High-speed trains are coming to America
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onearth.org
Airplane security for all passengers came about primarily because of hijackings, and was later adapted (badly) to bombs and suicide tactics. Planes are a more suitable target for these types of attacks because of many reasons, including the virtually unlimited amount of possible destinations (unfortunately also including the ground or buildings). Even a small explosion on a plane can bring it down, and there is already an existing factor of fear when flying.
The current level of airline security is still ridiculous, given all of this, but it would be doubly so on a train system. Hijacking a train is borderline pointless, crashing one into something is next to impossible, and derailing from on-board would be a pretty large challenge. Trains are also at ground-level, which is less than ideal for hostage scenarios.
Trains are only a sexy target because they have a large number of people on them, and even then people are relatively spaced out along a long line. In my opinion this makes them even less attractive to a terrorist than any other crowded space.
Remember, America is almost 45 years behind the rest of the world here. The first Shinkansen in Japan went 130mph and started carrying passengers in 1964. We still don't have anything like that (except Acella), in 2009.
This is really important if you think that we do have an in active terrorist (or political liberation, according to some) group in Spain, which targeted those trains in the past.
(I think metal detectors are pointless, since there is no intrinsic value in blowing up a high-speed train. A terrorist will just go for the subway instead, where security measures will be too intrusive. Oh well, everyone loves their security theater.)
Also, once you are on a train, the crew doesn't have to spend as much time doing pre-departure stuff like checking seatbacks/belts/tray tables and running through the safety instructions that no one listens to.
Lastly, they have a slight advantage (when run well) of being pretty darn consistent on departure and arrival times, meaning riders don't have to leave as much fudge time. In my experience, if you only have a carry-on, you can catch a plane by showing up an hour early, but you can catch a train by showing up 30 mins early (I'm thinking of the Eurostar, where security is similar to an airport).
Personally I think the big advantage is passenger comfort. The comfort level of a high speed train, even in 2nd class, is better than first class on a plane. There is more space, you can stand/sit/walk at will, and there is actually something to look at besides a white ocean of clouds. Not to mention the bathrooms aren't the size of high school lockers.
In the US and Japan, I have done even better than this -- you can show up right at the scheduled departure time, and as long as you make it through the doors, everything is fine. (The train in the US wasn't high-speed, FWIW.)
This works nicely in Japan, especially, as the train frequencies on the Shinkansen are almost the same as commuter trains. If you don't have a reservation, you can just get on whatever train you like. This convenience would obviously never work for airlines.
Personally I think the big advantage is passenger comfort. The comfort level of a high speed train, even in 2nd class, is better than first class on a plane.
I think the convenience is that trains can go to the city-center. Everywhere I go, it always adds an extra hour on each end to get from the city center to the airport. (Chicago Midway and NY LaGuardia are a bit different in this respect.)
Even with not-that-high-speed trains, this seems to make it convenient enough to consider using. I know the Boston/Washington DC corridor benefits from this. (They are all short flights, but it is a pain to go from the city center to the airport, wait a while, spend 30 minutes on the plane, and then go from the airport to the destination city center. If you take the train, you cut out all the waiting and needless travel, you arrive at your actual destination.)
I'm all for more trains but as someone else pointed out, SF to LA is a weird route. Once you get to LA, what do you do? Rent a car? The other direction makes more sense but I wonder if there are many people who actually go from LA to SF on a regular basis. I actually do, and it only costs $40 on Virgin America and hardly anyone is on the plane.
It would make more sense having high speed rail going from SF->PDX->SEA->VAN... at least once you get to those cities you can get around without a car.
Yes, very good point. Even only connecting Portland / Seattle / Vancouver would be fine. That is a short enough distance for rail to be competitive, and there is definitely demand on that route. (Last time I needed to go from Seattle to Portland, flying was actually cheaper than Amtrak. And the flight was out of Boeing Field, so there was no security to deal with.)
I like trains, but as passenger transport, they're not competitive.
Yes, I know about the energy efficiency of a full train. However, you can't have both decent utilization (reasonably full trains) and reasonable ridership. And, if you don't shoot for reasonable ridership, the fixed and labor costs will kill you. At reasonable ridership, lower utilization kills the realized efficiency and you're still having trouble with fixed and labor costs.
Note that govt involvement makes things worse. If a congress critter comes from a particular town, that town will get a stop, regardless of whether that makes sense. (Stops have a huge impact on average speed.)
Combined spending by federal, state, and local governments on roads and airports amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars a year. Not exactly a profitable enterprise. Throw in the billions spent by end users of these roads on their own vehicles, and it's hard to see why there is such a fuss over the funding of trains.
I'm not saying they are always the best solution in every situation. Planes will continue to win for long distances, and roads will continue to win for short ones, but there is a definite middle ground where trains shine.
Having some double standard about profitability and competitiveness when we subsidize airports and highways to the tune of hundreds of billions a year seems rather disingenuous.
And I wholeheartedly agree with your statement about government involvement leading to perverse decisions, but remember that this is the case whether we are talking about trains or highways or any other big spending project.
Profit is not measured by spending, but by the relationship between spending and revenue.
> it's hard to see why there is such a fuss over the funding of trains.
Because they lose public money - they cost more to build and run than folks will pay to use them. I've no objection to you spending your money on them, but I'd rather not spend my money on them.
> Having some double standard about profitability and competitiveness when we subsidize airports and highways to the tune of hundreds of billions a year seems rather disingenuous.
We don't subsidize highways; the total taxes collected more than cover the costs. That's why the rail folks try to get a piece of it.
Sorry, but this is a commonly held misconception. From this article: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,274113,00.html
"Close to two-thirds of the trust fund's $40 billion in receipts last year came from the gasoline tax."
So the trust fund, which is made up of gas and diesel taxes, amounts to about $40 billion a year.
As I have pointed out before here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=260824
Total federal outlays were about $67 billion that same year, and states and local governments usually throw in billions more.
And besides, I never claimed you can't fund rail via use taxes. But subsidizing roads to the tune of billions a year and expecting rail infrastructure to compete without such subsidies is just silly.
This rings true, but I'm not sure.
Isn't the truth the weaker statement that new ventures which can't clearly demonstrate, in advance, that their balance of return+risk is likely to be better than investment in their competitors are unlikely to be funded?
And with larger ventures, which require significant investment in infrastructure, this calculation is skewed against new players (and new approaches - where rail counts as a 'new approach' for these purposes)?
Subsidy can tip the balance by reducing the initial risk, effectively lowering barriers to entry and thus encouraging more competition?
[Your other comments about viability are presumably dependent on passenger volumes/density etc. e.g. Local light rail works well in some cities. It may well be that all intercity services would come under your characterisation tho.]
That's an interesting, but different and irrelevant question because there's no reason to believe that high speed rail in the US won't require on-going subsidies. The only argument is over how big they'll be.
Run the numbers on every proposal you see. Compare the total salaries for the "jobs created" to the projected revenue (ridership * average fare). Look at the estimates for other on-going costs. Look at the startup costs.
That's an awfully broad statement without qualifications...
They work quite well in many places in Europe. I think some components to the recipe for success are: reasonably dense population, lots of car traffic, convenience (train stations have to be fairly close to where people want to go, and connected to other public transport), reasonable distances (less than plane distances, greater than bus distances). Another thing that helps here in Italy is that they're reasonably frequent between major destinations... if I miss one train to Venice or Vicenza, there will certainly be another one in an hour, if not a half an hour.
In other words, in the US, it makes sense to build trains, say, in the bay area, but probably not so much between San Francisco and Los Angeles - there isn't that much car traffic between the two cities, and in LA, which is so spread out, you're screwed if you depend on public transportation. Also, it's far enough that a plane is a lot faster. On the other hand, Milan to Rome is roughly a four hour train ride, center to center - so by the time you factor in going to the airport, checking in, flying, baggage claim, getting back to the center of Rome, they take about the same time, and the train is less stressful.
Rome to Milan - 357 miles
Not that much difference. Either way would take a couple hours at the 170mph figure they are citing, and you are right to point out that anything under about 4 hours is going to beat planes, where you waste a couple hours in pre/post flight.
Los Angeles to Las Vegas seems like a prime route, at 278 miles. I have had to drive that a few times, and the traffic on I-15 is often so heavy as to be nearly at a standstill. Las Vegas would probably see an obvious boost in weekenders as well.
I think there are other targets outside Cali and the NE too. The KC -> St Louis stretch of I-70 is very heavily trafficked, and is 250 miles, which is long enough that trains beat cars but short enough that they can also beat airlines.
Half the population of the US that lives west of the rockies, lives within 15 miles of I-5.
Imagine getting on the train in Seattle in the morning, switching trains in Sacramento and arriving in San Francisco in mid-afternoon. With wifi and cell phone coverage fully available for the whole trip.
We HAD such trains. Why will they make money now when they lost money before?
However, don't let me discourage you from building such a train, as long as you pay for it. If you're right, you get rich. If you're wrong....
Railroads, in fact all major transportation infrastructure projects, have always been dependent on government participation. It is just not possible to build a project that requires rights-of-way stretching over vast distances and needing planning horizons extending decades into the future without the government being involved, if only to settle the inevitable disputes.
I do find it amusing that Atlas Shrugged idolized the railroad barons and the industrialists who fed off them since in reality their businesses were completely dependent on government subsidies; and would not have been nearly as successful had the United States not been GIVING vast tracts of land to railroad companies to fund their expansion.
But leaving all of that sordid history and ideological self-delusion aside. I would be happy to invest my money in railroad bonds that were devoted to expanding the I-5 transportation corridor with a high-speed rail link.
And as a side note for the Keynesians in the audience, a major construction effort on that scale would be expected to add approximately 40-70,000 jobs for the duration of construction, and provide a measurable gdp multiplier for the region it serves once it comes into operation.
My point is that it doesn't stop with arranging for right-of-way and settling contract disputes - it starts there.
> I would be happy to invest my money in railroad bonds that were devoted to expanding the I-5 transportation corridor with a high-speed rail link.
And I'd be happy to let you if the bonds are backed by the project and not any entity with taxation powers.
I know some people who don't really like to fly, and still prefer train or car in travelling.