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>As it has been historically, this will almost certainly be due to a combination of a losing war, the rapid economic decline of national economies during a losing war, and finally terrible civil unrest and something like revolution.

Not trying to be argumentative, but what historical hegemonies do you have in mind that have crumbled like this?

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I'm specifically thinking of the downfall of the Russian old order as Russia was losing the Great War, and the general upheaval of aristocracies on the losing side of that war. The earlier defeat in the Russo-Japanese war also precipitated revolt, so perhaps one can look to unrest following a similar event in the future to predict when greater change may be on the horizon.

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