Does this align with what Zitron was complaining about? Or is it a broken-clock-right-twice-a-day thing? neutral question.
The world has standardised methods of accounting. Not only do Anthropic and OpenAI avoid using those methods, they both use the same phrase “annualised revenues” to describe two radically different accounting processes.
They’re both also leaking those annualised numbers slowly to the press at irregular intervals, which hints that they’re disclosing new numbers in the days after a big sale lands. So you see “$30bn annualised” because they managed to land a $1bn contract the week before, bumping the annualised figure up by $12bn compared to the start of the previous month, and the end of the next.
He's made dozens of predictions that were just wrong.
>For example, when Timothy B. Lee looked at a spreadsheet that Zitron used to create a projection of Anthropic's revenue, he found
>He doesn't count February 1-10, counts March 1-10 twice, counts August 21-October 21 as one month instead of two, and doesn't count October 21-November 1. [another commenter notes that his spreadsheet also contains February 30] ... Ed claims he tried to compute Anthropic's revenue for 2025 and came up with $3.6 billion, suggesting some funny business [but the numbers work out once you fix the errors]
from the above link. Personally I agree it's a bubble and there will likely be some sort of crash. But Ed is way to pessimistic on the underlying technology.
And bubbles and crashes are kind of inevitable with any hot new tech given human nature trying to pile in and get rich quick. It's a bit like prediting it'll rain one day.
He's anti-tech, anti-AI, incredibly biased, and just honestly full of bile.
And yes, I'm saying his data is wrong, his interpretation of the data is wrong, and his conclusions are wrong.