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Comment by raverbashing | Hacker News Reader

You know, I'm thinking about this

You cannot motivate people with fear, at least not with fear alone

So, I'm thinking a military action is riskier to NK than it is to SK

SK will suffer causalities, sure, but I don't trust that a country, even militarized in abundance, without any meaningful social/economical structure can produce anything more than a fireworks show (even with decades old military technology from other countries).

And of course being obliterated in sequence.

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The problem is that Seoul lies within artillery range of North Korea, and you can't really defend against that, because it will take time to destroy all the artillery, and in the meantime Seoul is shelled to pieces. South Korea could easily invade North Korea and defeat it, but the civilian casualties would be enormous unless you can figure out a way to protect Seoul.

Complicating the matter is the fact that China is very pleased not having to share a border with South Korea, which they essentially view as an extension of the US. This was the whole point of the Korean war, after all.

I think the big question is what will China do if North Korea is attacked. Sure they have been against DPRK's actions lately.. but at crunch time what happens?

Apart from providing assistance, I don't think the Chinese would actively take part in any war started by DPRK. Even in the Korean war, they entered the war only after combined US-ROK forces crossed the Yalu river.

Either China invades or they let the rest of the world do as they want.

China won't help NK, why should they? Nothing to gain by going to war with the west, everything to gain by trading with them.

The last thing NK wants to do is a military action, why do you think they do all these tests and smoke and mirrors? They are provocative but can be talked down to what they want. They are all means to an end. If they had any kind of military action the full force of the UN would come down on them, that is the last thing they want.

Oh and yes you can motivate people with fear alone. History is riddled with instances of this.

>> Oh and yes you can motivate people with fear alone. History is riddled with instances of this.

Oh, I'm sure you can. What I mean is that it may be not the most efficient way of reaching your goal.

But yeah, there are a lot of cases where this works.

Can't they lob a nuclear weapon and destroy Seoul(not to mention artillery aimed squarely at Seoul)? That would be pretty devastating to South Korea.

I doubt North Korea has the capacity to mount a nuclear warhead on a missile or artillery shell. If they tried to drop it with a bomber it would surely be shot down. Yes they could devastate Seoul with artillery, but the question here is why would they do that and what would they have to gain from it. The only thing sure to happen from such an action would be full-scale war, and the subsequent collapse of the North Korean regime.

Unlike the first Korean War, the Chinese are not likely to be on their side, as this time around, China is much more integrated into the international stage (read depends much more on international trade and stable relations) and China has more to gain by siding with UN forces. Of course in the aftermath of such a war, China would still want a North Korean state friendly to the Chinese government, but I doubt they would go so far as to go to war with UN forces to achieve this. Most likely they would support military action to depose the current regime, but not a complete takeover of North Korea by the UN (not so unlike the last Korean War).

All they'd need is one suicide pilot flying at treetop height to span a gap of 35 miles.

The Korean DMZ is the most heavily militarized border in the world, I'm sure they've taken into account such possibilities. Not to mention the difficulty for North Korea to fit a nuclear warhead with any sort of meaningful yield on a small aircraft.

And navigating to Seoul (I don't think NKs planes have GPS, do they?), not to mention terrain issues, detection by radars, etc

And making the bomb work (and no, a static setup is different than putting everything in a package)

Worse case it goes off over NK, or it's dropped and it doesn't go off, or goes off when hitting the ground

> I don't think NKs planes have GPS, do they?

They couldn't buy something off the shelf for private aviation? Also, Seoul is pretty huge. Hitting it by dead reckoning or terrain navigation over 35 miles shouldn't be an issue.

You could sacrifice most of the range to fit the bomb. A large external pod would be feasible. (This was how the B-58 Hustler carried a bomb.)

Does the Koean Air Force fly CAP 24/7?

The aftermath would be devastating to them. The US and UN would invade. The situation would be a huge pain in the ass for China.

> You cannot motivate people with fear, at least not with fear alone

Fear is exactly what has kept North-Korea going for ages.

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