The way to bet is "very badly", and if you're a conventional salaried employee have your exit strategy well in place by the time you hit 35. Expect to be conventionally unemployable at 40, unless you can hide your age.29. I don't expect "conventional employment", as defined by VC-istan or the corporate megaliths, in 11 years. Those will exist, but I don't think they'll be where the exciting action is.
But yes, if you're applying for subordinate positions that any idiot can fill, and you're 40+, you did something wrong. You don't need to be a manager by 40, but you need to be at a level of skill where it's obvious that you don't need traditional "here's work, go do it" management.