Why The Idea of a Google Driverless Car is Nonsense
forbes.com
forbes.com
The title should be, Don't forget Volvo, Nissan, BMW and others are working on driverless cars too. The future will be awesome.
Why is anyone getting worked up over this.
I'll tell you why it's being done by Google. A computer driving a car is an artificial intelligence problem. Google is fundamentally an artificial intelligence company.
Car companies are not artificial intelligence companies. They're not even software companies - just look at antiquated the average stereo/navigation system is in even the latest, most expensive cars.
I'd definitely rather have Google do it and license it back to the car companies than have the car companies do it on their own.
The software is going to be solved in the next 5-10 years. The hard part after that is dropping the sensor price enough to make this work (a lot of the SICK lasers are $35k+ still). But 10-15 years from now, we are going to have self driving cars for sale, no question in my mind.
- Fuel injection: software
- ABS: software
- Airbags: software
- Traction control: software
- Brake assist: software
- That clicker that opens your car door: software
Etc.
His point about GPS is an apt one. My brother has the best SUV Infinity makes and the GPS is so terrible, he uses his phone (android) instead.
Driverless car projects have been around for 30 years. Anyone following European R&D in this area can easily cast their minds back to the DRIVE project
That's awesome. Where were they in DARPA's 2 Grand Challenges and the Urban Challenge [1]? We can also cast our minds to ALV [2] and NAVLAB [3], which were state-of-the-art in 80s and 90s respectively, so what? They demonstrated that a computer can control the car in a strict sense -- keeping it on the road and maybe stopping for obstacles, but driving is a bit more complicated than that. The real challenge is in navigating from point A to point B which observing rules of the road and interacting with other traffic participants safely -- something that was not demonstrated until 2007. Google's autonomous car program grew directly out of CMU's and Stanford's Urban Challenge projects.
Volvo pulled off the more impressive feat of platooning the three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometres on a busy Spanish motorway.
It's not a more impressive feat by anyone's standard. Following the leader is a much simpler problem than navigating traffic independently.
[1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge_(2007)#Ov...
[2]: http://www.aaai.org/ojs/index.php/aimagazine/article/view/21...
Because of the liability involved in the American legal environment.
I've long suspected that Europe, Japan, or Korea will beat the US to commercially viable driverless cars.
Premise: "Car companies have been toying with driverless cars for years, so the idea that Google will produce driverless cars end-to-end is without merit"
What I can't understand is who thinks Google is going to be building these cars. Has anyone claimed that, even the referenced Forbes article? I don't think so. As others suspect, Google wants to offer the brains to these car companies, and tie them into the world of other Google services (Android phones, browser integration, ad injection, media streaming, etc).
Look at it another way: Microsoft supplies much of the tech to Ford, Hyundai, and others for their in-car "infotainment" systems, that doesn't mean when they started the CAR.NET initiative in the '90s they were trying to take on Ford and GM.
If Google's driverless tech is more dependent on geographical/geospatial data than monitoring actual conditions, it's going to fail horribly. Roads can change a lot day-to-day from storms, accidents, construction, etc.
Read this and I think it will make more sense: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/09/how-go...
I think that covers the hardest bits. Maintaining safe distances, self parking, and obstacle avoidance were nearly solved problems before Google started the driver-less cars program.
That article doesn't address my concerns at all - namely roadway changes caused by factors like construction, storm washouts, etc - that haven't been integrated into the geographical/geospatial data.
Driverless cars involve so much more than just an algorithm. It is the hardware integration, safety and reliability, regulatory and compliance and the worldwide scalability of the approach.
Google may understand the algorithm but they have nothing to contribute elsewhere.
this is much more than a software problem. i've heard of people verifying opcode behavior on avionics processors to determine the correct implementation of the hardware - when your software relies on it it's fair game.
i don't doubt that google could do this if they made it a priority. but it's a huge issue that encompasses more than a "software algorithm." if the collisions sensors degrade over time doesn't matter if the software works.
Yet the only thing they shouldn't forget is that cars are not computers. I'm not sure that Google's modified Prius will be as enjoyable (when driving) as a BMW 1 Series for instance.
We're talking about self-driving cars.