You are correct, we are in the middle of a "Great Dev Drought," keyword being "Great" or rather talented. I don't have any hard data for you per se, but I can tell you that of the ~100 candidates we've interviewed for a junior Rails position, we've accepted approximately 2%.

Our entire pool is filled with software engineers and web developers that look very qualified on paper. However, it's hard to find someone with a good mix of (1) theoretical computer science knowledge, (2) practical programming experience, (3) problem solving skills, and (4) the drive to be truly great.

I have one piece of advice: If you are simply looking to "pivot" into programming for a job and because it's the hot thing to do, then don't! But if anything programming and computers is truly your passion; if it excites you so much that you have trouble sleeping; if you couldn't imagine your life doing anything else, then go for it by all mens. The odds are stacked against you, but you can beat them if you work hard. Good luck!