After the LK-99 debacle, I'm taking this with a truck load of salt.
"Debacle"? That was the most fun I've had on the Internet in years. When's the last time so many people engaged in so many arguments about materials science and electromagnetism? Sometime in the 1800s?
There was one particular (like 10 tweet long) Twitter thread [1] that was repeatedly being linked from HN purporting to describe the sort of technologies that a room temp superconductor like LK-99 could enable. All sorts of awesome sci-fi stuff like quantum computers! Fusion reactors! Batteries that last forever!
One might think it was from some kind of materials scientist or at least some kind of engineer working in a related industry. But nope, it was actually from a guy whose title at the time was "Head of Coffee Product", formerly "Coffee Specialist" at a "technology-driven company, looking to revolutionize the $400+ billion global coffee market". (I checked his Linkedin to make sure I was remembering the details correctly and see his current position is "Growth" at Cognition, the makers of the Devin AI LLM coding tool, hype continuing apace...).
People on HN with relevant expertise would try to gently push back with specific criticisms like how superconductor batteries would likely underperform li-ion, fusion is far more complicated than just requiring more powerful magnets, quantum computing doesn't have any clear application for superconductors, etc. But they were overwhelmed by the exuberant futurist fantasies that people wanted to read about instead. A stock accusation was that critics were being stereotypical HN cynics who can only poke holes in other people's work. Or questioning why they felt the need to rain on the parade and that we should all be optimistic for humanity and root for LK-99 being real.
It peaked when the Nature editorial came out from a scientist in the field listing specific substantive criticisms which led him to believe the evidence for LK-99 superconductivity was weak to non-existent. There were many angry HN comments with stock complaints about self-interested Nature "gatekeepers" unhappy about science happening in the open, bitter scientists lashing out for being scooped, etc. But the vibes had shifted and it only took a few more days before the remaining hype finally evaporated and everyone quietly moved on like it never happened.
Overall, it seemed like a net negative for actual scientific understanding and produced a lot of vacuous hype.
[1] https://xxcancel.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684044616528453633
In magnetic materials, you must calculate separately the current with spin up and spin down and there ara meny interesting applications. My favorite is[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_magnetoresistance
[1] Was. Because it has used for hard disks (see the applications section). Now SSD ruins the interesting anecdote.
Okay, so this is just semiconductors, which are the boring kind of conductors - still more interesting than regular conductors, but less interesting than train conductors.
The system worked as designed and as intended.
That was one of the best examples of science working nearly perfectly. One of the rare times I felt ok being human
I think as far as the 'debacle', there was definitely a lot of hype (at least as far as HN goes) around it, the level of buzz felt similar to what one would see today around a new AI model release.
but the fact that it proceeded in the way that it did was absolutely fucking phenomenal
I’m actually really glad that it was brought up as an example because I had forgotten about it and it’s one of the few kind of hopeful things that we’ve done recently.
Edit: I stand corrected. According to Gemini:
Me: Does using more salt mean accepting more of that claim?
Gemini: No, it actually means the exact opposite. If you say you need to take a claim with a huge pile of salt (or a shovel of salt), it means you believe the claim is highly unbelievable and you need an immense amount of skepticism to accept it. How the Metaphor Scales
• A single grain of salt: "I am slightly skeptical, but it could be true."
• A pinch of salt: "I have a healthy amount of doubt about this."
• A grain of sand / A truckload of salt: "This sounds completely made up, and I barely believe a single word of it."
The salt represents your skepticism, not your belief. Therefore, the more unbelievable the claim, the more "salt" you need to swallow it.
We live in interesting times.
Linguistic questions were one of the first knowledge categories I trusted LLMs to be able to answer well - quite literally being models of language. It would be pretty shocking for a ~frontier model to get something like that wrong in the last like 3 years at least.
(+) Or a "grain" if you're from the US since American English sayings seem to all date from the middle ages, while the rest of the English speaking world tends to update ours over time. No shade meant, I've just always found that interesting.