Systemic traffic jams caused by small groups of drivers, study says
mercurynews.com
mercurynews.com
"John Goodwin, a spokesman for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the region's transportation planning agency, says the best way to spread out traffic coming from these neighborhoods is to install metering lights at their freeway onramps, which spaces out the traffic to help both those drivers and everyone else get to their destinations quicker. Though many important Bay Area freeways already have metering lights, such as Interstate 280 in the South Bay and Interstate 680 in the East Bay, others don't."
The Twin Cities metropolitan area, where I live, was the first place in the United States to gain special federal permission to put on-ramp metered signal lights on federal Interstate Highways used heavily by commuters. They empirically help a lot in smoothing traffic. One reason we know that is that for a while a doofus state legislator shut down the freeway metered ramp program, until traffic here became so unbearable that the meters were put back in use. I have heard from friends who travel here from other parts of the country that the ramp meters (implemented as red-yellow-green traffic signals just before a car gets onto the freeway) are confusing to people who usually drive where on-ramps are just unimpeded paths onto the freeway. But they definitely speed up traffic.
The Twin Cities has one federal highway, Interstate 394, with a pair of reversible lanes, usually eastbound (into Minneapolis from the suburbs where I live) in the morning, and westbound (out of the city into the suburbs) in the evenings. That helps with rush hour commuter traffic, except that a lot of cars are eastbound for evening appointments even as commuters are leaving the city, so the reversal of lanes still leaves the regular, nonreversible lanes badly congested each evening. I wonder if a traffic study like the one reported in the interesting article submitted here could identify how to smooth out the traffic problems we still have here.
In the South Bay Area, there is also usually a major shortage of space to queue behind a traffic meter or to allow for acceleration after a meter. CalTrans knows how to properly design freeways, they do it in Southern California, but up here, they don't show it.
But, it could also be a problem with the algorithm they use. The more simple algorithms generally don't take queue length into account, but ALINEA/HERO, which we use in Victoria has queue control.
This is exactly their intention, and it's exactly what it does in the Minneapolis area -- it adds a natural saturation point to every onramp, eventually leading to lots of traffic simply using surface roads.
If it was anonymized, they could in theory release the data, right? However the article states "all the data gathered in the study will be kept confidential". Don't these 2 statements contradict each other? Why would they need to keep anonymous data confidential?
Abstract. Many applications benefit from user location data, but lo- cation data raises privacy concerns. Anonymization can protect privacy, but identities can sometimes be inferred from supposedly anonymous data. This paper studies a new attack on the anonymity of location data. We show that if the approximate locations of an individual’s home and workplace can both be deduced from a location trace, then the median size of the individual’s anonymity set in the U.S. working population is 1, 21 and 34,980, for locations known at the granularity of a census block, census track and county respectively. The location data of people who live and work in different regions can be re-identified even more easily. Our results show that the threat of re-identification for location data is much greater when the individual’s home and work locations can both be deduced from the data. To preserve anonymity, we offer guidance for obfuscating location traces before they are disclosed.
If additional journeys are also linked to the same phone identifying individuals can get even easier.
At the very least, if data cannot be made anonymous, and can so easily be associated to persons, then this is an argument that they should have never collected it without my consent in the first place. This would be an invasion of my privacy.
Would you be ok with someone relating an "anonymized" database of fingerprints? Of sequenced human genomes? Of credit card transactions? Anonymization is tricky.
I think their hearts were in the right place, but it turned out, even though AOL had no interest in attaching real names, that there were enough artifacts in there that other people could. Especially if it spilled hot soup on AOL.
See other's comments about de-anon.
I wonder how many of these "anonymous" drivers knew that their data was being used this way and would consent to doing so if they knew it.
EDIT: Enh? Why the downvotes? Please explain if you are going to do so.
Given that perspective, metering lights to reduce density seem like exactly the right solution.
He calculated the risk of changing lanes on a highway and estimated how much people valued their lives in dollars (usually fractions thereof) based on this one criteria.
He drove vehicles into lakes to study the escape from such a vehicle.
He tracked the eyes of truckers and found that their eyes would fall to the front of the hood and dart up a few times about 30-45s before they fell asleep and wrecked.
Another guy tried to make a talking highway by varying the distance of groves and marks on the road.
Just thought some might find this stuff interesting or amusing.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musical_road#Civic_Musical_Road
Metering lights have their use but are limited in how long they can hold up a car whereas if I am at home or work its no problem to adjust my schedule +/- 10 minutes or more to avoid a jam. As more people signed up for such a site it would also become more efficient since it could take into account where and when people actually want to go in its planning calcs.
This works ok if you're interested in waiting until after traffic, and not "beating" traffic. In my situation, under x minutes meant leaving at 5:30am or after 9;30am, and going home before 3:00pm or after 7:00pm, so that was fine. YMMV.
Google Now is somewhere close to this, but I've found it finnicky. Maybe because of my more flexible schedule was throwing off its ability to predict my commutes. I would have preferred something more explicit for work hours, than it guessing based on my GPS'd habits.
The system actually requires itself to be ethical. The ability to make things better for the paying users is dependant on the system having a lot of free users. Those free users have to be getting some utility out of the site, otherwise they won't use it. And without large numbers of free users, the paying services can't be offered!
Consider a two-lane highway that splits into two directions, a very popular direction and an unpopular direction. Inevitably, we will see a group of people who will wait to the last second to cut into the popular lane. These late-comers cause two problems: 1) people to hit the brakes who get cut off in the popular lane, and 2) people to hit the brakes in the unpopular lane who are forced to slow down to allow the selfish drivers to merge.
When I take the generous approach and wait in line, I hate people who cut in. On the other hand, I find myself clever for cutting in at the last second and saving time when I take that approach. I'm still not sure which approach is 'right'. All I know is that the latter will increase overall delays while doing the former will have little to no impact on overall delays but a major impact on my own.
Traffic is a pretty interesting subject.
If you have a circumstance where 2 lanes are merging into 1 lane, merge as late as possible. It sounds counterproductive, but it's actually best for traffic as a whole.
See http://trafficwaves.org/seatraf.html and the HN discussion at http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=785259 . http://drmomentum.com/aces/archives/003800.html also has a number of nice links.
In gbadman's example one lane (let's say the right hand lane) goes to a road that does not back up, whereas the left hand lane goes to a road that will back up through the interchange. In this situation, you have a left lane congested with people waiting to go on the busy road, and a right lane that should be almost free flowing. By most understandings (including the execellent book, Traffic) people wanting to go to the busy road should wait in line in the left lane, allowing people going to the less busy road to pass freely. However, many drivers will stay in the right lane until the very last minute, then attempt to move into the left lane before the right lane splits off, backing up both lanes.
I think the lane split is the better example of the prisoner's dilemma. As others have mentioned that in the two-lane merge situation the global optimum is the selfish approach.
I think it's important to stress the caveats of that recommendation.
It applies to heavy, congested (as opposed to flowing or merely partially congested) traffic with a merge that is orderly, zipper-like.
So, don't just merge as late as possible. Rather, when faced with heavy, congested traffic perform an orderly merge, as late as possible.
As i mentioned in some other comment, self-driving cars taht you "hail" are the best compromise between public transport and private transport.
I can sort of see his point, but the downside to me seems to be that if you wait until the very end, and don't get to merge in cleanly, you have to slam on the brakes, and nothing kills traffic like someone having to merge in from a complete stop. So my tentative position is that it would be best if everyone merged exactly as soon as they could do so without significantly slowing down (speeding up to merge seems like it would be a good thing, in comparison?). But good luck with that, heh.
After reading Traffic, I always merge at the last minute (and I have never had to "slam the brakes" from this behavior)
I'm asking in all seriousness, I have no idea what sort of traffic you are driving in.
Two places that I can think of this being brutal are taking Decarie Blvd exit from Decarie North and taking the 20W exit off of the 13S. I'm sure that are some other pretty good examples out there.
1: http://www.tomtom.com/lib/doc/congestionindex/2012-1003-TomT...
Heh, years ago I wrote a comment here about a situation like that, but with three lanes (and one more for the exit), that I suffered.
Then, as if they were reading, in a few weeks the output was changed as I wanted: two lanes in each direction. The results were excellent, no more jams in that exit.
http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121220/srep01001/full/srep01...
Again - patterns persisted during both the last two booms and busts.
It is more than just a "small group of drivers".
I guess that's not really the thing if one works in the valley with a huge salary...
Surely the geek bus would be a cool place to be though?
THe best solution isn't better public transport, but self driving cars that you can get ondemand (but don't own).
I disagree.
- If public transport arrives and departs often enough, you don't have to plan your life around the transport.
- If the public transport network is large enough, you can eliminate the "last mile" problem, either by making it short enough to walk quickly or by connecting backbones to local distribution. Classic example, train + bus.
Of course the Bay Area has nothing close to this kind of network, but you said "the best solution", and I'm pretty convinced an idealized public transport system is much better than driverless cars. Superior passenger density, superior fuel efficiency, superior materials usage, etc.
Another difference is that public transport is a known working solution which has been implemented with great success in many cities since the 19th century. While driverless cars is something we just now is getting the technology to build so it is untested.
Take a look at the picture here[1].
[1] http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8456/7999510360_8e46299621_b.j...
Take a look at http://carfree.com/ for a good overview of what could be done with public transport, as well as all of the unseen issues with car use.
Here in europe we just walk the last mile ;) (although it's never as much as a mile.)
Like all these things it's about urban planning.
And in Sweden this poor urban planning was basically caused by people thinking public transport was uncool.
A groundbreaking study ... has pinpointed a small group of
drivers making Bay Area freeways miserable for the rest of
us...
You mean the other drivers, incremental vehicles coming from other sources, are simply not contributing to traffic misery? Who knew?! At least the solution is both obvious and simple: the "small group of drivers" should clearly be "gotten rid of" so the misery of the virtuous is removed. Line 'em up against the wall... ...they come from a few outlying neighborhoods and travel
long distances together in the same direction like schools
of fish -- clogging up not only the roads they drive on,
but also everyone else's.
You mean, they're "everyone else's" roads, and these cheeky interlopers are taking what rightfully belongs (only) to "everyone else"? And the other commuter vehicles are not traveling together "like schools of fish"?Why do the (government) planning departments bear NO responsibility for the results of _their_ decisions? Specifically, they have the final say regarding where houses, apartments, roads, shopping centers, ad infinitum, are built. Yet the ultimate fault is with people who simply chose to live in certain locations, rather than bad capacity planning prior to their homes being approved to be built?
One if the consequences is that on long stretches of road, cars that are very slightly quicker catch up with others. Then, because there's safety in numbers, and because other cars normalise speed through a kind of meaning speed check, clusters form. Overtaking is tantamount to breaking the law, though some attempt to creep by, leading to reduced distance between vehicles, and increased stress for drivers due to reduced reaction time.
Under these kind of circumstances, a strong argument could be made for driverless cars, if only to avoid the increased potential for collision due to driver error. And it demonstrates for one embedded in the packs that form, the kind of experience that we can expect.
I asked my aunt, who is a police officer, about this, and she said in general the police try and drive slowly (well below the speed limit) on the motorways to prevent this phenomenon from occurring. I wonder whether the guy I saw was doing it deliberately or had just forgotten..
(http://green.autoblog.com/2012/09/18/volvo-finishes-satre-pr...)
(http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-18248841)
It's an interesting idea, even though not as advanced as Google's car.
I'd like to see results of testing, especially for the standing wave phenomenon, but also how a truck driver copes with driving "a vehicle" that is many times longer than what they're used to driving.
They can be used to slow down cars heading into a traffic jam to reduce the arrival rate so the traffic jam can dissolve. Roads with a lower speed limit also fit more cars (need less safety distance) - driving slower means less traffic, so traffic jams can be avoided by reducing the speed limit.
These systems are very wide spread in Germany, covering most Autobahns around major cities.
See: http://www.ted.com/talks/jonas_eliasson_how_to_solve_traffic... You don't need anywhere 500$, most likely 2-5$ toll is good enough.
Also, it could be that there are people who don't normally work on Monday, which is actually fairly common in many service industries. Many restaurants are often closed on Mondays, for example.
Sounds like what they need is a train, tram or bus.
If SMART ever comes into any kind of decent service it should relieve a significant demand among north bay-to-sf weekday commuters. Note, however, that SMART service to Larkspur Ferry is "planned" and "phase 2" which means probably not in my lifetime.
``... not just a scientific study.'' Reinforce engineering v. science stereotypes much?
Isn't it sad how pefectly fine we're with hauling 2000+ lbs of hardware just to get 150 lbs of flesh from point A to point B in the morning and back in the afternoon.
A driverless car is a taxi that's cheap and effective. You don't have to park it, you don't have to figure out the route. You just hail one, get in and type in the destination. Its sane public transport.
Not controlling the destination usually matters more since that means you may have to change train or bus several times.
Companies should get tax breaks for randomizing the start time of their workdays.
Instead, they come from a few outlying neighborhoods and travel long distances together in the same direction like schools of fish -- clogging up not only the roads they drive on, but also everyone else's.
The notion that they are to blame is asinine. A highway is being utilized beyond capacity, but picking out any group on the highway adds dramatic narrative yet little insight. The suggestion that you remove "just 1%" is surprisingly naive as well, reminding me a bit of this Onion piece - http://www.theonion.com/articles/report-98-percent-of-us-com...
If the highway had less utilization, it would cause many who use mass transit (like light rail) to choose the highway. Rinse repeat. It is how highways in virtually every metropolitan area eventually reach a point of saturation, that new point becoming the natural balance.
No traffic is more natural, per se, than any other traffic. Again you've repeated the claim that you can single out users and attribute, essentially, blame.
This study is most certainly bunk. Someone thought it would be novel to try the sort of traffic analysis that every single traffic department in the world does, and of course they're going to try to discern some profound finding, like "lots of people come from lots of people to hit the city core at 8:30am".
Where did I claim that? You seem to be missing something, somewhere.
The gist of the article is that large bunches/waves/schools of traffic travel in from outlying suburbs. I imagine that where that pack travels, jams ensue, and anything that you can do to smooth out that peak will help traffic flow more smoothly.
And they're using cell phone signals/GPS to track drivers down to the individual level. Pretty sure not many traffic departments do that sort of analysis, even if you type it in italics. Mostly it's just pressure sensors to measure average flow of particular roads.
So these people will either have to move, or find a different job. That seems like a somewhat extreme outcome.
Offering attractive alternatives to commuting by car might be a better way to reduce congestion on the roads.
I clearly indicated the issue with the article. If there are 50,001 people at a 50,000 person stadium, you can't point to one guy and say he is the reason it is over capacity. Further, there is no one who doesn't understand that less drivers on the highway = a faster commute. But therein lies the classic unintended consequence: Whatever you do to improve the commute leads to more traffic. Twin that highway and you'll see a massive boom in suburban building, for instance.
Or we can select 1% of the drivers on the highway, call them the problem, and call it a day.
All of those things apparently contribute to traffic more than people who travel in random directions at random times.
Also, it means that it is (potentially) more of a fixable problem. If you can target those specific sources and destinations of problem drivers, you can try to offer them alternatives. Even if they are replaced by other drivers, many of those other drivers may behave more randomly, and the roads will have better utilization.
The issue revealed here is that even a small number of unskilled drivers can do terrible things to the flow of traffic on busy roads. In other words, crowded roads have a very low tolerance for bad drivers.
Since the number of disruptively bad drivers is so remarkably low, and their negative effect is so stratospherically high, a program designed to improve their skills could save astonishing sums of time and money.
So it's not about "calling them the problem and calling it a day." It's about actually fixing the problem. And you don't need to single people out to do this. Rather, you set the bar for licensing at a level that they'll need to do additional work to cross. Given how few of them there are, this can be done with no disruption to 99% of the drivers on the road, and major benefit to 100% of them.
These commuters aren't necessarily slow or bad drivers.
Instead, they come from a few outlying neighborhoods and
travel long distances together in the same direction like
schools of fish -- clogging up not only the roads they
drive on, but also everyone else's.Proximity calculations, leading vehicle frequency, trailing vehicle average speed, etc., using existing technology already in place that can be leveraged and innovated on to accurately determine culprits.