I honestly doubt this is the case, I would expect more and more kids are getting into programming because it has become so widespread and easy.
I honestly doubt this is the case, I would expect more and more kids are getting into programming because it has become so widespread and easy.
Linus Torvalds wrote a kernel because he bought a PC: hardware which allowed him to do anything he wanted.
Today, smartphones and mobile devices are much more popular among the youth. Could you imagine if Torvalds had been born in 1993? By this point, I'm sure he would have made something much less spectacular than Linux. Maybe he would make some pretty cool Facebook or smartphone games, and maybe a few cool web apps, but the freedom to tinker with hardware directly had been slowly slipping away over the past ~10 years. Since that avenue was becoming less available, there's a chance it wouldn't have grabbed his attention in the first place.
We still have laptops/desktops which aren't locked down. Hopefully that's what the young/future version of Torvalds would have gotten interested in. But how long until you buy a laptop only to find out that it doesn't grant you root access?
One of the main real reasons for Linus's success (other than say his talent) is that there wasn't a good alternative to Linux so even version 0.2 which could barely do anything by today's standards got interest and community involvement.
Wherever I'm living I go around to schools and groups looking for kids to teach programming to. They all have computers of some sort (mostly iPhones and some tablets), but don't know how in the world they can develop on them. The only way to write native apps for iOS is to buy an apple laptop, get a developer license and learn an advanced programming language. That's beyond the reach of most kids.
Now suppose that new websites popped up using my library and all the kid needed was a device with a modern browser and optionally a bluetooth keyboard? They could learn JavaScript and write webapps. There is huge demand for new programmers in our economy and most kids only see electronics as consumption devices.
Speaking of, my Chromebook just arrived via UPS, now for some fun!
It is pretty burdensome that you do need to have an Apple computer (or hackintosh, or complicated unofficial toolchain) in order to developer for iOS, you actually don't need a developer license to start developing apps. You just open the Mac App Store and grab Xcode these days. You do need the $99 subscription in order to test on a device (very unfortunately), and to publish in the App Store. But in spite of these things, if you're a new developer with access to OSX, iOS development is quite accessible and easy to get started with.