Trailer now available for Ray Kurzweil's movie, "Transcendent Man"
transcendentman.com
transcendentman.com
The book (The singularity is near), which serves as the basis for the movie is one of the most thought provoking reads I have had in a long time.
He looks at various trends throughout history (like Moore's Law) which follow an exponential curve, and he extrapolates the curve into the future.
There may be some arm waving here and there, but there is definitely something to his theories.
Summary: "Most people overestimate what can be accomplished in the short term and underestimate what can be accomplished in the long term".
I prefer the ideas of Aubrey De Gray, because while they require future-technology and future-developments, they don't require intelligence amplification or AI or thought-to-be-impossible technology, and if done successfully would give us longer lives which might be the equivalent of amplified intelligence allowing a way round said wall (i.e. work at the same level of smartness, but for longer).
Douglas Hofstadler (Godel Escher Bach author) says that perhaps humans aren't smart enough to understand and recreate consciousness.
Thanks for the Aubrey De Gray reference. Found a video interview of him here: http://bloggingheads.tv/diavlogs/16508
That's the nature of exponentials. It will look like we have a lot of headroom to spare, but in a couple of steps - wham.
Exponential doubling run backwards: 100% - full. 50% - one step earlier. 25% - two steps earlier.
Two doublings before the limit, you look around and see 75% room to grow into - why would there suddenly be a problem, there's so much room for manoeuvre, stop worrying.
This film has a feeling to me of a ... startup trying to launch on technical impressiveness. Only a few people will care, and they have probably already heard about it.
My mother is not a scientist -- she only graduated from High School. She is also very religious and spiritual.
So you might be inclined to stereotype or judge her (or other people's Mothers) and assume that you know their points of view on Ray Kurzweil, or science in general.
But you might be surprised, if you actually got to know some of these people.
I really credit my Mother with inspiring my interest in computers and science. When I was younger she used to read me "science books for kids" and then bought all the Time-Life Science books (including the one on the "Universe") she could get her hands on, for me to read.
She even signed me up for a subscription to "Discover-Magazine" and "Popular Science" when I was a teenager!
Not bad for a "stay at home Mom" who has serious Catholic views, and "just a high school diploma".
I think Kelly is right by the way (he's the guy with white hair and a chin strap beard). There has been too much focus on this guy, and the hope he brings to people. It should motivate people, but only enough to learn or tech more engineering to get there faster with practical, immediate action.
Wait is this one of those 1980s AI-in-25-years predictions or is this a new 2009 We're Really Serious This Time, Guys prediction?
I explain why here: http://www.maximise.dk/blog/2008/11/why-singularity-may-neve...
Life was still better during the Great Depression than it was only a few decades earlier. Progress will continue even if the political and economic landscape is unfavorable.
His conclusion is that it's unlikely, and I agree.
Technology won't slow down, it can't, not even a depression could slow it down. The information is too available and the school numbers are still high.
That's the tough thing. Maybe the only way to know God is to become God, at which point we just take it all for granted, like any other technology we integrate into our lives.
Other people prefer go and live in Florida or Spain :-)
If taking vitamins regularly was something that improved our health, we should be able to measure that. But as far as I know, we haven't been able to.
"Usage patterns, health, and nutritional status of long-term multiple dietary supplement users: a cross-sectional study"
It was conducted by researchers from the University of California (Berkeley)
You could argue that breathing more air improves heath ... because it works for people who are underwater.
On the one hand hes totally right.. on the other hand hes totally missing the point, completely obsessed with blatant self promotion. ugh.
Then we see Tony Robbins propping up Rays rep as a 'serious human being'.. omg, my arse hurts from laughing so much.
This and "W" {dubya} are my must sees for comedy movies of '09.
Hopefully not at our existing schools, which would bore them to tears.
Maybe he can make a machine that lives forever, but he can't make a human to live forever. There are things that god forced in this world, and it will continue regardless if you believe in god or not. And I think that god forced humans to die, and this won't change in the future.
I think well see all of those as possible answers, given the advance of medicine and engineering.
If by god you mean "stochastic calculus".. then yes, I do believe in god, and he has mysterious ways indeed :]
Well, advance of medicine and engineering?
Did medicine help prevent people die at age 5 or 6 yrs old? There is something called "fate", and I guess you don't believe in it too.
Don't take my God comments too much to heart - Id vigorously defend your right to believe in whatever you like.
And I am sure that you heard of kids who died at very young age]
You have a right to believe in God or not, or even make your "brain" as your own God, it's all up to you.
But it's NOT funny to make jokes about God, and I had to response to you, although I knew that it will lead to reduce my karma, but I had no choice anyway.