You conjecture that death might be preferable to decades of incarceration. Sure, if that's an accurate assessment of the options.
But Aaron was still months from being tried or (if found guilty) sentenced. Even being sentenced doesn't mean serving the sentence is a certainty, after potential appeals, suspensions, pardons.
We can see from Aaron's writings (including those long after the prosecution began) that he was endeavoring to "think better", to improve himself, and to "invent new options" rather than just accepting the tradeoffs presented to him.
The choice to exit the situation, by ending life itself, isn't quite consistent with those other expressed perceptions and preferences. (Perhaps those other expressions were themselves simply products of passing moods, or a calculated facade, but we have to assign them about as much credibility, as expressions of Aaron's rational thinking, as his suicide itself.)
Such inconsistency suggests to me that the suicide decision was the result of an irrational and possibly transient mood problem, and an erroneous assessment of likely future legal/incarceration outcomes.
(If some deep, emotional portion of the decisionmaking machinery goes wrong, and 'chooses' death, then subsequent painting-in of all the reasons that death is or might be a reasonable course can be an expression of choice-supportive biases. And we, as outsiders running little simulations of what we might do in similar situations, can suffer the same bias, along the lines of: "A smart guy killed himself, he must have had good reasons. I'll keep thinking until I find them.")
There could of course be other factors that outsiders don't know: other personal or health issues, things that made even the "beats this federal rap" future seem less appealing. But legal persecution and the potential for imprisonment aren't, before trial and given Aaron's other writings, a rational basis or sufficient explanation for early final exit. A recurrent or chronic mood problem is a sufficient explanation.