I think perhaps we might not be starting programming with computers directly all the time, but perhaps there will always be some object that younger folks will learn to program. Heck maybe the next kids will decide to program phones or connected home appliances or something.
In my opinion, the abundance of dynamic and interpreted languages, powerful tools, programmable hardware, and the internet make getting into programming WAY easier than it was before.
Those home computers? You load a game, or you start programming. Since loading a game often meant fiddling around with a tape cassette and cable, and a few minutes hoping it would load, it's easy to see why people decided to try to code themselves.
I know abstraction is a good thing. I know it's powerful and etc etc.
But there's something nice about being able to squirt data to an address, and know it's coming out the parallel port, and having a hokey resister-ladder DtoA converter hooked up to turn that data into music. Or to have a single instruction to draw a pixel.
I remember being utterly confused by what a statement beginning with "while" did, but eventually I was reasonable enough to mostly implement a (very weak) checkers-playing AI.
This then lead to programming Lego robots in C, which was pretty neat. (Actually, thinking about that, the first programming I did was using the graphical LabView thing that Lego provides for Mindstorms robots.)
PRINT "Hello from the Computer"
And I worked my way up from there with the help system, and a lot of trial and error.It helped that our parents limited us to 30min/day of playing games, but were okay with me spending more computer time programming (or playing my own games, though I rarely did that. Making them better was way more fun than actually playing them).
I don't remember how old I was at the time, but it was definitely I was using Windows 3.11 (it was installed, but you couldn't run any decent apps when all your RAM was used up by win). By the time we got a Win95 computer (which in fairness was probably in '98 or '99) I was pretty decent at BASIC.
I continued to play around with it 'til I started learning C++ in maybe 2003? Luckily prolonged exposure to BASIC doesn't seem to have done any lasting damage :)
As a kid, I was never really exposed to programming. It wasn't offered in middle school or high school. It just so happened that I was never prompted to try it. I majored in something non-technical, and didn't write my first 'for' loop til I was 24.
Which is a shame, because as a kid I totally would have loved it. If only there was one class, one teacher, one person, somewhere, telling me to try programming -- I would have tried it, most likely, if someone pushed me.
Oh well. As a grown up, I've discovered programming, I have a job doing programming, and I love it.
But I also started earlier than most folks I know.
I was also given an Atari 130XE by an uncle that booted to BASIC, explored GORILLAS.BAS when DOS 5.0 came along, etc.