The Importance of the Facebook Redesign
unalone.tumblr.com
unalone.tumblr.com
Right now Facebook's in a position where they don't have to change in order to stay up top. Their design is pretty tight - tighter than any other site - and they've got enough of a monopoly that people don't feel the need to switch over. Their real competition comes from mobile sites like Loopt, and those are still a pretty slim set of the market right now.
Part of me thinks they're innovating just to appeal to product sales. Another part of me thinks that some of the people up top at Facebook are innovating because they really think they're breaking ground. I'd bet it's a mix of the two.
The best solution I've seen is what the Vanilla forum system does (http://getvanilla.com). They provide a bunch of options to give you slices into information. What are the last 5 threads you visited? Which are new? Which were the last 5 you replied to? The idea of thinly slicing information is excellent and works very well if you're a focused web site. (It inspired a lot of my startup's front page design.)
The problem is that Facebook is all about the aggregation. They can't dedicate that many resources to one application. For them, it's all about that little notification window, and that means that you can probably only really give users one little notification for any particular update. So, unless their users click into the Groups application, there's nothing they can do.
It would be interesting to see if, now that Facebook's increasing their level of aggregation, they begin increasing the amounts of information an application can pipe to users. That might let Groups gain prominence again, at the risk of increasing the level of spam existent on the site.
I understand I'm asking for a purely hypothetical prediction.
Facebook's one of the few sites I've never predicted correctly. That last change was unexpected - I didn't expect they'd decentralize the profile pages that much. A part of me still hopes they'll tie Pages into the user's profile page more - "Books" taking you to communities created for each specific book - and I think that would be a good method for them to bring more content holders into the fray, but for whatever reason, I doubt that will actually happen.
The process tends to be that a site will unify its design, then break it up more. Facebook is unifying everything right now. The next step would be to find new niches to break the site down into, so they can bring a new fresh feel to the site. Considering they've all-but-abandoned the "base it on colleges" design, and now they're moving towards more commercial things, I'm wondering if they'll begin shifting it back again with a new emphasis on networks. I wouldn't bet either way, though: my track record is pretty bad for Facebook guesses.
On Wednesday, they'll reveal a design a lifestreaming service. It remains to be seen if it will be popular. The site can continue to be popular based on the number of users it has, but in order for the new design to be popular, the users need to actually use its features. Until it is released, it is too early to tell if that will be the case.
It's not about features. Facebook added nothing. They just reorganized what they had already, and in doing so changed their focus.
*Not counting Facebook Marketplace, which was reliant on money to work.
If you choose to use Facebook, you choose to play by their rules. Nobody forces you to pick them over anybody else.
(Similar is the problem with AIM; I don't like it, but few people I talk to use anything else.)
(Zuckerberg recently said on Twitter that Facebook is opening itself up as much as possible this year, so hopefully everybody gets to be happy!)