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But is it fitting to apply the findings of trials with real world birds to the sapient Middle-earth eagles?

Are we to believe that these are some sort of magic eagles to which the laws of physics do not apply?

Sentience adds significant value (like far better risk avoidance than instinct can provide) with no magic involved.

The whole point is not that the eagles plan would be foolproof -- just that it would be a hell of a lot smarter than the plan they chose. Hence, plot hole.

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