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If anything, predictions based on the innovator's dilemma were wrong: http://daringfireball.net/2012/07/iphone_disruption_five_yea...

I think disruptive innovation is a very useful concept, but this just goes to show how hard it is to apply a priori.

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I actually thought about mentioning that article. I think it is important to point out that someone who outlines a theory as broad as disruptive innovation is not always the best person to apply it in every situation. I think he made a mistake when he chose the competitive frame for the iPhone to be all cell phones. I think the right competitive frame is smart phones. That makes all the difference in the assessment.

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