Comment by neya | Hacker News Reader

Comment by neya | Hacker News Reader

I am an hardcore Android fan. But this is too much of a stretch. I've been using Windows since Windows 95. I use OSX too, of course. And then Ubuntu too - 10.04 LTS, 12.04, and 12.10. As for smartphones - 4 HTC phones with Android 2.3+, an iPhone and a Nokia Lumia. But, even if today Google releases Android for the desktop, I wouldn't use it (as my main OS). Atleast not now.

There are somethings that are hard-coded within users like me. No matter what we do, we will go back to windows, no matter how bad it is - be it Vista or Longhorn or whatever. Because that's the influence of Windows. Bill gates made sure Windows and PC's are in harmony with each other right from the beginning. The number of applications, the vibrant developer community and the number of epic GAMES!

You may not notice this pattern within the US where you will encounter a lot of people on OSX. But the rest of the world, which is the majority, loves Windows. It's not going to be like one fine day someone comes in and says hey, you know what, Android's there for desktop, so you can stop using Windows. That will never happen. One main reason is the enormous developer community and applications available for Windows. Not to forget the fact that Windows is the #1 most pirated OS of all time ESPECIALLY in countries like China, India, etc. which is where the majority of the population lives (#1, #2 respectively). This means, if you take into account all the pirated copies too, the user base is enormous and it only keeps growing with each day. Because that was Bill Gates' vision and he has actually accomplished it. By no means I'm an MSFT 'fanboy'. This is just from what I know, what I observe around me, based on some analytical data derived from my business. In other words, this article is a fluff.

> The number of applications, the vibrant developer community and the number of epic GAMES!

All of these either have changed in recent years, or are in the process of changing. Steambox will potentially see the downfall of the Windows gaming platform - if developers switch gears to opengl en masse, in half a decade we will easily be able to emulate the 15 years of Windows monopoly under Wine, possibly even integrated with Steam by that point.

I don't think Microsoft has any developer cred anymore. Android and iOS are too big, the Windows Store is too hostile, and Visual Studio isn't the only option in town anymore. Mono is pretty mature, so all those C# apps (C# is a brilliant language, btw, one great thing coming out of MS there) can be ported. The Unity game engine is a pretty big deal nowadays, being cross platform and supporting multiple script languages including C#.

The fact that the Microsoft ecosystem and community was hostile to open source and code sharing basically meant that FOSS (and even OSX) could build up a backlog of shared base to constantly take advantage of, while Visual Studio and that entire ecosystem was always shackled to what Microsoft provided.

The reason Windows is everywhere is two fold - one, it is the default. Two, it is expected. If you got any other computer OS into Best Buy, it would still flounder next to #2, because Microsoft has created this culture of computers = Windows. I see college kids and teens with OSX laptops, not their parents. They still run Windows. Because they are used to it.

In a way though, because they are used to it, Microsoft is in many ways already toast. Because Windows 8 is too much a departure for that kind of person to upgrade to and adapt to. What is going to happen is that unless Windows 9 brings back the classic desktop as the default, most people will be sitting on 7 like we did XP for 6 - 8 years.

Strangely, the only even remotely comparable experience to Windows 7 out there that I can find is KDE. It doesn't come that way default, which is a great hampering, but the default KDE suite can be tweaked to behave like Windows 7 to some great detail. I don't imagine a FOSS software project getting into Best Buy corporate and seeing laptops with Kubuntu served to consumers, though.

The problem is that Android and iOS, while popular, are largely money losers for most game shops. Console games are still where the big money is for top tier game shops, and MS still does quite well there.

Now Steambox may provide some competition, but I think it will be more like Sony and Nintendo in that it'll just be another platform. No major studios are going to neglect DirectX and the XBox720 (or whatever it will be called).

The fact that the Microsoft ecosystem and community was hostile to open source and code sharing basically meant that FOSS (and even OSX) could build up a backlog of shared base to constantly take advantage of, while Visual Studio and that entire ecosystem was always shackled to what Microsoft provided.

I'm not sure that's true. I've used a lot of shared code developing on Windows. One big difference though is that I pay for the code, rather than it being open source. Control and component vendors are very common on Windows.

The problem with the Windows dev ecosystem is that it's more pragmatic. The Android dev ecosystem and (to a lesser extent) iOS dev ecosystem are more fanatical. This allows them to bootstrap new form factors before a user base shows up.

> Now Steambox may provide some competition, but I think it will be more like Sony and Nintendo in that it'll just be another platform. No major studios are going to neglect DirectX and the XBox720 (or whatever it will be called).

Valve will be debuting this thing at a loss to try to detract classic PC gamers off Windows so Microsoft can't do a hostile takeover with the Windows Store. Game engines are more and more being developed to support mobile and traditional profiles, so they write to opengl, not directX. Once you start using openGL, nothing is tying you to Windows anymore, and you start releasing your games everywhere. I fully expect initiatives like Shield, Ouya, and Steambox to take away huge chunks of the market from Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo.

> I'm not sure that's true. I've used a lot of shared code developing on Windows. One big difference though is that I pay for the code, rather than it being open source. Control and component vendors are very common on Windows.

And small games don't have the funds to try to buy their way into code bases. They look at their options and see webapps or mobile as a much lower barrier to entry and jump on that. The Windows dev community that emerged in the 90s is still the same group, and all new entries are moving elsewhere.

Game engines are more and more being developed to support mobile and traditional profiles, so they write to opengl, not directX.

Game engines have long supported OpenGL. Mobile profiles are now more common, but if your argument is that DirectX is no longer relevant because of OpenGL -- this arguably would have happened a long time ago. Game engines were probably some of the first to support the OpenGL (even before DX and D3D became relevant).

I fully expect initiatives like Shield, Ouya, and Steambox to take away huge chunks of the market from Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo.

Steambox stands a chance if they do exclusives on their platform of things like HalfLife and Portal.

Shield doesn't look particularly more inviting than the PSVita. I think the dedicated portable game device is probably dead.

Ouya -- breakout success for them would be getting 1% of the market. Which they may get. It'll be niche at best.

I will let you know right now what can totally change the tide in gaming... Oculus Rift (and VR headset in general). Seems easier to pull off then the MS Illumiroom and would provide a more immersive scenario. If a platform can pull this off at a reasonable pricepoint ($99/headset max) -- I predict they win.

> Game engines have long supported OpenGL. Mobile profiles are now more common, but if your argument is that DirectX is no longer relevant because of OpenGL -- this arguably would have happened a long time ago. Game engines were probably some of the first to support the OpenGL (even before DX and D3D became relevant).

Actually, no. The largest game engine of last generation was Unreal 3, which never had comprehensive and direct opengl support (I don't know how they hacked OSX in there) and supported the ps3 through the DRM library (handhelds were through GLES). The only U3 game ported to openGL was Dungeon Defenders for the recent Humble Bundle. If more games and engines were on opengl, porting to Linux would be a simple recompile a significant majority of the time, because they don't depend on win32 for the sake of the same cross platform behavior.

> Steambox stands a chance if they do exclusives on their platform of things like HalfLife and Portal.

They could just be the best value proposition. I don't think people will ever stop buying Xboxes, Playstations, or Wiifus since they always have first class exclusives. I just think that if the Steambox and steam sale system works, either the other platforms will have to dramatically cut prices to compete, or they will lose out on major sales. And a big difference is that Steam games work anywhere you can install Steam, and the platform is also a value proposition.

> Shield doesn't look particularly more inviting than the PSVita. I think the dedicated portable game device is probably dead.

In many ways, that is the beauty of Shield. It isn't a dedicated gaming device, it runs stock Android and has controller buttons built in. Sure, the platform isn't a great idea if you aren't going to game on it, but it can easily function as a general purpose tablet outside of gaming. I am certain one of the analog sticks on shield will behave like swiping for the purposes of app emulation. It would be nice for reading web pages. It also can act as a netflix machine, or any movie or audio player. PSVita doesn't have that luxury.

The other reason to put more faith in the Shield than Vita is that targeting Shield targets 70% of the phone market and 30% of the tablet market. It targets a platform that will continue to grow, and you release your game not as an in-store one time purchase physical flash memory card but off the Play Store and as such will be a continuous source of revenue (despite Play games selling for significantly less than console counterparts, but I imagine dedicated Android gaming platform owners will buy games).

> Ouya -- breakout success for them would be getting 1% of the market. Which they may get. It'll be niche at best.

They won't even get that. The Ouya succeeds not if they move a lot of units but if games developed for Android start supporting hardware controllers. As soon as that happens, the Ouya isn't niche at all, and games that target Android and work on it just make it a positive value proposition to complement other Android devices you already have. It runs reskinned Android though, so I don't know if it as capable as a Shield as a general media device.

> I will let you know right now what can totally change the tide in gaming... Oculus Rift (and VR headset in general). Seems easier to pull off then the MS Illumiroom and would provide a more immersive scenario. If a platform can pull this off at a reasonable price point ($99/headset max) -- I predict they win.

I'd like to see the OR work out too, but I think the market for VR headsets isn't that big. It is comparable to 3d tvs, albeit less gimmicky in most ways. I don't see myself going out of my way to stick on a helmet to play Doom 3. Then again, I didn't like the ideas behind motion controllers either, so I'm probably just outside that demographic. I like moving pictures with some buttons to press to make things happen.

China may love windows, but they love ipads more. Tablet sales are booming and pc sales are falling.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/28/us-china-tablet-ma...

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/08/31/apac_pc_sales_declin...

A lot of Chinese people buy Apple products just to show them off. It's quite common there to buy a Mac and install Windows on it, because they don't like OS X.

From what I've heard, the main issue with OS X is with Chinese input. MS seems to do a much better job there.

I haven't tried writing in Chinese in a Mac though, so I can't say much there. But on Windows it works quite nicely (from the point of view of a foreigner trying to learn the language).

> From what I've heard, the main issue with OS X is with Chinese input. MS seems to do a much better job there.

I've never heard of this before. Pinyin input is pretty straightforward, and it works fine on OS X as far as I know. Is the predictive engine worse or something?

Guess so. But I haven't tried it. I'll ask around.

It is somewhat common everywhere to see people buying a Mac and installing Windows. Not because they don't like OSX but because they need certain Windows only apps.

Unlike of course you have some evidence of China being an outlier. Which of course you don't.

> It is somewhat common everywhere to see people buying a Mac and installing Windows. Not because they don't like OSX but because they need certain Windows only apps.

Do you have any evidence for either of these claims? Of course you don't.

> Unlike of course you have some evidence of China being an outlier. Which of course you don't.

Protip: next time, don't be such an asshole if you don't have the knowledge to back it up.

> In China, most of the Apple user will be installing Windows OS to their Mac machines. This is due to some major restrictions of using non IE browser. China has dramatically different browser usage patterns than developed countries. Most commonly used Chinese websites have been constructed and tested to work with Microsoft’s Internet Explorer only, without consideration of other web standard, non-IE browsers (Firefox, Safari, Chrome), or non-Windows platforms. A lot of Chinese websites will not shown and worked properly in Safari or Firefox browser. One good example is the support of e-banking , which greatly tied-up with the booming e-commerce in China. Almost all Chinese banks accepted only transactions via Internet Explorer, any type of security packet go along will works just on Windows. Given that IE has stopped Mac development for years now, new Chinese user have to look back at Windows when they get started with Mac.[0]

0: http://micgadget.com/15236/apples-latest-macbook-air-set-to-...

From my experience, it's because of this. These publications want pageviews, they'll write anything they want to get it.

But here's a more logical reason based on my experience traveling to these countries - In every home, they buy a PC once in every ~3-5 years. Now, the iPads have started to become really common, so everyone wants one too. So, you see a rise in the sales of the iPads. The decline is because the PC you bought 5 years ago (For. ex Core 2 Duo) is still as good and supports a lot of applications. So these users don't have this need to upgrade to a newer system - Because they can already multi-task pretty well.

One thing you must understand is that PC's are not mobile phones or tablets where they get outdated very fast - like less than a year or so. Whereas, the PC's utility and already excellent overshoots anything else and hence doesn't need an upgrade every year, atleast not for the average consumer. Also, the rise in the sales of the iPads and the decline in the sales of the PC does NOT necessarily mean that the usage of the PC is declining too. What I mean is that, in this era, almost every house has a PC. But tablets are on the rise. But that doesn't mean people are ditching their PC's to buy the tablets, it simply means they just buy the tablets in addition to their existing PC's. Can you show me one citation that says users are selling their PC's to buy a new tablet? And there lies your answer.

Why would people use PC'S when they can hook a keyboard to their ipad and get the same functionality?

Simple - For a PC, the keyboard is something that is a part of the PC itself. For an iPad, it becomes an accessory and also most probably expensive (a good one). Hence it's not a popular option.

2)The actual applications themselves. Most of the PC users are also developers. So let's say I have to use WAMP to install Wordpress or Drupal on localhost. This becomes a nightmare on an iPad, if not almost impossible.

3)The range of applications for PRODUCERS (content producers). Content is King. And content producers are king-makers. So, tell me how can I do something that I can do with Photoshop (advanced editing, etc.), illustrator, 3d Studio max, etc.

4) Performance - a PC is also a DIY machine. If I want more performance, I add more RAM. If I want to do graphics n stuff, I add a high-performance graphics adapter, If I want more space, I add a 2TB hard-disk. Tell me how will you achieve ANY of these with an iPad. The last time I heard, you couldn't even change the battery, unless you were a service technician of some sort.

Take technical people or power users out of the equation, as they are not the masses that use PC's. What is left is social media, e-mail, chat, browsing, games, and office productivity. If you really think people will keep buying PC's to do that stuff when an ipad is better at most of them, I have a bridge to sell you :)

Especially in markets like china I cannot see people investing in a PC when it costs more than a tablet and basically does the same things.

This is why laptops trounce desktops in sales. People don't want DIY, they don't want high-powered hardware. They want to get basic stuff done. If a tablet does that, that's good enough.

You have a valid point there, my friend :) But, for office, I personally don't use my iPad because of the touch screen usability, especially when it comes to copying and pasting stuff. I (personally) feel I'm more productive on a PC than on an iPad.

But actually, I'm sorry, by PC I meant both the Laptops and the Desktops combined only. No way I'm arguing in favor of just desktops alone...Laptops vs Desktops is a separate argument that I'll save for the rainy day ;)

Larger screens. That is, until 30" tablets are here.

you must be joking ? your saying the avg chinese love paying 4000 yuan for an ipad than to pirate a windows copy (which is quite prevalent there) for free ?

Microsoft doesn't sell desktops, so it doesn't care what brand of hardware Windows is running on.

I've heard the games argument over and over, as if it's true for everyone. I'm a 35 year old male, and I could care less about games. I want a decent game, I'll pull out my phone and download something for a buck or free. If I want a better experience, I suppose I'd buy a console and then have the ability to rent from GameFly. (back when I had a Wii, I thought it was pretty cool to download old games from the 80's, I'll admit) There's a subset of the market: those who want a better gaming experience due to better hardware than a console provides and are willing to drop $60 a pop for the privilege. That may be you, but don't extrapolate to the population. There's a ton of people who don't have time or interest for something more than Angry Birds. I've heard too many discussions about Windows that indicate that games is the only real compelling advantage, and if that's true, that means a large portion of the market is ambivalent.

You sir, are the minority (with all due respect). The rest of the population is crazy about games. That's why all top dev's develop games for windows first (forget the consoles) and then the tablets. Because, they are a bigger audience.

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