Hacker News Reader

Comment by kjackson2012 | Hacker News Reader

kjackson2012

Sometimes you hear things that instantly change your views on the world.

I have to say that this above post, in about 10 seconds of reading it, has completely changed my views on assessing risk.

The idea of quantifying risk by counting the number of mistakes you are away from catastrophic failure is an excellent way to visualize risk. It's a simple way to calculate risk, and an even easier way to teach my kids. Thank you.

View on HN

There's a similarly great passage in 'The Great Gatsby':

It was on that same house party that we had a curious conversation about driving a car. It started because she passed so close to some workmen that our fender flicked a button on one man's coat.

"You're a rotten driver," I protested. "Either you ought to be more careful or you oughtn't to drive at all."

"I am careful."

"No, you're not."

"Well, other people are," she said lightly.

"What's that got to do with it?"

"They'll keep out of my way," she insisted. "It takes two to make an accident."

"Suppose you met somebody just as careless as yourself."

"I hope I never will," she answered. "I hate careless people. That's why I like you."

Is that from the original? There's a lot of 'e's in that passage.

Are you thinking of Gadsby? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadsby_%28novel%29

I had heard about "Gadsby" first, so when high school friends told me they were reading "The Great Gatsby", I was quite confused about why their English class would assign a book most known for not using the letter 'e'.

Yes, The Great Gatsby, published 1925, by F. Scott Fitzgerald, not the later lipogrammatic Gadsby, 1939, by Ernest Vincent Wright.

You have convinced me I should re-read that book. I was young and foolish the first time, and not looking to learn lessons.

As a classic it's usually taught to teenagers... but I think you need to be out of school (probably late 20's), having seen some of the rhythm and trajectory of adult relationships/careers, to appreciate the characters.

I am skeptical.

I am one street crossing away from death. You are one car ride with a seat belt away from death.

You really need to have some rough probabilities attached to things for this to be reasonable.

He is talking about mitigating risk, not avoiding it.

His life expectancy was 90, but they never say that this number is also accounting for people that fall in the shower.. Right?

So everyones risk goes down slightly too.

It's a good way to design software too.

Are you an engineer? Redundancy is basic stuff for websites.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com