Desktop sw companies are about to discover a variant of Wilde's remark: the only thing worse than being pirated is not being pirated.
I'm guessing you've probably never sent a greeting card with a Strawberry Shortcake on it. The company that makes those, American Greetings, sold $1.5 billion dollars worth of product last year. Much of it was paper, although they also have an online division which charges a lot of people a lot of money to send birthday cards. (I only know this because my mom says she pays $50 a year for the animated flash cards she mails me all the time.)
What relevance does this have for desktop software? Simple: it should remind you that there is an entire universe of users out there who do not have Paul Graham's problems. Many of these users have problems which can be solved best by desktop software. Those users will keep desktop software companies in business for a while. (Did I mention one point five billion dollars of paper greeting cards? And this is HOW many years after email?)
As long as I'm on the subject, ubiquitous net connectivity gives us desktop developers some interesting options against piracy. One is moving value from the client to the server. I do it a little these days (for non-piracy reasons), and if I can figure it out I'm sure the rest of the industry can.
You can't pirate a desktop app that requires connecting to a server to function (+) any more than you can pirate Basecamp by downloading Firefox.
+ Edit for clarity: I don't mean in the sense of "phone home", I mean in the sense of "value is provided by code or data which only exists on the server". Think WoW: without connectivity its the world's most expensively engineered paperweight.
That's why the adapted Wilde quote applies. I didn't say desktop sw will instantly disappear, just inexorably.
I have six online competitors to my desktop application that I know about. They're made by wonderful people. Some of them are even free.
Many of them show ads for my product and they're, empirically, the best places for me to put ads.
(Google will helpfully let you see what websites are making you money. Other AdWords users should really get to be friends with the Placement Report. Fascinating stuff there. Tangent over.)
Given the choice, today, between a no-install, free online application which is staring them in the face and clicking to another website, downloading something, installing it, running it, playing around, clicking purchase, reaching for the credit card, typing in their details, and inputing a license key, a few hundred people have said "Oh, easy -- I want the downloaded one."
Why is that? There are a couple of reasons (which you would be intensely bored about because you've presumably never had to create bingo cards for 25 people), but it boils down to "The experience of using the desktop application sucks a lot less than the experience of using the web application, for at least some users". They get something out of the desktop version that they couldn't get from the web version, and voted with their wallet.
That's just the view from my little, teeny wedge of the economy. Are all similar wedges going to inexorably vanish? Probably, if you come at it from the assumption that everyone will eventually come to work like you. To misquote another Englishman: "There are more needs in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are answerable by the types of products you yourself buy."
I bet a fair share of desktop software persists soley because of how awkward it is to print from the browser. (The reason no one realizes that the URL, page number, and timestamp can be removed is entirely because of the unnecessary complexity of the UI.)
If Mozilla, Google, or Apple made their printing interface dramatically better (which would be synonymous with making it dramatically simpler) they might be able to win a surprising number of IE users. The correlation between technical proficiency and a penchant for hardcopies seems roughly inversely proportional. While, for instance, my parents don't see much additional value in using Chrome over IE for browsing, they'd probably use it exclusively if it made printing significantly more comfortable.
See? One step ahead!
I think of the desktop as something that got put on top of Unix in OSX, and terminal windows as holes in it.
Yes! I've been saying "put a hole in your GUI and get back to basics" for a decade now to quizzical looks. Sweet validation.
When I need commercial software, I either pay the money for it or I do without. There are great options for doing without these days: much of what you really need is OSS, and if you absolutely have to have something, well, you're a programmer and gcc is free last time I checked. Get writing, chum.
If you're thinking "But it would take me, like, a thousand man-years to make something as good as Photoshop", well, there is always the "Sell your labor to someone, use it to buy the ridiculously-less-expensive-than-one-thousand-man-years product" option.
I use approximately 90% Open Source software, and the remainder is bought and paid for (though often quite old...the last Microsoft Office version I bought was Office '97, though I haven't had a call to use Office in 5 years, at least). I also buy the cheapest version of stuff. Like I have Vista Home Basic on my dual booting PC, since I spend maybe one afternoon per week in Windows, and never doing anything complicated.
So, no. I don't use pirated software. Even when I worked in an office that had full MSDN subscriptions for everyone, I used almost no proprietary software anyway, so I'm certainly not going out of my way to dig up pirated copies of the stuff. My workflow is simply built around Open Source tools.
I just cannot justify buying one of these if I am only going to use it to modify a few files and then leave it on the shelf for 10 months. If I there was a pay-per-use or pay-per-day, then that might be a different story.
You are literally the first consultant I have ever heard in my life who would mention a hundred dollars as if it were a lot of money.
Egads, man, you're a 1st world businessman, not a starving peasant in Africa. If it saves you an hour once a year it should be on the CC without you batting an eye. That's an extra hour of billable time and/or the prospect of more work because you're more efficient than the next guy, right?
Well, anyway, as much as I understand him, myself I still don't work with pirated software. Usually that means I search for OpenSource alternatives and learn to use those.
His profile says he is a consultant, so I sort of assumed that his startup was run concurrently. Thus, he's perfectly capable of selling the time he saves by using productivity-enhancing software, which makes the "It costs money!" objection rather unpersuasive to me.
Its not like I'm telling him rent, ramen, productivity software: pick any two. (Although I would say it.)
I don't think it's ok anyway to use pirated software. But I don't care that much that it would for example stop me from working with someone who does.
Sorry, I have not updated my profile in a long time. I used to be an environmental consultant, but am now a web-start up. So, take that for what you will.
Another thing I try and do is support smaller projects rather than blindly purchasing large corporations' software simply because someone has sent me a file in that format. Happily, open source and free software (google docs, open office, Gimp) is getting better by the minute and is replacing proprietary stuff (office, photoshop etc.)
Cheers,
JB
1) Customers hate buying things multiple times, particularly in my niche.
2) Authorizing transactions frequently is friction. I hate friction.
3) I'd rather charge $30 than $5 because $30 communicates that the product is worth $30 and $5 communicates that the product is not worth your time.
4) If I charged $5 it would be unprofitable for me to advertise and Paypal would make much more than ~4% of my sales.
5) I strongly suspect that average lifetime revenue per user would be much lower if I charged per-use as opposed to per-lifetime. If a customer wants to use my software to do an activity tomorrow, and I told her "Its going to cost you money just for tomorrow", she might decide otherwise. If I tell her "Its going to cost you money, BUT you'll be able to do it for the rest of your life for free", then she (empirically) frequently decides to purchase for me.
We'd probably all agree that copyright law is a terrible mess. Still, I don't think that justifies deciding that you get to take what you want and then pay if you like the license terms.
#include "copying-vs-stealing-permathread.h"Use OSS for as much as possible!
When I was cleaning out the old apartment, I found several treasure troves of software and licenses. It was depressing to stumble upon at least a quarter-million dollars (unadjusted for inflation) -- embodied in small stacks of shrinkwrapped paper and enormous piles of obsolete media.
My OS X came from the Bay. I will buy a copy of Snow Leopard eventually.
I use Linux now.
1. OSX comes free with every mac.
2. Textmate is the best, and it's very cheap.
3. Omnigraffle is worth every penny.
For just about everything else you could possibly need, open source has a category killer.
1. Not everyone uses a mac (and OSX is hardly free).
2. Not everyone uses Textmate (and very cheap is relative).
3. What the hell is Omnigraffle?
Point being, not everyone uses the same set of software as you...or maybe it's just late and I'm grumpy :)
2. vim or emacs is the best, and it's very free.
3. There is no 3.
FTFY
Why do I even care about Microsoft software? Because our customers do.
I also believe Adobe owes me Photoshop, a letter with apologies plus one of their programmers should become my personal bitch for a week - for all the damage they've done to me with flash and acrobat reader. Sadly, we bought a copy of CS3, because my partners didn't feel this way.
* Textmate
* VMWare Fusion
* OmniGraffle
* Microsoft Office
* SciTools Understand
* IDA Pro
* Visual Hub
* Little Snitch
* Windows XP
* ScreenFlow