Of course - it's also a function of who you know, your timing, and a huge number of additional factors. It probably has a lot to do with 'rare and special quantities of individuals' as well. The difference is that if you can run 50 miles without breaking a sweat and do pull ups using only your pinky, it's pretty clear that you will make it in the special forces baring a freak accident.

However, you could have just created a successful startup. You could create an incredible product. You can still fail if Google launches a competing product at the same time before yours can gain traction. You can still fail if someone else comes out with a better and cheaper way to do what you're doing. You can still fail if a key part of your marketing fails you for reasons out of your control (Facebook blocking access to their API).

It's simply a function of the amount of chaos. Nobody can tell you if your startup will succeed or fail. I'm very sure that a special forces instructor will be able to tell if you'll make it after just a few minutes of watching you perform.