Martin Owens declares Ubuntu Community dead

Linux distributions since time immemorial have followed the same trajectory. They start out because the existing distros aren't paying attention to some detail (eg a particular DE, a particular class or location of users, workflows etc).

They get popular because those users appreciate such a close match to their needs (or dies due to lack of interest/development). Buoyed by success, the distro grows. It adds more and more packages. The bug lists start growing. The pace of development slows because the developer availability trails the number of packages, bugs, and users, getting spread thinner and thinner. Decisions become increasingly conservative because of all the things that could break and the number of users affected. Besides things already work.

Users feel increasingly disenfranchised and notice the lack attention to their relevant detail. A new distro gets born. You could probably model the whole process using Conway's Life.