Map Shows Where 220mph Trains Would Go in the U.S.
mashable.com
mashable.com
Say that it finally becomes possible to reach a planet of a nearby star. It's a new technology that enables it, and we can build a spaceship that will support several generations of people during the trip. Maybe it takes 500 years to get there.
Well, 500 years is a long time. It's not as if our technological development will stop in the meantime. In fact, given 100 years of development, we might be able to construct a new ship that will only take 300 years to get to that planet. Which would mean it would overtake the first, and beat it by a hundred years.
In which case, why build the first ship at all?
That's the objection I've heard most recently against building high-speed rail in the united states. For instance, in the context of self-driving cars that might be able to organize themselves into "trains" on the road, or fit conditions where they would qualify for a higher speed limit, etc. While it may be true that we need high-speed rail now, is it going to be as true by the time they would actually get built?
Railroad trains are very energy-efficient, compared to cars driving along a road, or even trucks driving along a road. And if we suddenly had self-driving cars, packed close together and safer than the existing system, trains would still be more efficient.
The link below shows a table of transportation methods and efficiencies -- it shows railroad trains beating even motorcycles for efficiency.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_efficiency_in_transporta...
And if the government is involved, forget about it. It will be a massive mess of cost overruns and other financial shenanigans. And Amtrak proves that the government can't even run a railroad, let alone build one.
You know, the way a company would do it.
Yglesias wrote up this exact argument this week [1]. The Northeast Corridor profit he dug up [2] amounts to all of $136 million/year for the Northeast Corridor; a proposed upgrade is estimated at $151 billion [3]. (And the profit figure only includes operating costs -- the actually relevant figures aren't available).
[1] http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/03/01/amtrak_profit...
[2] http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Reports/2013...
Holding infrastructure development hostage to starry-eyed visions of what we might have in the future is just foolish. The fundamental building blocks of society--power, water, transit, etc, have been pretty much unchanged since the 1960's. It's unlikely that they will do so in a dramatic way by the time HSR gets built.
Avedøre shows we can do 91% thermal and 49% electrical efficiency if we set our minds to it. But the fact is that most plants don't do better than 33% at both (because they're not that efficient and because they throw out all the heat).
Focus on the chart showing tons of greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt-hour. 1913 was still in a period of rapid technological development, but the curve necks around 1930. From 1930 to 2000, GHG emissions per megawatt hour dropped from around 1.5 tons/MWh to 1.0 tons/MWh.
This is what technological progress looks like. You have periods of rapid improvement followed by a plateau with extremely gradual improvements.
Infrastructure does not always move slowly. When it's time, it actually moves quite quickly.
Or Dubai in 17: http://www.ebaumsworld.com/pictures/view/187773/
Or (in the US): South (new) Las Vegas: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=37228
Or take the 1994 LA Earthquake where the freeways were repaired 2.5 months early: http://articles.latimes.com/1994-04-06/news/mn-42778_1_santa...
Or you can even go 150 years back to when the London Sewage System was built, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_sewerage_system in a matter of a few years
Or Chongqing: http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=172962 ... their rivers glisten brown with progress (I guess)
Or take the Chinese High Speed Rail which went from 0 KM in 2007 to 9300 KM in 2012.
Or take the German Autobahn which went from 108 KM to 3736 KM between 1935 and 1940.
If the US doesn't sort this out it will have a significant impact in growth in the future. You can maybe see some of the effects of this already in the faster moving Internet infrastructure.
These things run in cycles. The fact that infrastructure hasn't changed much since 1970 doesn't mean that infrastructure takes forever to change, it means that attention has been elsewhere since then.
Why do you say copper wire is useles?
Also, w.r.t. the spaceship, what happens if the time between the tech for spaceship #1 and the tech for spaceship #2 includes an extinction-level event? Why build spaceship #2 when we can just wait another couple hundred years and assume that obviously we will improve it even more?
Why buy a new computer when it will be obsolete within a couple of months? I should just never buy a new computer and then I will never have to worry about it being obsolete!
The number I have seen quoted is that a train can move 1 ton 400 miles using 1 gallon of diesel.
As someone who travels occasionally--albeit somewhat infrequently--for both business and pleasure, I share the opinion that flying is not altogether pleasant. From arriving at the airport several hours early, to dealing with TSA, to sitting in the cramped aircraft seating, it's not a stretch to say that it's a somewhat miserable experience. For the amount of money one has to pay for a flight, especially if going to a less popular/metropolitan destination, the experience is very sub par.
Trains, however, are a joy to ride. There is no TSA (or any other form of security theatre), no having to show up several hours early, and the journey itself is pleasant while watching the world pass by outside. Delays are very infrequent. I've personally done some of my best thinking, coding, and writing while on a train.
There is, however, one major problem: trains in America are slow. Slow to the point that driving through Los Angeles (including traffic delays) is still about twice as fast as taking the Amtrak. There is probably some efficiency gain on longer trips, but who wants to sign up for a 72-hour train ride that could easily be a 36-hour drive or, more realistically, a two hour flight for the same cost?
I would welcome a revitalization of the rail industry in this country with open arms, but only if they do it right; after all, as a project that would likely be subsidized with tax dollars, I'd rather not pay for something that one one would use.
We don't put the TSA at the entrance of public parks either
Unless high-speed rail becomes successful enough to become a real option, in which case they'll be economically forced to pack customers in like the economy class on modern airliners, if not tighter, to maximize revenue.
> as a project that would likely be subsidized with tax dollars
... it's going to have to wait for enough of the Tea Party to die off before it's politically viable, and by 'Tea Party' I mean anyone who is primarily concerned whether every single cent the government spends can be justified through a purely Originalist reading of the Constitution unless the money is going to fund the military and/or the police.
I traveled extensively via Europe's high-speed rail network during the summer of 2012. If you didn't know already, rail service has been the primary mode of transport for long-distance trips in Europe for several decades. The coaches are still luxurious compared with airplane seating, and I could recline fully and get up to go purchase some snacks or a meal.
The thing with trains is that they are not space- or weight-limited like airframes. It is much easier to tack on a couple of extra cars for heavily-trafficked lines than to pack people in like sardines, and it makes economic sense to keep train coaches comfortable if you are advertising yourself as the luxurious alternative to air travel. Given the European and Asian models, I don't see evidence that rail services will be forced to cut comfort like we have seen with the airlines.
In 2011 I was in Zurich during "street parade" which is one of those crazy european things where lots of people gather to dance to awful music. Anyway, the attendance was nearly a million. Substantially all of these million people arrived by train in the six hours before noon on the day of the event. I was flabbergasted watching these people pour out of the rail station by the thousand. This is totally impossibile by road.
The contest between trains and cars is not about the way people get around. It is about the way they live when they are not moving. Trains enable the kinds of cities people want to visit. Cars hollow out and destroy cities.
The future is going to involve self driving busses, self driving cars, self driving trucks etc.
The primary thing I enjoy about the train is the additional space. Fundmantally, that is the problem with trains too. If they jammed people on a train the way they jam them on a bus, it should drive the profits up. Amtrak sells out a lot of routes in the north east while competing with $20 bus tickets.
In 20 years, self driving busses should replace trains as the up front cost is lower and the market is freer.
I'd argue that any money considered spent on trains should be put to better use.
(Added)
I think it is safe to assume all vehicles will run on electric and batteries in the distant future, further reducing train advantages.
*AI from 2013's POV; in 2030 it will be just another dumb algorithm
Also: the physics of high-speed cars makes the concept of cars traveling as fast as bullet trains totally ridiculous. The fact that a car is self-driving doesn't change the physics of tire/road friction.
Friction losses aren't significant. These cars are limited by aerodynamic drag power -- this scales as speed^3, and dominates all other losses.
No.
"Of the energy output of fuel in a car engine, 33% is spent in exhaust, 29% in cooling and 38% in mechanical energy, of which friction losses account for 33% and air resistance for 5%. By comparison, an electric car has only half the friction loss of that of a car with a conventional internal combustion engine."
So, meh, even if magic self-driving cars had zero air resistance, they're only 5% more efficient than non-self-driving cars.
I mean future self-driving cars travelling at bullet-train speeds. For these, losses are dominated by drag.
[1] The economics DO NOT work this way yet, because batteries degrade too quickly (Tesla is what, 500 charge-discharge cycles?). Heavier use means proportionally shorter life; no advantage. Solve battery life, and you've solved economics.
I could reclaim about $1000 a week in billable time with a self-driving car (if I billed hourly, which I don't, but I think you get my point).
Social forces will drive the former, economic forces will drive the latter.
New York to some other city would be even worse. For example, New York to Seattle and you're approaching something like 20 hours.
I really love trains for short trips (NY to DC), but I just don't see the actual demand these long distance lines. Maybe we should just try and fix airport security and intra-urban mass transit instead.
Contrariwise, if we are that committed to TSA, whatever brain-dead political calculation forced us to waste an extra hour in the airport before every flight would almost certainly cause us to do the same before every train trip.
HSR would have to compete with the current airline system. If it's cheaper, more convenient to ride, and the time required to travel is comparable to airline, it could catch on, but as it stands I'm unsure if there's enough room for it to survive while competing against the airline system.
Commercial airlines travel at around 500-600 miles per hour, so if a HSR system is able to reach 220mph, then the plane will get you there about ~2.5x as fast. Of course. People consider their time to be valuable, so if you need to get somewhere quick, you'd likely just take the airplane, unless you're traveling somewhat nearby (like San Francisco to Los Angeles). It would appeal to most people not having to deal with the TSA, but there's no guarantee TSA wouldn't decide that it's their duty to "protect" (terrorize) the people in the HSR system as well.
Somebody please write me a message to convince me my message is nonsense and that a HSR system is a great idea.
At major city airports you easily lose 2 hours with security, taxing around the airport in the airplane doing 5 mph, and boarding/deplaning. Not to mention any weather delays, and good luck if you have luggage.
Plus, most airports are not that close to the city center. Most train stations in the city center. I'm most familiar with NYC, but I can walk from my office to 3 train stations (Penn Station, PATH, Grand Central) in less than 15 minutes. The 3 airports are all an hour in a subway or 30 minutes in a $50 cab ride away. The airports are also more subject to traffic. The last time I flew to Florida from NYC, I spent more time on the ground getting to JFK, waiting to get on the plane, and waiting to take off to NYC than in the air.
With all that said, 200-300 mile trips make a lot of sense by train. Boston->NYC, NYC->DC by train make a lot more sense than airplanes even in the best weather. When the planes get slowed down by bad weather, forget it. Even Boston->DC by train makes a lot of sense, even today with our relatively crappy high speed rail.
I imagine a train up and down the east coast of florida, or the California coast with slightly better technology would do similiarly well.
But a train from NYC to Chicago or Denver makes no sense. And definitely not for NYC to LA. As soon as the portion of the flight cruising increases beyond an hour or two, it just kills a train.
The hub should be shifted further west to help create another metro area, not to just add to an existing one that happens to also be very corrupt.
Or, at one time the US had one heck of a passenger train system: Could get a train from tiny town A and travel to tiny town B for nearly any two tiny towns A and B in the country. But as soon as the Model T came out, people rushed to buy them and use them in place of the trains, in spite of the fact that the roads were awful.
Since then the cars and roads have gotten much better. For short trips, train technology is not much better than 100 years ago when it started losing out to the Model T and has no chance now.
For long trips, we have airplanes.
Look, we could have 'high speed' ships to cross the Atlantic, too. And the last of the great Atlantic ships were fantastic. Alas, people didn't like them, needed all the luxury just to put up with the uncomfortable aspects of travel by ship, and, really, were eager just to get where they were going. So, when Boeing sold their 707 jets for crossing the Atlantic, the 707 jets quickly 'sunk' essentially all the passenger ships.
The Boeing 707 had some serious 'engineering-economic' advantages: (A) It was much lighter than a ship, no doubt much lighter per person carried so that are moving much less dead weight across the Atlantic. (B) It could make a round trip while a ship was at dock loading. (C) Net, per month, a Boeing 707 could carry enough passengers across the Atlantic to compete with a ship, for less money and much less time per passenger. That sank the ship.
For another detail, look at the map in the OP: The trains go long distances, commonly across a whole state, without stopping. E.g., in Tennessee, the trains stop in Nashville and Memphis, but between Memphis and Kentucky is about 100 miles that the trains bypass. So, for all those people bypassed, how will the train serve them? Yes, I saw the plan of a 'tram' that catches up with the high speed, non-stop train, 'couples up' side by side, does a transfer of people and baggage, 'decouples', and slows down. Still I expect that mostly the plan would be that people in the 100 miles from Memphis to Kentucky would have to drive a car, ride a bus, or take a slow train to reach Memphis. Now we are back to the old problems of handling luggage and making connections: That's why the train terminals were so big -- to have space for people waiting for connecting trains. Besides, passenger trains are vulnerable to Big Sis at the DHS and her TSA gang. A lot of people would rather walk than face the TSA; to drive a car 1000 miles to avoid the TSA is a great pleasure.
Net, for short to medium distances, say, 1000 miles or less, just drive a car and, then, have all the luggage in the car during the trip, all under own control for the whole trip, and have the car at the destination. For longer trips, take a plane as now.
Heck, there's a chance that modern blimps -- lighter than air craft -- could beat passenger trains.
Yes, I know: Maybe there are some lawyers who want to live in Manhattan, have their offices near Grand Central, take a fast moving train to DC, take a cab to Capitol Hill for the day, and reverse the process and be home for dinner early in the evening. Fine for people earning big bucks with an office near a train station and wanting to work at another office near another train station at most only a few hundred miles away. Sorry 'bout those people. For all the rest of us, we shouldn't pay subsidies for those few big bucks lawyers. Besides, have they heard of video conferencing?
My main objection to passenger trains is that they want to use publicity efforts such as the OP to build political support to tax people to pay subsidies for the trains. That is, the effort is to get into my checkbook. No thanks.
If they want to build the trains with capital raised privately, fine with me. If they wanted to proceed with private capital, then we wouldn't see publicity efforts such as the OP.