Hey disaster novelists: Remember bicycles
futurepundit.com
futurepundit.com
1. It's remarkable how quickly bicycles can break down, especially when they're not made to be ridden (US department-store bikes, all Argentine bikes) and when you repair them with improvised tools and improvised or substandard components.
2. There are a fair number of specialized tools that you need for bike repair that are pretty hard to do without. You can maybe cut a cone wrench from a flattened spoon, and you can "press" out chavetas (cotters) with a hammer and chunk of steel instead of a cotter press, and you can true your rims on the bike if you have to, but how are you going to unscrew your freewheel without the right shape of freewheel extractor? Or break your chain without a chain breaker?
3. A bit further afield, you have to patch or replace your inner tubes when they spring leaks. But it's increasingly difficult to get working vulcanizing fluid for patching after the economy collapses; that shit doesn't have an indefinite shelf life. Ultimately you need to put together some kind of chemistry lab, using chemicals of unknown quality, in order to renew your supply of bike patch kits.
4. More generally, bicycles, like other industrial machinery, are allergic to entropy. The crucial resource needed to repack your wheel bearing balls isn't the steel to make the balls or the dead cow to grease them with; it's the knowledge about which balls are the right size, and which ones are already subtly cracked. Buy them in bulk and they cost a fraction of a cent. Install a ball of the wrong size and you could wreck your cones or your hub or even your body.
So I think bicycles are an important part of post-apocalyptic transportation, but keeping bicycles running without an economy populated with specialized equipment, materials brought from far away, and people with specialized knowledge could be quite challenging indeed.
How popular were bikes in Argentina before the collapse? How popular after? They haven't really taken hold in the parts of central America I've visited even though the weather is almost always suitable and the roads aren't that bad. People just take the bus, drive their car, or at worst, a small motorbike.
It's like bicycles don't even come up as an option.
Speaking as someone who lives in the bike theft capital of North America, it's possible they're too easily stolen and therefore people don't bother buying them in the first place. Cars are harder to steal since the police will at least pretend to investigate an automobile theft. They're also tagged with license plates and VINs to provide a small deterrent to theft in the first place.
Having rebuilt a Vanagon engine, I agree that cars are dramatically more difficult to maintain and repair.
> How popular were bikes in Argentina before the collapse? How popular after?
They're not very popular, although much more popular than in the US when I lived there. I don't know how popular they were before the last collapse; I assume about the same. Mostly the people who ride them do so because of some kind of antipathy to motorcycles. They are cheaper than even the cheapest motorcycles.
I should point out that if you have an income, bike repair services are cheap and abundant here in post-collapse Argentina, if often of low quality.
Note that I am not an expert, this is just what I gathered from WP and a few other sources.
Sweden had a financial crisis in the early 90s (perhaps 1990 to 1993). This was partly due to a real estate bubble in the 80s which collapsed. Unemployment "soared" (from ~2% to ~10%, which many countries would be fairly happy with). The central bank at one point set overnight interest rates at 500% (!!!). Yikes. At one point the federal deficit was 15% of GDP. Sweden recovered through the mid-90s. Their unemployment rate continues to be much higher than pre-1990, but they've run a budget surplus most years since 1998 (everyone is envious).
Argentina had a completely unrelated crash, about 10 years later. It started in 1998 (by which point Sweden was firmly recovered). There was an IMF bailout, but Argentina couldn't hold up their end of the deal, and the bailout collapsed. 20% economy shrink, 25% unemployment, peso devalued by 75%, rampant poverty, holy crap that sounds really really not fun at all. In 2002, there was a two week period with five different presidents, what the hell. Macroeconomic indicators start getting better by 2002; the government has run a small budget surplus for most of the time since then, and unemployment returned to the single digits by 2007 (still worse than a lot of countries, but 7% today is a hell of a lot better than 25% in 1999).
And that's what I learned this morning. Who knows what the afternoon will bring?
The bike kitchen I'm talking about is La Fábricicleta, and it's hosted by the Asamblea Popular de Villa Urquiza, which is dominated by anarchists and is one of the few asambleas that hasn't become irrelevant.
If you have a fairly new car and you can get fuel, you might be able to travel thousands of miles without a repair. And they come with a spare tire. And you can carry tools and extra oil and a mechanic.
FWIW, you can carry more spare inner tubes on a bike than spare tires on a car, and although I've had bike inner tubes punctured by goatheads, maladjusted brake pads, tacks, and a burr on a spoke nipple that cut its way through my improvised post-apocalyptic rim strip made of electrical tape, I don't think I've ever had a broken-glass puncture.
I think both bikes and cars have highly variable resiience to hostile conditions. You can get bikes with big fat BMX tires, put Kevlar strips and thick inner tubes inside, and pour in a bit of Slime, and you probably don't have to worry much about punctures or pinch flats or blowouts, unless you have misadjusted rim brakes like the ones I mentioned before. And there are plenty of cars that aren't fairly new and can't travel even dozens of miles without a repair.
But as far as repair equipment goes, I think I think a bicycle repair kit (should be good for half a dozen punctures and they last years) and a multitool (for removing wheels and the like) should suffice for a lot, even if certain occasions need special tools.
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And "airless" tires are starting to appear as well.
> Racing bicycles are probably not well-suited for post-apocalyptic duty.
Probably not, a touring or XC-type mountain bike is probably a better idea (or an hybrid, more efficient than an XC but with more "all terrains" abilities than a straight touring bike).
Although they still have the issue outlined in http://www.livestrong.com/article/222689-airless-bicycle-tir... (on the subject of the previous airless generation, using flexible foam instead of rubber fill): shocks can't be spread around as they are in pneumatic tires (where the tire gets overpressured all around and most of the shock's energy is spread around the tire unless it's so big it reaches — and damages — the wheel's rim)
So I could be wrong.
And at a push, you can make one of these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chukudu
Bikes can be improvised.
I have every tool needed to repair my bike - I put it together from a frame and parts - and I'll bet that quite a lot of other cyclists do too. I could easily carry them all on my bike, too.
As others have mentioned, the resources to maintain bikes are not zero cost. Also, bikes rust in wetter areas fairly quickly if left outside/not maintained (your average chain is going to last ~ a year outside if not reoiled).
Bikes, mile per mile are more dangerous than walking, this might be because of cars etc, but with cracking roads and overgrowth, the risk to riding a bike becomes higher than walking. A single screw up on a bike is survivable in the modern world, it is less so in a post-apocalyptic one.
Bikes leave you vulnerable while travelling, you have to stick to main developed roads, you can only move so fast, you are easily taken out by a simple road trap. You have very little ability to 'take in surroundings' and you have to stop moving and abandon your bike to fight or hide. In a 'world gone mad' scenario someone on a bike moving overland is an easier target than someone on horse or on foot.
Bicyling long distances sucks a lot, especially for people who don't do it a lot. It's brutal on the body, hard to cross anything with elevation, and hurts the body in unique ways. Your average person might give up cycling fairly quickly for this reason. Horses, at least, travel with you when riding on them sucks.
Bikes don't work as well under non-ideal conditions. Heavy rain/snow/ice/elevation/heat all make bikes difficult to use or damage them.
Skateboards solve a lot of these (as they are easily portable). But the risk factor gets higher.
I'm not saying these items would be useless in a post-apocalyptic scenario. However, like most items, if someone wasn't extensively prepared to maintain and use them in a similar scenario, it's going to not work out for them except in the short term. (The same could be said about guns/cars/motorcycles).
It is because of cars. I went to FARS (http://www.nhtsa.gov/FARS) and queried accident causes for 2011. 42% of the accident causes start with the word "motorist". Many of the other causes would also simply not exist in a world without motor vehicle traffic, e.g., "Bicyclist Ride Through - Sign Controlled Intersection" -- this means running a stop sign, and it isn't something that would kill you in a post-apocalyptic world. In fact, the only cause I can see which is clearly not related to the presence of motor vehicles are the categories "head-on: bicyclist" and "head-on: unknown". When I click on cases with causes listed as "Bicyclist Ride Out" or others like that, I see a form that lists a motor vehicle as being involved.
I think you're missing the biggest point here, and that is the fact that biking burns less calories per mile than walking does. A quick Google search:
http://www.livestrong.com/article/135430-calories-burned-bik...
http://walking.about.com/cs/howtoloseweight/a/howcalburn.htm
These sources say if you weigh 190 pounds, you burn 47 calories per mile on bike going 10-12 miles/hour, but at least 94 calories per mile when you walk 3.5 miles/hour. You cover the same distance in 1/3 the time and burning 1/2 the calories, or you cover 2x the distance with the same amount of energy, or you cover 3x the distance in the same amount of time for only 50% more calories. (Edit: I got the math wrong earlier.)
The fact is, modern city-dwellers are simply not used to walking or biking long distances. Walking long distances sucks a lot, it's brutal on the body. Far worse, per mile, than biking. At worst, you can walk your bike and load it down with more than you could carry, or you could abandon your bike.
Unless the tires are flat, you can also walk with your weight on the bike and ease the burden of walking somewhat.
If walking turns into scrambling or climbing the bike becomes a bit of a hinderance, but they're not that heavy and the benefits across most terrain outweigh the inconvenience. In fact on a bike you could probably avoid it altogether, not losing a great deal of time just going around.
You're not likely to still be travelling long distances long enough after whatever event that the roads and paths are in such a state of disrepair. You'd be talking years for that to happen and you probably would have had to sort out some sort of place to live and grow food long before you had to worry about it.
Similarly for years I would ride a BMX to the supermarket, then load up the handlebars with shopping bags and walk it home - no struggling with heavy bags, and no need for a car or even a bus (which still leaves you struggling from the stop to your house) - I can easily do a full weeks shop for 2 on a bike. Now I have a proper shopper with panniers and baskets - even easier - but handlebars are all you really need!
For a guy that travels all sorts of roads on what is pretty much a racer check out: http://ultralightcycling.blogspot.co.uk/
Really, bicycles have a lot of advantages in any kind of material shortage. I've just been a bit down on them because of the amount of work they need.
http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/12/the-chinese-wheelbarr...
Horses and dogs take a lot of maintenance (more for horses obviously), but unlike a bike, car, or gun, anyone who owns one and thinks of taking it on a long trip is more likely to know how to keep it alive.
They make more of themselves.
And a horse is, last resort, dinner.
It's not relevant because funny joke comments are worse (from the perspective of ideal HN behaviour) than unfunny joke comments; it's the funny ones that get more replies, and that means more off-topic noise hiding the on-topic signal (where topicality is defined in newsguidelines.html).
Yet, when I think about possible collapse I do worry about some interesting things, like, who will replace my glasses?
I never heard in a disaster novel of people having problem to find glasses, yet I believe glasses manufacturers will not be much...
Justin Cronin, The Passage.
It's a hundred years after the world ended, one minor character is terribly near-sighted. And he's gone through all of the glasses 'from the old days' his small community has in the storeroom and none of them help.
It stuck with me because, hey, he's about as near-sighted as I am.
So... alright, I took a sheet of paper, a nail scissor, made several (square and low quality...) holes on it.
Removed my glasses.
Looked a computer screen, and could not see shit.
Looked through paper.
I could read.
OMGWTF!!!!! IT WORKS!!!
Sir thank you! I am much happier know knowing that I am not doomed to not be able to read anymore in case something happen and noone make glasses for me anymore!
Or on a one-way trip to mars.
If you're the rebuilding type (and not escaping zombies), add to that list :
Steam locomotives
Sleighs (and horses, goats, oxen, dogs etc... to pull them)
Hang gliders
Ethanol converted 1968 Lincoln Continental
And extra feet
If the apocalypse does happen, the civlized world will likely fare the worst.p.s. Max Brooks: Zombie Survival Guide was thoroughly enjoyable.
The Zombie Survival Guide also recommends motorcycles and machetes.
I know many of these comments are somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but really, there will not be a survivable apocalypse. Sorry, survivalists, just. not. gonna. happen.
1. liquor 2. cigarettes
Cigs have often been used as a substitute for money when there wasn't money.
I just kind of think a bicycle may not be that useful in some parts of a zombie-infested rural Georgia.
Really? I find that mine has always turned into a solid block whenever I need it.
After that the roads are going to be torn up by weather and no maintenance and then riding a bike may or may not be such a good choice.
If we're just wanking along, what to me seems most likely is a 'Fall of Rome' deal where things gradually get worse but no one fully realizes it because it happens so slowly.
One doesn't know they're living in the ruins of an empire, it's just the way things are.
Why not? It has before.
IIRC, medieval farmers in Gaul had crop yields a fraction of their Roman ancestors farming the same land. No soil depletion - they'd forgotten how to farm.
This seems silly - it's _food_. It would be like people in 21st century forgetting how to refrigerate their food. 'The meat goes bad so quickly now, I wonder why?'
But it happened.
"minimum sensible size for a modern society?"
The number 10,000 is in my head, but I don't know if that's an actual real number of something a scifi writer made up.
"cquiring raw materials like iron "
Well .. every guy at the mine face digging out ore is supported by .. well a whole lotta people. Someone makes the tools, generates electricity, makes lightbulbs, and pumps, and motors, and food, and builds and maintains the railroad getting the ore to the smelter. The guy at the smelter needs lights, and electricity, and food, and tools.
Border defense! If you've got civilization there are going to be people outside of it who want to rip off what you've got. Better make sure the army is fed, and supplied.
10,000 seems like a very low number, suddenly.
The local library was looted when the Empire withdrew from the outer provinces.
Big deal! You're a farmer speaking medieval French: the books are in Latin.
And you can't read anyway - no schools.
And even if there were schools you couldn't go. As soon as you could walk Dad needed you for a farm hand. For some reason we don't get the crop yields Gram'pa did and we gotta work can see to can't see just to get barely enough food to survive.
Oh come on. This is like complaining that The Matrix has inconsistencies.
Come to think of it, that's been done (some French indie award winner dealt pretty heavily with work & family reintegration of the risen.) The genre is thoroughly tapped.
Any idea what that film was? I must see it.
When I'm walking and a bicyclist passes me, I generally don't hear them coming until they're past. Likewise when I'm bicycling around a pedestrian, they don't hear me unless I deliberately make noise.
I do hear pedestrians.