I remember being perplexed looking at the intrade exchange pricing during the last presidential election. I wasn't the only one. Nate Silver and Paul Graham wondered about it too

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-t...

https://twitter.com/intent/retweet?tweet_id=2615138971341414...

The bets on Obama not being re-elected seemed way too high. I convinced myself at the time that this must have been due to either personal bias or perhaps a strong republican leaning userbase on Intrade. But now it's starting to seem like it may have been part of some scam.