800 Giga Hash per second user just started mining at BTCGuild
mineforeman.com
mineforeman.com
"By the way, whoever user 67117 is they will be generating about 122.83 bitcoins a day at the rate of 800 GH/s, or $3,000 US Dollars at today’s rates."
Using the bitcoin mining hardware info at: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison ,
... assuming that the miner is using the Avalon ASIC batch #1 device, the reported hash rate per device is 68,000 mega hashes per second - which is 500 times faster than an example AMD 5770 graphics card. The Avalon box uses 400 watts. 800 giga hash per second could be supplied by 11 Avalon ASIC devices. Total they would cost $14000 plus shipping from China.
Plugging this data into the bitcoin mining profitability calculator at: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ , we get 122 bitcoins mined from the pool each day, at this moment valued at $26, for a total daily revenue of $3193. Only $15 worth of electricity is consumed at $0.15 kWh.
The mining hardware for this lucky miner pays for itself within a week.
More info about Avalon at: http://launch.avalon-asics.com/
As the owner of the BTCGuild mining pool said on his IRC channel, "welcome to the future"! Its obvious that graphic card based mining will not be profitable when ASIC mining rigs become common.
Lucky miners are those who invest first in disruptive technology rigs. Most miners are gambling that they can pay off their rigs before the technology changes.
The Avalon ASIC miners were pre-ordered which gave them enough cash to R&D and then produce them - but even if they had found cash somewhere else and made lots of miners for themselves it wouldn't be long until other people were selling ASIC miners and they were not so profitable. It's better for Avalon to make a name for themselves as a good place to get ASIC miners so they get all the business in the future.
I wouldn't be surprised if this user mining at 1.2 Thash/s is Avalon or one of the other ASIC manufacturers.
- The device in itself disrupts the mining hardware market. Should they mine by themselves, others would take notice and make their own ASIC hardware. They're in a much better place if they position themselves as the standard supplier for mining hardware, at least in the long run.
- I would see this ROI collapse as soon as this catches on. The market will be flooded with bitcoins, their individual value will diminish, and the bounty will likely decrease compounding the decrease. History says that the return will eventually (and soon) decrease to match the cost. Assuming the hardware is fairly priced (which it seems, given the current low volume), I would say the money value of those 122.83 bitcoins will come down to the same money value you would get out of $14k invested elsewhere.
- Whoever is operating the rig for user 67117, he's doing a hell of a marketing job for Avalon, just by being there. Is there any other offer in the world that can deliver on the promise "Give me $14k and you get $3k a day"? Sounds like a short-term proposition, but there's surely a good amount of money to make while it lasts.
They are about $1.4k/unit.
Summary: They probably didn't have the money to build anything, so they funded it using Kickstarter-like preorders.
They gathered the money for masks by selling the first batch. Now they own the masks, and they can make more of them relatively cheaply. I suspect that they are building their very own mining pool as we speak.
P.S. One problem these ASIC manufacturers have is not being able to shift a lot of BTC, the kind of which they would be hypothetically making by just mining themselves. Leave that matter to the miners to work out.
And let me introduce a few points to consider for an inspired by your calculation soon-to-be miner :)
1. BFL [2] and whoever else is able to produce an ASIC system start shipping very soon. All this hash power will skyrocket the difficulty, eventually decreasing the profits to today's GPU levels.
2. Volatility of BTC varies greatly and can be anything in a few months term. As I recall, the first gold rush happened in 2011, when GPU miners appeared. BTC peaked at over $30 in June and was less than $5 by November.
3. If you order your system now, you will likely get it in May if not later. Pre-orders started last summer and they're still waiting.
Happy mining :)
[1] http://garzikrants.blogspot.com.es/2013/02/avalon-miner-powe... [2] http://www.butterflylabs.com/
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:fzkWVrs...
Now at 1,211.06 GH/s... Wow. That's about $130,000 per month in the current market.
Let's call this what it is: The Bitcoin Rush.
--
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Gold_Rush#Developmen...
When I was running mining rigs in 2011, I used BTCGuild as they had very reasonable fees.
This kind of mining won't last very long because soon more people will have ASICs and it will become much harder to compete.
Most likely not, but still crazy to see someone mining this much when the price of a BTC is $26+
Need for presence of double coincidence of wants: For barter to occur between two people, both would need to have what the other wants.
Absence of common measure of value: In a monetary economy, money plays the role of a measure of value of all goods, so their values can be measured against each other; this role may be absent in a barter economy.
Indivisibility of certain goods: If a person wants to buy a certain amount of another's goods, but only has for payment one indivisible unit of another good which is worth more than what the person wants to obtain, a barter transaction cannot occur.
Lack of standards for deferred payments: This is related to the absence of a common measure of value, although if the debt is denominated in units of the good that will eventually be used in payment, it is not a problem.
Difficulty in storing wealth: If a society relies exclusively on perishable goods, storing wealth for the future may be impractical. However, some barter economies rely on durable goods like pigs or cattle for this purpose.
Currency already relies on our belief in its value. It won't last long when it's easier to trade for your own production and swap goods for things than to try and find a buyer for your bits.
The creations of others, for example. Or perishable goods that the buyer doesn't happen to have.
As long as there's anything to barter, there's something that can be traded using currency.
when it's easier to trade for your own production and swap goods for things than to try and find a buyer for your bits
It can't really be more difficult to find a buyer, because the person you're trading with is a buyer, even if (s)he pays using alternative means.
Finding traders is the same as finding a buyer and a seller, with the added restriction that they must be the same person.
Most importantly if automation and efficient manufacturing are so widely dispersed why would someone else accept goods they can just as easily make themselves?
You forgot to answer how I will save for retirement.
EDIT: I just saw your revision. You seem to assume that society will decide to give up currency go back to a barter based system. Why will we go back?
In essence, with such technology, and with such a culture of "it's okay for people to be useless and their marginal cost for the Federation to support is close to 0 so why not", it's not that hard to see how they can get rid of money. They still have de-facto currency and capital, though. e.g. natural dilithium is a common source of conflict among the space-faring races. But such sources of capital typically have instrumental value apart from being able to get other stuff with it.
This is all sci-fi speculation, though it can be useful to postulate various technologies existing and try and guess how humanity might be changed. I'll leave you with a simplified form of a particularly hairy one that some very smart people are spending their lives on right now. Will they succeed by 2100? 2500? Via I.J. Good:
"Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an "intelligence explosion," and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make."
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Look, I understand that you think the transition will be tough. I'm curious why you think we will make the transition.
EDIT: You have edited your post again.
"You seem adamant that currency will still have value when most people don't need it"
Why will people not need to store wealth in order to take care of their needs later in life?
At the moment bitcoin mining is all about solving blocks from newly created bitcoins. When they are gone, then bitcoin mining will be all about collecting transaction fees.
Basically you pay a small transaction fee and the miner gets that.
At first, bitcoins could be profitably mined using just your CPU. Back in July 2010, I solved two blocks by myself - there were no pools then - using my Linux development desktop.
Within a year, CPU mining was no longer profitable because gamers were re-purposing their AMI/AMD graphics cards for much more electricity-efficient mining. Again, all you had to due was to download software into an existing gaming rig.
Its actually far less effort and risk to simply buy and hoard bitcoins periodically during price dips. I gave up mining bitcoins in 2011 and sold off my six card 5770 rigs.
I believe that bitcoin hoarding has the same place in a diversified investment portfolio that gold does - namely some small percentage so that one can ignore short term price volatility.