Yeah, there are a lot of determining factors which really boost the probability of success, and that is certainly one of them.
I'd say most people think they have a huge market though. How do you separate out the ones who are right (and thus the special person for whom the statistic didn't apply) from the failure cases (who believed in essentially the same preconditions but were incorrect/implemented wrong/didn't move quick enough/had some extenuating circumstance/didn't get funding/had the wrong partner/hired the wrong dev/didn't pivot/failed).
That's why experience is such a key factor—if you've already done it 3 times you have a lot higher chance of making the right decisions along the way.
I'm not saying it's entirely luck, but it's not deterministic either.