What the Stock Market Really Thinks About the Economy

its hard to find something like this convincing when the "index" that is the core of his argument is only taken back to 1998

We've been running a series of workshops [1] which include looking at stock market information like this and applying it to the broader economy. The principle is that because the market "ought to reflect anticipated future profits" of businesses it can be used to make some predictions about the broader economy 6-12 months ahead.

Ie, if the market goes down, the economy will move down in 6-12 months. And the market turning around will foretell a broader turnaround in 6-12 months.

One common mistake to be avoided [2], which the five points in this article cover, is that not every sector and certainly not every business is tarred with the same brush. I particularly like the example that investing in Wind Power might help the economy while harming the Stock Market.

Just because broader things are down, doesn't mean you and your business have to be.

[1] http://www.shirlawsonline.com/events/257-thrive-not-survive-... [2] http://www.shirlawsonline.com/assets/0000/1868/The_Five_Mist...

This is a great post. there any many insightful articles out there, all of them with insightful comments/theories. My personal opinion is that one should wait for Q1 reports and base forward judgments of the market based on what results and fundamental investment/market theories. The only thing the market has taught me over the past 8 months is that media is ever-permeable and fear mongering doesn't just exist in politics.