North Korea declares war on South Korea - full declaration
live.reuters.com
live.reuters.com
1) Most of NK's artillery is not in range of Seoul, the few that are in range of Seoul are in range of the northern part of Greater Seoul (essentially suburbs), which are nowhere near as populated as Seoul proper. NK has a very small amount mobile artillery which could be repositioned, but US/SK artillery and reconnaissance will be able to hit mobile artillery attempted to move within range of Seoul before it can get close enough to do any damage. Our missiles go further, hit harder, hit more accurately, than theirs do.
2) North Korea will not engage in a mainland war before receiving authorization or warning China, at which point Chinese tourists will be recalled from Seoul and Jeju. China will not allow North Korea to threaten the affluent Chinese tourists that frequent those area, and should North Korea attempt to do so it will be facing an invasion from the Chinese border, and most likely Russian border.
3) North Korea will likely try to hit a few small islands as part of their saber rattling in order to receive aid and will not escalate any further without North Korea losing everything in a matter of moments.
4) I'm in South Korea right now (Seoul actually) and I can tell you there is no tension in the air over this issue on the part of Koreans.
5) North Korea has no way to remotely deliver a nuclear device. The only countries that have developed miniturized nukes that the North Koreans could "carry" into the country are the US, Soviet Union, and possibly Israel. They have no "suitcase nuke" nor the technology to develop one. The only way they could "nuke" Seoul is if they build one within Seoul.
Have you visited the North? When I was there last year the Juche philosophy was as much a part of everyone as the casual references to the Great Leader being the Sun of the World; the attitude amongst the people I spoke to was that China was, whilst a friendly neighbour, not necessary to the wellbeing of the DPRK (no comment on how true that actually is - just on what I gathered of people's attitudes).
As it is, I do agree this is just more sabre-rattling and it is to be taken as seriously as all the previous sabre-rattling. The real announcement of continuing the war will be troop movements and the like, which will be very easily seen in advance.
North Korea knows this, so will not act without China's blessing or at least giving China time to recall Chinese citizens from Seoul. Otherwise, North Korea has to fight a war with the Chinese in the North and NATO/South Korea in the South. This is an obvious recipe for swift and utter defeat.
The alternate scenario is that China uses it's stooges in the NK government and military to stage a coup d'etat.
Doesn't really matter what the North Korean people think, they will believe whatever nonsense their government feeds them, and there is no lack of Il-Sung descendants to pick from to be the figurehead of whatever puppet regime they choose to back.
You should probably know that Kim Jong Un is entirely a figure head and all decisions are made by a faction within his government led by his uncle-in-law Chang. Not even the NK government itself is unified behind Kim Jong Un/Chang, and its likely that there will be plenty of factions happy to take the job of China's lapdog as soon as they decide NK is threatening rich Chinese citizens.
I doubt that too. but as he mentioned >>rich Chinese citizens. this might be a catch because rich and influential people wield more clout in communist China than in pure capitalist nations like USA.
Given that they don't have real nukes or ways to deliver them the real worry is what happens when NK is run down and then China enters the stage, says NK was my cousin - I will take over of the family and house.
Killing just 1,000 Chinese in Seoul would be enough reason for China to permanently end North Korea's current regime.
And, China obviously does not want the US to have even more of a foothold, and they obviously do not want the burden of absorbing North Korea into China... Which is why I said the end-game for Chinese interference would be installation of a new puppet regime.
But yes, rich tourists are very very important. There is no better rallying cry for interference than affluent citizens being killed. Do you honestly think that the Chinese government would be able to brush off the hundreds, if not thousands of Chinese casualties in Korea?
Well, food is one reason. China, NK being almost cut-off from most of world, practically feeds NK and some other nations keep sending ration in aid from time to time.
>>no comment on how true that actually is
China was one support that helped North Korean Kim family rule NK for so long and strategically keep the nation cut-off from rest of the world, effectively pushing it into a modern stone-age. Now, it's up to everyone to debate what was China's ulterior motive behind this. Maybe they wanted a loose cannon or a time bomb in the neighbourhood under their (virtual) control. But now, it seems the pumpkin prince has actually lost it and if China is true in its demonstration and expression that NK really doesn't listen to it anymore, it is a matter of grave concern.
You were there. Can you comment the lifestyle and standard of living of common people, middle class(if there's one) and the ruling elite(i.e. military elite)? Or in what conditions the majority of people live? I see one reason to keep the nation cut off from the world is that the ruling elite (other than the Kims) can retain their status and aristocrat like clout in the country while their kids studies overseas(current Kim probably studied in Switzerland/Europe) and prospers.
Even the DPRK has enough food reserves to last a few weeks, which is how long the war would last before they were destroyed from one side or the other.
> China was one support that helped North Korean Kim family rule NK for so long and strategically keep the nation cut-off from rest of the world, effectively pushing it into a modern stone-age.
That was all set by Mao and Stalin, who weren't exactly the most well meaning cookies in the jar. Recently the relationship between the PRC and DPRK has been less happy.
Whilst Western definitions of middle-class tend to involve our economy in some way, the best I could manage would be those living in the cities and towns. They get (not brilliantly reliable) electricity, access to healthcare, housing that varied from buildings genuinely I thought were abandoned up to blocks of flats that weren't in too horrific shape. In the cities there was some (overcrowded and often dark) public transport. Towns relied on bicycles and lots of walking.
The majority of people were those living in villages. I passed these over and over again on the roads (by which I mean, I could see them from the road - they were usually NOT on the road network themselves, presumably by design). Buildings were of brick or other such material. Vehicles extremely rare. Oxen extremely rare (and clearly prized as ploughing tools). Three-person ploughing teams depressing common (looked like a shovel and two ropes tied to the head - one person jams it into the field, everyone lifts it and turns the earth, everyone takes one step forwards and repeats, over and over and over again). I didn't see much evidence of electricity in these villages. They're effectively cut off; there's no way for Kim Citizen to decide to wander over to the next village. Rivers used for washing clothes. People walking a long, long way to the fields they were working. The number of people engaged in working the land was enormous. For someone from the West used to the idea that a very small percentage of the population need be engaged in actually growing the food, it's a shock to see people in the 21st century farming effectively by hand. The evidence of the famine and also massive deforestation is clear if you look. Every scrap of land that someone can can reach and might support crops is being farmed. There are vast, vast numbers of saplings with little white stone circles around them (presumably to mark it). In the last decade, they were clearly in a very bad way for solid fuel.
I agree that keeping the population in the dark is a very effective means of control. The locals I met were very keen to flick through what magazines etc I'd brought with me and wanted to know simple things about my life.
There was a famine before, and it didn't end the regime. There is a persistent myth that if a people gets hungry enough, they have a revolution, but it didn't happen in China and it didn't happen in the DPRK. I would be hesitant to think that simply cutting off the food would be so effective in quickly changing the DPRK foreign policy.
I guess the big emancipators ought to rather emancipate them first!
Food; food was allocated (in the towns, at least - I don't know about villages) by your official food distribution centre, which often seemed to be the ground floor of the building you were living on. You got a few days in advance at a time. If you ever decided to try something (be it make a run for the border or have a revolution), you'd have three days' worth of food to make it work. Speaking of running for the (north) border, you'd better be able to make it on foot within a few days. You'll have to stay clear of the roads (what roads there are) so it'll be yomping over fields.
The media is the state media. There are a number of smuggled radios etc on the country. It's very hard to get figures on this; they seem to be clustered towards the north border where they drift in from China, and in the cities. The government control of the airwaves is not absolute, but they do engage in jamming and so forth.
It is as people say. The country is to a large extent a prison camp. Some of it is an "open" prison, some of it is working three generations of a family to death, sentencing children alongside their grandparents because they upset someone with power (or had something the powerful person wanted - many Japanese of Korean origin who foolishly moved there found themselves stripped of all the wealth they brought with them and reduced to poverty or simply dispatched to a labour camp) or maybe just said the wrong thing (turning each other in does not seem to be uncommon).
A DPRK spring in the style of the Arab spring is not, in my opinion, on the cards.
Are you Chinese? The PRC government is not very paternalistic on any tourists abroad, who are basically on their own; China is not going to sacrifice any intelligence advantages to protect a few tourists (and neither would the US).
The DPRK is also not close enough to the PRC to ask for permission, though I'm sure they know what the PRC desires in terms of this.
And I'm surprised that you think that US citizens getting killed through North Korean action in South Korea would not lead to an immediate response by the US government. You believe that the US government would say "Oh yeah, well, they just killed many of our citizens but lets wait to attack because..." Because what? Preserve what intelligence?
You are also misguided and misinformed about the relationship between the DPRK and China. While it is possible that North Korea will act without permission, they will not act without warning China beforehand.
It wouldn't be what we are thinking. Generally, just having the country invaded is enough for us to be involved, actually.
> You are also misguided and misinformed about the relationship between the DPRK and China. While it is possible that North Korea will act without permission, they will not act without warning China beforehand.
I live in Beijing and pay attention. I don't think you are really informed very well; if the DPRK bothered to warn China, it would just give them some extra time to get some troops from Liaoning across the Yalu to stop their plans cold. Their first thought wouldn't be: let's save our tourists!
The only way for North Korea to "get away" with crossing the DMZ is if it, at the very least, gives China advanced warning of their actions to placate some of these concerns. Yes, protecting rich Chinese citizens in South Korea is not the only concern, but it is any important one.
Besides that, I never said the warning would come from official diplomatic channels within the DPRK. I just said "warning". What this could mean is a warning from asset China has within the government and country. And believe me, they have plenty of assets within the DPRK government that will tip them off.
I'm not even sure what your argument here is: That China wouldn't care? That they would care but they wouldn't care about their overseas citizens? That they have no oversight or control or assets in North Korea?
I hope South Korea has a plan to minimize civilian casualties, if it comes to that, and I wish the people didn't have to go through this; not the tension, much less actual damage. South Korea is a modern country full of technology, in those ways a peer to the US and other first world countries. Which makes it even easier to put yourself in the south koreans' shoes. Gives you some perspective.
In any open conflict, thousands of South Koreans in Seoul would die within hours because of artillery on the border. Any war activity in North Korea, together with weaker border enforcement would send hundreds of thousands of Fugitives north and south.
In a lot of ways, Kim can afford the provocation more than every one else can afford to take the bluff.
The North declares war and we are all forced to treat it as a joke because taking it seriously and actually letting the hot war start would be devastating.
This is China's mess. China really needs to step in here and do something. It's fence-sat with the North for too long. It has understandable concerns about North Korean refugees flooding across its borders, but its tolerance of bad behavior and resistance to taking stronger action to influence it's unruly charge is leading to it losing face at best, and at worse being seen as contributing to a needless conflict with great loss of life should it occur.
Do not think for a second that China has some sort of dictator that can decide what side of the fence they want to be on. You have a lot of diversity in thought on what to do about the DPRK in the PRC. Many of them still don't trust the US, and its more important to check us than to preserve trade relationships.
The PRC government could give a shit about a few tourists. Its more about the trade relations they have with the ROK (and PSY is really popular here).
> The moment China lets North Korea cross the DMZ is the moment China invades North Korea themselves and installs some new puppet regime.
Reread my post, this is exactly what I said. If you didn't know, the Yalu river forms the border between Liaoning and DPRK.
> I don't think you understand what kind of uproar would occur in China should any Chinese casualties occur because of North Korea's antics.
Now that is a weird statement to make. First of all, they are more concerned with trade relations, think of all the PRC citizens that will starve to death if the export factories have to close down because the PRC is in it bad with the US?
You are correct that trade relations are key here, and I omitted this 800 pound gorilla. Thank you for the addition.
Damn. Somebody better call the US Marshals!
https://gist.github.com/anonymous/5276280/raw/4ce722bf2f5cc4...
The English version seems to be a North Korean translation. The KCNA site published it in 5 languages. It's on page 2 of the main list of articles (page NaN actually, but it's second in navigation).
No copyright infringement intended.
Surely such famines would not be particularly nice, but on the other hand, recent events in the Middle East have demonstrated yet again that no government can establish itself permanently without the support of its people; hence rendering the North Korean people responsible for these nuclear threats just as much as their government.
They're not rejecting responsibility. It's not as if they used to be fully in control and one day decided that they'd have a go instead at being prisoners of the state, utterly powerless, to see how that went. Nobody allowed them to reject responsibility.
Being allowed to reject such responsibility on the basis of a lack of freedom would make it too easy for the general public to blame a select few for crimes
Are you serious? You want to hold people responsible for something they didn't do and had absolutely no control over? If that's how it is, then YOU are also to be held responsible.
Chances are NK will launch a restrained attack on one of the islands near border, inviting a response which I'm told will be measured yet quite strong. What they want is a stage to put on a display of thuggery because all they're getting is a busy signal, ruining their Gangbook style.
Anyway, IMO and all that.
I genuinely feel sorry for the people on both sides Of this conflict as they're all going to suffer if it kicks off.
If the international community gets involved as well, its going to drag out even longer than Afghanistan or Iraq.
Its ugly whatever happens.
- The North Korean military is a serious conventional force.
- Their army is considered to be highly motivated, given the years of indoctrination and virtually no access to a real news channel. They will probably fight to death.
- They have an over-sized, capable special ops team.
- Nukes. It may or may not work well, but the rest of the world can't take this chance. We (rest of the world) are also just guessing how many they have.
- Seoul is within range of artillery fire. Also will be the first thing to get flattened. About 24 million people live in and around it.
- I doubt if their strategic targets will be sitting ducks for aerial bombing. Given that war and military is the only thing that country thinks about.
So yeah, the truth is that the rest of the world is just very scared. South Korean defense personnel have been repeated targeted in recent years; and nothing could be done. :(
The DPRK could potentially cause a lot of damage to civilians, but they cannot win an offensive war. The question is whether they're crazy enough to try.
Best to do it now, before they have to deal with another nuke club member in their backyard that's a total wild card...
And if Seoul gets demolished, South Korea isn't their ally, so that's Somebody Else's Problem.
Funny how all this could also translate directly to the US.
I agree that North Korea can outlay a large amount of artillery fire immediately, but I think South Korea + the US can wipe out 90% of it within the first week of combat. After that it becomes strictly a ground war for the north. I also believe a lot less people will die in the south than typically proclaimed, and South Korea can rebuild quickly - meanwhile, the North Korean regime will be finished forever.
While I am sure it's mostly bluster, it's still a rather disturbing escalation of rhetoric from an unpredictable and dangerous regime, unlikely to be the most reliable of rational actors in times of high tension.
In case Reuters is down again - the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21979127
Because this:
>>From this moment, the north-south relations will be put at the state of war ....
speaks of the latter it seems.