Is Twitter Really Worth $10 Billion?

HN guide: no.

Seriously, I do think Twitter is a great company, but one tenth of Amazon? The same as Nokia? Not to mention comparisons to non-tech companies...

I really don't get these valuations.

How much would it take to replace it?

Considerably less than $10 billion.

From that perspective, the largest component of its value is good will. (Its users continue to use it.)

In a world where setting up a new account is 5 minutes' work, spinning up and effectively connecting new servers is challenging but increasingly a commodity service, and where a relatively loose and dynamic social dynamic of "following" is the model...

(And where advertising is significantly externalized and transferable.)

I'm no analyst nor expert, and I don't particularly wish Twitter ill, but...

I still view such valuations as short-term metrics. They may not be... but I don't think this has yet been demonstrated.