Tens of thousands of Japanese housewives drawn into currency day-trading, lose billions | Hacker News Reader

Tens of thousands of Japanese housewives drawn into currency day-trading, lose billions

nytimes.com

14 pointscharzom14 comments

As a general rule, day-trading is a very bad idea. It would be surprising if after expenses Ms. Torii (whose success is extremely atypical) is still in the black a few years from now. Making serious long-term money is rare enough among pros. People day-trading from home don't stand a chance.

'Making serious long-term money is rare enough among pros.'

Data sources?

Go to any investment bank. Take a look at every other desk except currency traders. You'll notice the average age is around 30. Take a look at the currency desk, and you'll realize the average age is around 50. Why?

Bonds, stocks, exotics -- that stuff is all teachable. Give someone two years and they can learn to work the markets. Currency has basically zero theory surrounding it. The guys who are really good have no idea why they're good at it. It's basically all just trapped in their heads and they can't get it out. That's why the guys who are good at it tend to stick around forever and they end up being much older than the other guys on average.

I once considered taking an $899 course on currency trading from FXCM.com, so there must be at least some people who think they can teach it and others willing to pay to learn.

Also, with other i-banking specialties you need a larger supply train, including data gathering, analysis, packaging (as a fund) and marketing. With technical trading all you need is your computer and you. Why would a young person who is skilled at technical trading work inside an investment bank? How can you be sure that there aren't thousands of skilled traders making a killing from home? Isn't this sort of like hackers?

> I once considered taking an $899 course on currency trading

Why would someone who knew how to trade bother selling an $899 course? They'd be making 10-10000 times that, trading.

Because there is no risk in selling an $899 course, just profit.

I also wondered this. Perhaps they like teaching?

Because it's an elevated version of the good ol' SCAM. Akin to the "Learn how to sell on eBay" or "How to buy and flip a house" pitches that you see often. How good of an education can you buy for $899?

Probably not a very good one - but what do I know I didn't take the course. Btw, I've heard from folks that flip houses that at least some of the workshops are legit.

"There are strict taboos against money that isn't earned with sweat from the brow"

A relative of mine grew up with many orientals and she too holds this attitude. It seems very strange to me but now at least I know where it came from.

You know that is a good attitude for society. It is only during financial bubble times that people develop the flip-it mindset.

I am a PG fan, but the only thing I am not a fan of is his built-to-flip mindset. The coming downturn will cure it - most companies aren't going to find sugar-daddies, so would actually have to figure out a way to make it on their own ...

It's bad because those people ONLY plan to work hard, but not work SMART.

It isn't just about building to flipping. They would never start a business at all. There is much more honor in pushing papers around and accomplishing nothing at some huge company than ever actually doing the most you can do.

> You know that is a good attitude for society

Why is that? It's good for the economy for people to invest in the market.

They have dishonored their families.

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