>I think this is a bit muddied. The most sincere answer is that it's unknowable because we can only define consciousness in two ways: a metaphysical subjective experience that we can't really confirm in anyone else; or an outward appearance, which LLMs can mimic nearly flawlessly.
I kind of agree and disagree. I think in principle we can imagine "direct" tests if we feel we really need such a thing. The problem is, as a practical matter of investigating, it's just exceptionally hard, the way that things like germ theory and the complexities of viruses, bacteria, and the immune system were hard to probe in previous eras.
I think in 2026 we are caught in an era where, for better or worse, we don't have some capabilities that at least are notionally possible to imagine: cases like conjoined twins sharing parts of their brain, or artificial brain to brain interfaces, and even machine to brain interfaces, could seemingly test this in robust ways. But they have every appearance of being sci-fi horror stories that are ethically unacceptable.
But I do think there's an important difference between it being really hard and being impossible to probe in principle. I also think a good theory of consciousness could tie the philosophical idea of qualitativeness to an equivalent character of physical reality (e.g. Russellian monism), and a combination of good philosophy and empirical understanding could set us up for meaningful knowledge claims.
Even now, we can, for instance, push back on claims of plant or slime mold consciousness, because you can search for something like an outward appearance of intelligence, but once you investigate internal structure you don't see things like internal world state or any equivalent to internal informational representation or deliberation in response to world states, you see automatic biological reflexes. So I don't think our only options are assuming it's unknowable in principle.