to mention dealing with waste for hundreds or thousands of years? (I'm not anti-nuclear, just not delusional about its downfalls, and let's face it, there are many. Thorium has waste too.)
So your argument is that if a country uses wind power, then that's evidence that it's better than other forms of energy production? That's a non-sequiter. There are many countries that produce 25% or more of the electricity using coal, nuclear, hydro etc. I'm not arguing that wind power cannot be used at a large scale. I'm arguing that other forms or energy production are better.
>The only problem described in the article
I didn't claim that the article provides the arguments that I hold for my opinions.
I should know better than to get involved in threads like these since they're just mud-sling contests. Between you and penny500, I'm about out of HN patience for the day.
Just because a country does something, it doesn't mean it's the smartest thing to day (you can deduce that logically by realizing that different countries adopt different policies).
25% of its electric power demand. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Denmark#Overview seems to put that at less than 5% of total energy (production minus export is 230 TWh in 2010; electricity production 35 TWh) corrections welcome; couldn't find a better source without effort)
You might see that as pedantry, but since I'm an American I'm acutely aware of how Americans like to say "that would never work" when what they actually mean "that would never work for Americans." The United States is enormous and the #1 consumer of electric energy, yes, and we need to plan accordingly. That doesn't mean ideas are bad in the general, it just means things won't work for us due to our size, as you astutely observe. Google could never scale PostgreSQL to handle their index; does that make PostgreSQL silly? You're automatically writing off all future development that you could never possibly know when you dismiss a technology because it doesn't work in one case.
I like to use every opportunity I get to point that out, so my fellow Americans will stop doing it and making us look like self-absorbed, spoiled people internationally, an assumption reinforced by our general diplomatic and military behavior on the world stage.
Those windmills currently cover 1 million people. The world has 7 billion people and growing quickly. You really think windmills are feasible for Brazil, China, England, France, Germany, Russia, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Iran, Japan, Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa, Spain, Argentina, Turkey, Colombia, Ukraine, or South Korea? (I can list several more if you want.)
Get real.
I am quite calm, and I never wrote that anybody did.
> You, however, did put words into my mouth, which I find quite astonishing.
I think you need to look up what "putting words in someone's mouth" means, because I did nothing of the sort.
> Those windmills currently cover 1 million people. The world has 7 billion people and growing quickly. You really think windmills are feasible for Brazil, China, England, France, Germany, Russia, India, Pakistan, Japan, Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa, Spain, Argentina, or South Korea?
If power consumption had any sort of meaningful relationship with population, I might consider your argument remotely plausible. You're basing your entire argument on the flawed assumption that power consumption scales linearly with population. It doesn't, and you have reading to do[1].
Just as one example, the United States is the world's #1 electric energy consumer, beating both the whole European Union and China, but China has more than quadruple our population. As another example, India's population is quadruple ours, as well, yet about one-quarter our electric energy demand[2].
[1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
[2]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_energy_consumption
Oh, and guess what. China passed the USA in energy consumption in 2010.
Funnily enough, China is also planning a massive investment in wind energy.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-04/10/c_1322989...
Even better link: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2012/07/27/china-l...
It's almost like that's valuable information when we're discussing an electricity generation technology. You wrote this without qualification in terms of what you meant:
"Those windmills currently cover 1 million people. The world has 7 billion people and growing quickly."
I replied to exactly that, and you're calling me economically illiterate for pointing out the economic illiteracy in your original comment? You cannot be that stupid. There is absolutely no way. You have to be a troll.
> China passed the USA in energy consumption in 2010.
Total energy consumption, notably oil due to the sudden increase in automobiles in China since the 1990s once private citizens became able to own automobiles. China currently builds more automobiles than all of Europe, because demand is absolutely through the roof. So it would make sense that China passed the United States in total energy consumption rather quickly. We're discussing electric energy, remember?
I think it is more likely that you simply misunderstood the point he was trying to make, which is that the growth curve[1] matters.
We're discussing electric energy, remember?
You're right to point out the demand for automobiles in China, but that has a great deal to do with rapid urbanization and economic growth, which has had a similar effect on electricity consumption.
[1] http://www.eia.gov/countries/img/charts_png/CH_elecon_img.pn...
> If you say things like "we have a lot of people, so wind power won't work for us,"
Don't you just hate it when people put words into your mouth? Yeah, point me specifically to where I said or implied that.
Electricity consumption depends on GDP. Just google those phrases, and you'll find a plethora of sources to confirm the relationship. I listed a graph for you [1]. Because China is growing at 7%, its electrical consumption will only continue to increase. Yes, if two countries of have similar GDPs, the one with the higher population will consume more electricity.
[1] http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Caryl1.gi...
The cost per capita in the US would be about the same as in Denmark. Probably less, due to economy of scale.
"As advances in turbine technology allow areas of moderate wind resource to be developed, more than a tenfold increase in the wind energy potential is possible. These areas, which cover large sections of the Great Plains and are widely distributed throughout many other sections of the country, have the potential of producing more than three times the nation's current electric consumption."
(Via http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_generation_potential_in_th...)
Population density would be an argument (on average, higher population density means less wind power per capita), but there, New York probably has more land area nearby than Denmark.
Americans, apparrently, while in huge numbers, in thrall to Rand/Objectivism and the Kochs, are not.
Though if you actually need land proportionate in size, and with the geography of Denmark - so flat that the highest point is no more than 171m - to service 300 million people, you might be out of luck (I don't know how much of a role this plays).
Nuclear as commercially implemented today is uninsurable. Even without insurance, a nuclear power plant is an extremely complex, capital intensive machine. The technology may be perfectly sound, with scientists able to control it perfectly, but the problem to me is the top heavy organisational structure. The management water head.
I do agree more research is needed towards passive security compact scale fission using thorium. After investing a lot of money into harvesting wind, that is.
Nuclear power depends on public trust (which is reflected in politics). That trust was just about built up again after Chernobyl when Fukushima happened. Now we'll probably have to wait another 20-30 years (except in China and India, which as both actively pursuing nuclear energy).
Never claimed it did. However, the single property/factor of "does it require long term storage of waste" does not determine environmental friendliness, although it's certainly a factor. There are a multitude of factors that people base different weights on. Carbon emissions is a good starting point, and nuclear is even with wind on that one.
Either way though this whole discussion is just ridiculous. Nuclear isn't competing with wind, it's competing with fossil-fueled thermal generation. All of the wind energy that Denmark is producing per this article is less than 1/6th of a single Canadian nuclear power plant (Bruce N.G.S.).
A team of journalists just discovered the barrels of nuclear waste that the UK threw in the ocean. 17,000 tons of nuclear waste just near the British island Alderney.
"It is just as environmentally friendly." Yeah, sure.
source: http://www.dw.de/atommüllfässer-im-ärmelkanal-entdeckt/av-16...
Or read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asse_II_mine
Bad policies implemented in a single country doesn't determine environmental friendliess of a energy production technology as a whole. Obviously a nuclear power plant is not environmentally friendly if the waste is not taken care of.
"Die britischen Fässer enthalten nach Angaben der IAEA 58 Billionen Becquerel, die belgischen 2,4 Billionen Becquerel Alpha-, Beta und Gammastrahlung. Der EU-Grenzwert für Trinkwasser liegt bei 10 Becquerel pro Liter."
So, there's about 6 * 10^10 Becquerel radiation there, while the EU allows 10 per liter. If so, mixing this with 6 * 10^9 liters of water would dilute it enough to be within EU limits. That's 6 * 10^6 cubic meter. If the stuff got dropped over an area of a square kilometer in a depth of 6 meter, you would already get there.
So, I expect at worst, localized contamination of sea water.
Also, http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs291/en/: "The WHO guidelines for drinking water quality recommend repeated measurements to be implemented if radon in public drinking water supplies exceeds 100 Bq/l.". That puts that 10 Bq/l EU norm into perspective.
Attributing the acts of a government to an entire technology doesn't seem appropriate.
The nuclear power I look forward to, and which i think is the real hero to come, is fusion power. The way it works, it simply cannot physically create disasters similar to fission, because it needs energy to create energy, and if the energy stopped, the output would stop. Additionally to that, it doesn't generate the nuclear waste products associated with fission power, and can thus without worry be installed in more problematic countries.
Pre-Fukushima, most pro nuclear people would argue that the chance of a nuclear accident in an first world country was close to zero. Even I used to argue that.
Now we can say that with new safeguards of more modern reactors that the same kind of accident can't happen again, and it might very well be true. But the voting people will be less inclined to give you the benefit of the doubt. They will rather accept a known and quantified danger instead.
This is the kind of, sloppy mistakes that humans make, and aslong as humans is what keeps nuclear reactors from a disaster, I don't consider them safe, which is not to say that they aren't immensely helpful for the environment and energy production while they are in good condition. But the peoples lack of trust is warranted.
But it's not like Europe doesn't have entrenched economic interests, and it's not like those entrenched interests wouldn't have captured the political process. What's so special about the USA that gives ridiculous outcomes?
1.
If you think of the country of Denmark itself as a large corporation of sorts, its goal in the international market is to go high-end. The workforce is too high-wage to compete on regular manufacturing, cheap worldwide food prices mean the traditionally important agriculture sector now contributes a mere 5% of GDP, and it doesn't have the oil of Norway. So it's the only choice really: to be a leader in high-skill services, R&D, and high-end manufacturing.
[This paragraph is an aside:] This view underpins lots of stuff that goes on in both the governmental and industrial sectors. As one example, there is a goal that within 20 years, 100% of Danes will earn a college degree, and 50% (!) will go on to get a masters degree, in order to position the country's workforce as highly educated, almost like a 6-million-strong consulting shop. They're willing to pay for it, too: there is no tuition, and students receive a modest living stipend. The similarities to a company are surprisingly deep, e.g. the unemployment program is even run a lot like an HR department, viewing un/underemployed people quite literally as potential "human resources" who can be used to plug labor shortages elsewhere, with the right matchmaking and training. On the services side, it's been reasonably successful, though honestly in part due to good fortune in making the transition: Carlsberg and Maersk are huge parts of the Danish economy, despite the fact that actually brewing beer and building/sailing ships are long-gone as mainstays of the economy. They managed to transition into having Danes as the managerial class of global companies when the manufacturing jobs moved elsewhere. It's not hard to imagine an alternate-history scenario where Copenhagen ends up as a poor post-industrial city full of derelict shipyards, instead of a rich post-industrial city full of loft conversions in former shipyards.
Wind energy has been a lynchpin of the R&D and high-end manufacturing part of the strategy for a while now, from both the public and private sides. Denmark's location makes wind a reasonably good choice among the various things you might want to pursue in the energy sector (I wouldn't recommend a solar-based strategy here). And so it's become not only big domestically, but a major export business. Denmark-based Vestas has long been the #1 worldwide wind-turbine manufacturer, one of the few global "#1s" in a country of 6 million. You can aso see it in the "branding strategy" of both the government (http://denmark.dk/en/green-living/wind-energy/) and the industrial sector (http://www.windpower.org/en/). And it spills into other things, e.g. "smart grids" to manage the variable load of wind energy are now a big R&D initiative at the university I'm at, with hopes that Denmark will become a leader in smart-grid tech too.
So what I'm getting at is: domestic wind farms are rather multi-purpose. They do serve a primary function of actually generating energy. But they also serve a secondary function of building up the wind-export sector, and another secondary function of building up a certain image that Denmark wants to project, of a 21st-century R&D and high-end manufacturing hub, and of generally being "ahead".
2.
Many of the wind farms are organized as consumer cooperatives, so have broad-based ownership, which produces built-in supporters. For example, the farm offshore of the island of Amager (just east of Copenhagen) is co-owned 50% by the municipality, and 50% by a cooperative with 10,000 members.
Wind is like water. You can't just slow it down with your turbines and expect no environmental impact. Putting them on the windward side of a mountain reduces the rain fall on the opposite side. Birds die in the blades. It isn't all rainbows and butterflies.
But few people do.
http://www.npr.org/2013/01/29/170588511/killer-kitties-cats-...
"Previous studies had suggested that cats kill about 500 million birds a year. Marra's group came up with something very different. "We estimate that cats kill somewhere between 1.4 and 3.7 billion birds a year," Marra says. "For mammals, it's upward of about 15 billion."
"Marra says based on those new figures, cat-caused mortality far exceeds deaths from other sources, like collisions with cars or wind turbines.
But as far as the new ones: I recently moved offices in Copenhagen, to a 5th-story office looking east towards the Øresund. I think the offshore wind farm there adds substantially to the view (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middelgrunden). It's especially nice on overcast, windy, gray days, when you can see the white turbines rotating in the fog. But it's nice on sunny days too, at least in my opinion. Here's a snapshot from my window: http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/598966_1010047304...
And if you get closer, e.g. at Amager Beach, it's even nicer (again imo). It's like a modernist kinetic sculpture or something, an aesthetically pleasing series of 20 massive but sleekly styled turbines in a row.
However, in Denmark you can make an interesting experiment in several places. You can place yourself so that you are in 100-500m from a windmill AND have a road with traffic between you and the windmill.
What kind of noise, vibrations and view do you think are significant in that situation?
You love technology. But not everybody does. Some people like to live in the city, some people like to live in the country. Some people like to keep technology from enveloping their entire lives.
Is one viewpoint inherently more right than the other?
In particular, Spain has made a tremendous effort investing in wind energy (tax incentives, subsidies, etc. were granted), and it's amazing to see that in about 15 years, this type of energy went from 0 to about 20% of the total energy produced within the country [2].
Including also the rest of renewables to the mix, it seems obvious that in the coming 15-20 years, it should be possible to generate more than 50% of energy from renewable sources, e.g. solar energy in Spain achieved power grid parity in terms of cost last December [3].
In spite of the current economic downturn, these are pretty amazing times we are living in!
[1]: http://www.ewea.org/fileadmin/ewea_documents/documents/publi...
[2]: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/es/timeline/957d498ae7...
[3]: http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterdetwiler/2012/12/26/solar-g...
For what it's worth.
We're not an island* :-(
* We do have 1419 islands, though.
I don't see how one journalist's mistake leads to that comment.
By the way Rhode Island makes a poor comparison since that is a trick question, it is called "Island" but isn't one. Denmark does not have "Island" in its name.
It's probably a better problem to have than some of the other problems we might have though.
A cheap supercapacitor with less than 10% daily discharge rate could go a long way in positioning renewables to shine.
It would be interesting to compare:
Capital requirement
Insurability
Maximum damage to the environment in case of a disaster
Decommissioning costs
Maintenance costs
Construction schedule
But anyway breeders are a partial solution to that problem and we haven't actually put a lot of effort into the waste disposal.
Nuclear power has much less waste.
[1] http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index....
[1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/27/i...
I wonder what people would choose given the option between cheap and not from natural gas, as this is going to be the situation in USA for the next 20 years due to shale gas
Maybe it's just such a small fraction that it doesn't matter. Or maybe wind energy is essentially another form of capturing solar energy, because the winds are created by temperature differences, which are created by the sun hitting the earth, and that energy is constantly renewed?
I don't know, but I'm curious. Any insight about this would be appreciated.
I don't think it's a bad thing at all, it doesn't impact the macro climate just the local power of the wind and direction, but it is noticeable. There are all sorts of micro influences based on the buildings on land as well that matter to sailing, but the overall picture is dominated by the weather rolling through on any given day. A bridge or a building or a big open parking lot might shift the direction a few degrees or locally increase/decrease the wind, but that's it.
I doubt wind turbines do much more than that.
Any windmill impact from changing wind patterns or reducing wind power is radically less than eg building homes (given we build millions of homes annually), or simply driving vehicles (of any sort, given the numbers of vehicles globally).
You could never build enough windmills to cause a problem. The only real environmental concerns are killing animals (insects?), and construction / manufacturing related.
I like wind power, but that's not a very strong argument without numbers.
[1] DANISH http://ing.dk/artikel/vindmoeller-slog-rekord-i-gaarsdagens-...
I think a more interesting case study is Ireland, which has far weaker interconnectors to the UK and operate mainly as an island network. Like Denmark, they are also trying to integrate large amounts of wind (a goal of 40% by 2020, which is equivalent to over 6GW peak), but unlike Denmark, Ireland also have to deal with the resulting stability issues.
An EirGrid engineer I spoke to recently mentioned that frequency stability is already a big issue for them. The main solution proposed in a 2010 study [1] amounted to maintaining a sufficient operating inertial reserve, which would potentially mean curtailing wind generation at times. In the future, I would look to Ireland rather than Denmark for solutions to integrating more wind into the grid, because they are already at the pointy end of it.
[1] EirGrid Facilitation of Renewables study, http://www.eirgrid.com/renewables/facilitationofrenewables/
I find the idea of using a dam as a battery quite interesting.
Just south of the Bay Area, you can see such a facility on the road between the 101 and the 5, at Pacheco Pass.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Luis_Reservoir
See also : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped_storage
Seems like an ideal arrangement would be to use Norwegian hydro power installations as a buffer for Danish wind power output.
It works like this: Every energy producer bids a price for their power, the lower your price the higher you are on the order book.
Then energy consumers will meet the demand by buying from the producers in the order of their price.
Once they have filled their power demand they pay everyone the price of the last price they needed to fill their needs.
So by setting a negative price they ensure they are always on top of the order book - but they don't actually have to pay for their power since other power sources have positive prices, and that's the price that is actually paid.
That's a good question and they've mentioned one solution being transferring the energy to Sweden or Norway and they'll dial back the hydros and store more water in their dams. Of course I wonder if they could just selectively put a windmill in neutral to solve the same problem.
The author couldn't decide on the capitalization of "of" in the title so maybe they just didn't know 1000 Meg is a Gig.
Water desalination perhaps, since it's energy intensive.
[1] http://www.stanford.edu/group/cui_group/papers/Yuan_EES_2013...
If Denmark doesn't have enough companies that could take the energy, they have to send the energy to be used up somewhere else. It's quite likely that at the same time in other countries a similar situation occurs, so nobody really wants the extra electricity. Hence Danes need to pay other countries to get rid of it.
Running a power grid is a 24x7 dance of supply and demand, which is why people that hate renewables like wind are quick to lament its variable nature. It's the same in high-capacity systems planning in our line of work; systems that have variable latency are a lot harder to plan capacity for than systems with fairly constant latency. Just substitute "supply" for "latency", and you're now a power grid operator.
> Let’s compare the emergency braking requirements of a
>1.5 MW wind turbine under maximum wind conditions with
>those of a 40-ton mining truck. Imagine driving a
>fully loaded truck down a steep gradient of 25% (1:4)
>at 85 mph when a road sign warns of a cliff a quarter
>mile ahead. The engineering required for effective
>braking in both cases is much the same. Braking for
>the wind turbine is, in fact, more demanding.
Beyond mechanical brakes, the available control strategies and actuators normally applied toward maximizing power output per [1] can instead be applied toward bringing the power output to zero and the rotor to a halt, such as:* Apply generator torque control (dumping power to the grid) sufficient to slow the blades down to near zero
* Then or as the blades slow down, stall or furl the blades using pitch control
* Apply the brakes to lock the rotor
* Yaw the whole machine 90 degrees off the wind
OK so if they're stoppable, what is up here?
Others more familiar with Danish market, operators and regulatory conditions might speak better to this, but I'll surmise that the turbine operators get paid when they produce energy, whether Denmark needs it or not. So the turbine operators never stop their turbines, night nor day.
When that creates an excess of energy the grid engineers must do something. The article mentioned slowing hydro output elsewhere and heating the water used locally for district heating.
This creates an environment where there should be a financial incentive to create technologies for storage or highly variable use of this nightime and other times highly variable excess electrical energy.
Hundred-megawatt data centers [3] with quickly variable compute capability come to mind, but making stored hot water hotter (the district heating 'dummy load' approach) seems to me a lot simpler, cheaper and immediately practical, if a bit wasteful of the low-entropy energy that electricity is.
---
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_turbine_design
[2] http://news.altramotion.com/?p=242
[3] http://gigaom.com/2012/01/31/the-era-of-the-100-mw-data-cent...