Ask HN: What's the state of universal internet connectivity? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: What's the state of universal internet connectivity?

3 pointsnewy2 comments

I've done some poking around but I'm sure you guys out there are much more well-versed in the space.

As a consumer, I'm simply wondering when universal internet connectivity will roll around (i.e. wireless broadband quality internet access as ubiquitous as cell phone signals) and what platform is most likely to take us there.

I've seen FON's offering, and while it seems like a good stopgap measure, it doesn't seem scalable enough. 3G currently doesn't deliver a great experience (at least for me). MuniWireless seems to have stalled.

What's holding us back and who will make a breakthrough?

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Well, either WiMAX or LTE could become widespread in developed countries by 2011 - 2013, thats what I read in pre-meltdown reports (summer 2008 and earlier). Now it's probably going to take more time. I believe WiMAX will stay as a niche wireless broadband technology, even if Skype-based WiMAX phones appear, while LTE will be used mostly on cellphones/smartphoes/whatever since it has considerable support from the telco/gsm industry.

To answer your question, I think the main factor holding down deployment of broadband mobile wireless networks is uncertainty wrt which standard will win - no one wants to invest millions into building a network that will be based on a technology that may never become popular (and you really want interoperability in such networks, like it is the case with GSM). Also, telcos are big oligopolies (simple economics explains why they are reluctant to change).

While I can't answer the actual question, I can give you my best guess at what the future will hold. In short, I think WIMAX will eventually come out of hibernation, allowing for cities to be covered by ubiquitous access. This, in turn, will hopefully lead to hub-bridging between cities, which basically will transform the internet from being the scale-free network it currently is into the scalable network it should be. At that point, current ISPs will be forced to dramatically alter their business plan, because it is impossible for them to keep their current business plan with a non scale-free network.

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