Comment by miked | Hacker News Reader

Comment by miked | Hacker News Reader

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From 2009-2012, these tax receipts were around 15% of GDP.

Total US government receipts in 2013 are projected to be $5.56 trillion. US GDP for the same period is projected at $16.3 trillion.

State and local governments consume about 17% of GDP (averaging across all states). http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/state_tax_rank

Current US (federal) debt is $16.1 trillion, the burden of which is largely hidden by the fact that interest rates are currently extremely low.

Add to the above numbers an inflation tax of about 1.5 - 2.5%.

Your analysis starts by excluding any taxes you find inconvenient (such as, apparently, social security, inflation, tariffs, ad-valorem taxes, and especially state and local taxes -- which you somehow don't regard as governments) to get the numbers you want. If a business did accounting the way you just did, they'd rightfully land in jail.

But if you're just going to point to the national budget, echo popular political talk-show points about "$16 TRILLION IN DEBT OUR GRANDKIDS WILL HAVE TO PAY"...

You fail to mention who's going to pay it then? It must wonderful to be an Entitled One and write checks that someone else has to cash.

...and "WE'RE ON THE ROAD TO GREECE" then I'd argue you're completely missing the forest for the trees.

Unfortunately, you didn't argue it, you merely asserted it without any evidence and worse, started by providing "evidence" that was misleading at best.

As for Greece, I actually lived there 15 years ago. Even then the government was obviously bloated beyond all recognition, with government "jobs" that required little or no work being handed out as political favors. I left in part because I knew that the country would deteriorate eventually, with a rapidly aging population and three -- count 'em -- viable communist parties and one socialist party (PASOK) that was at that time the largest party in the country. Current newspaper reports and email accounts from a friend there sound pretty ominous.

Years ago a prominent foreign politician -- I'm sorry I can't remember who -- was asked how his country went bankrupt. He replied "Two ways. Slowly at first, then quickly."

Your analysis starts by excluding any taxes you find inconvenient (such as, apparently, social security, inflation, tariffs, ad-valorem taxes, and especially state and local taxes -- which you somehow don't regard as governments) to get the numbers you want. If a business did accounting the way you just did, they'd rightfully land in jail.

I had assumed the OP was talking in terms of the federal government, as that is the government debt that is most criticized. Also, did state and local taxes not exist in 2000? I would assume the tax and spending ratios would be close to the same.

Also, if the government got to do accounting the way businesses do, then they would be able to capitalize things like infrastructure costs. But because our governments can't, transportation funds dry up and we end up with decaying infrastructure.

You seem to suggest I'm being deceiving here, but all I'm pointing out is this: We had a recession caused by the private sector. As a result of this recession, tax revenue went down, because taxes go down in a recession. Spending also went up, because spending on safety net programs intended to mitigate recessions goes up. And certain people, like yourself apparently, think this is an unprecendented catastrophe. And our long-run debt projections are almost purely a function of healthcare costs and have nothing to do with aging or population trends.

You fail to mention who's going to pay it then? It must wonderful to be an Entitled One and write checks that someone else has to cash.

Where is it written that a country is required to eventually reduce it's national debt to $0? The US will not "die" and leave a bunch of credit card bills to its heirs, like human being. China is not going to knock on our door, throw a bunch of IOUs in our faces, and demand we pay up or they'll break our legs. The figurative way this could happen is if our debt causes expensive borrowing costs or massive inflation. Why don't we wait for either of those to start to happen -- none of which has happened in countries with much greater debt than US that control their own currency (as we do), like Japan -- before you throw the "future burden of our kids" argument out?

Even then the government was obviously bloated beyond all recognition, with government "jobs" that required little or no work being handed out as political favors.

I posted this link down below, but public sector employment has completely collapsed since the recession[0]. So, I can't imagine too many jobs are being handed out this way.

Greece had multiple problems, and yes, government corruption was one of them. It also has no control of a central bank to increase/decrease the money supply. Its government does not also does not possess roughly $100 trillion in asssets[1]. I don't like the idea of selling Yellowstone to Disney (for example) in the face of fiscal deficits, but if you're going to make the "future generations" argument, it's more accurate to compare the government debt to government assets than the government's tax receipts in a single year.

[0] http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/25/american-austeri...

[1] http://business.time.com/2013/02/05/the-federal-governments-...

> We had a recession caused by the private sector.

I was going to stay out of this thread but, no, not with something like this.

The recession was not caused by the private sector. It was caused by government policy that enabled people to buy homes they should not have been able to buy. That was the primary enabler. With at that one gating element what happened would have been impossible. The private sector worked with and within the framework provided by our inept politicians, who never seem to have a handle on the concept of unintended consequences.

Let's not forget the millions of Americans who got on the gravy train knowing, full well, that they couldn't really pay for that million dollar home with their $75K combined salaries. Those among our compatriots who took part in this were another significant gating element. Without their participation this wouldn't have happened.

There are three groups destroying our country from the inside: Politicians, government and unions

" the private sector, not the government or government-backed companies, was behind the soaring subprime lending at the core of the crisis" [0]

[0] http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2008/10/12/53802/private-sector-l...

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