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Comment by josh2600 | Hacker News Reader

I'm intrigued by Instacart. Part of me realizes that Webvan had it right all those years ago, and another part of me thinks this model can't scale.

The best ideas are the ones that teeter on the the edge of improbability. Watching the success (or failure) of this company is like watching NASCAR. Keep making those left turns until something blows up or you win the Cup.

Win or Lose, I'm glad someone is trying this idea. The Instacart folks just might have enough hustle to pull this off.

Wishing you folks lots of luck!

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Grocery delivery makes a lot of sense in a lot of places (it's been going on in NYC forever).

What didn't make sense was massive capital investment to build their own distribution centers (billions) and expanding into markets where everyone who could afford non-food-stamp food had cars (Atlanta, Texas).

I loved WebVan in the bay area. In the Bay, the capital-intensive model was fine, although they could have bootstrapped by having kids run into Safeway stores as customers, which is what Instacart, Tesco, Safeway Delivery, etc. do now.

I've always wondered, what happened to that $1 BILLION of infrastructure that Webvan setup?

It's right next to Cuil's infrastructure.

Cuil's infrastructure was across the aisle from my cage :)

Lol! That's awesome.

I always wonder about that company. I saw the ex-CEO speak at Failcon and I'm continually reminded of the idea that companies die not because of bad product or losing one particular deal, but, rather, because the owners decided to give up.

To my mind, Cuil could've stayed afloat, but no one wanted it to. It was easier to sweep that giant pile of FUBAR under the rug, but, in retrospect, they would've still likely been a large company, albeit not Google size, but large nonetheless.

Yeah, I think there's a conflict between opportunity costs and fighting to the absolute end.

There's plenty of value locked up in the company which could have done other things. If it were startup nuclear winter and they had no other options, they might have made something successful out of it. Staying may not have been the economically rational choice for them, but if there were different economics, or non-economic factors (pride, unwillingness to fail, etc.), they might have had a better outcome.

And there's always uncertainty in estimating -- usually in underestimating how big a success something could be if successful -- so "blindly" continuing could the EV maximizing choice, too.

"To my mind, Cuil could've stayed afloat, but no one wanted it to. It was easier to sweep that giant pile of FUBAR under the rug, but, in retrospect, they would've still likely been a large company, albeit not Google size, but large nonetheless."

Care to elaborate why (you believe they'd become a large company)?

Ask.com and the fact that their epic fail probably gave them great SEO :).

In all honesty, I think that a 100M investment would've been enough of a runway to right the ship IF anyone could've stomached it after the horrific launch. Cuil could've pivot'ed their algorithm or their model and been a relatively large search engine (1% of the market is ~$1.5B).

Success, in all things, is relative. Cuil could've been the fifth biggest search engine on Earth and STILL have made a ton of money.

I've heard, anecdotally, that Safeway acquired the vans for their own delivery service.

another part of me thinks this model can't scale.

It scales just fine if you are in tightly laid out cities. Like in the UK or NY: http://www.peapod.com/

We have Peapod (affiliated with the local supermarket chain Stop & Shop) deliveries here in Connecticut out in the far suburbs and it works just fine. Place your order online with prices that match the store and have the same weekly deals.

Minimum order is $60 and the delivery fee is $10 although you get discounts for filling in empty timeline spots or booking in advance. It's not same day but you can get very early next day. It's a real lifesaver if you can't get out of the house for some reason, like kids or disability.

If they can add a TJ's near me (SFBay but not PA/MV), I'll use this weekly. With 3 kids and both employed, my wife and I have difficulty finding time to shop other than the weekends.

Features I'd really like:

1) Ability to create a persistent shopping list (see specialtys.com and their "fav" reorder).

2) Amazon-style "people who bought this bought/browsed XYZ also".

Great work, guys. Can't wait for you to expand to my neck of the woods.

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