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Comment by beedeebeedee | Hacker News Reader

There are as many possibilities as one could imagine. This is still hypothetical (as I said in my comment above, I know what I will assume only if it disrupts the elections, and hope it does not, which will restore some trust), but means, motives and who benefits are important to remember when evaluating unknowable situations. Granting the benefit of the doubt is not something I do for this US administration and their fellow travelers.

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> means, motives and who benefits are important

I agree, which is why it's important to realize that the means for the US administration to cause this are very remote, and the potential benefits of this situation (particularly on the elections as you mention) are even more obscure.

I'm not saying the US hasn't done its fair share of shady and immoral operations, probably more than any other country in the world, but the scenario you propose is more akin to a Rube Goldberg machine than any realistic covert operation.

Once again, this is hypothetical- only if this is not contained, i.e., what ever safety precautions to prevent this were broken.

Your lack of belief in how covert operations work shows a lack of history. I obviously have no secret knowledge about his, but even reading one or two historical accounts about intelligence services (and others) would prove you wrong

This disease is generally highly treatable. Your conspiracy theory hinges on a belief that a treatable disease in a foreign country will be used to do something with the ongoing (ballots are already going out) US midterm elections, when in 2020 the US still held regular elections despite the ongoing, and far less treatable at the time, COVID pandemic.

Your hypothetical is not based in reality.

My original comment is flagged, so I will assume you didn’t read it and don’t understand my hypothetical. Here it is: if this is used as a pretext to prevent the US mid-term elections, then I will assume that it was intentional (accepting that it might have merely just been taken advantage of), because this is an unknowable situation for me (and you), and this administration does not deserve the benefit of the doubt in anything it does anymore

I did read it. It was an idiotic hypothetical. Your hypothetical is hinged on something not based in reality.

2020 with COVID was far worse than something that's still literally thousands of miles from the US and we still held elections in the US. Midterm elections have already started, so even if this was some bizarre CIA plot, it'd be the least effective way to achieve their goals. They failed before they began because, again, the elections are already happening.

So, I’ll ignore the insults because you seem to still not understand. If this is used as a pretext, then I will make my assumption. We have not completed the election yet even if early voting may have started in some districts. We are a month from election day. The majority of votes have not been cast, counted, verified, and the new congress seated. I would rebut that your beliefs are not based on reality because you state it as if it’s already completed and don’t seem to understand hypotheticals (and use insults to try to make your point:)

A lack of history? Don't make me laugh. Show me one historical example of such an operation as you suggest. While the CIA and others in the US government have often engaged in absurd and sometimes downright ridiculous plots, such as Operation Northwoods, Castro assassination attempts, and MKUltra, your suggested scenario is at least ten times more far fetched.

I'm not sure if I'm demonstrating a lack of belief in how covert operations work (whatever that means), but you sure are demonstrating a lack of common sense about what covert operations are even possible.

You don't think there's an easier way of manipulating domestic elections than sneaking into a hostile country across the world and infecting a random scientist with the plague?

And like I said in my comments, if this was a serious attempt by the CIA to disrupt midterms, they started too late. And COVID was a worse pandemic than this non-pandemic (presently) and we still held our national elections. It's an extremely absurd theory.

Well, I'm laughing at you then, because the planned or actual use of plague as an overt or covert weapon has an extremely long history from the siege of Caffa (1346) to the proposed Japanese operation to spread plague in the US during WWII. Other diseases have equally extensive overt and covert planned or actual use. Overturning governments and preventing elections also has an equally long and storied past. The fact that you think it is more absurd that a pathogen might be used to prevent an election, than any of the plots to kill Castro, or the proposed Operation Northwoods where the US Joint Chiefs of Staff approved bombing its own population as a pretext to invade Cuba shocks me.

So let me get this straight, in order to prevent an election, they used plague as a weapon, against a lab that's coincidentally studying plagues, that's located 8000 km away from where the election takes place, on the day of the start of the election? Genius plan!

You still haven't given any historical example of such an operation (unless you're suggesting the Japanese planned to spread plague in the US during WWII in order to influence domestic Japanese politics. That'd probably be a less ridiculous story then whatever you're actually claiming though). Maybe instead you can try to answer how exactly this advances the claimed goal, how you even suppose they practically did it, and why there was no simpler method of achieving the goal?

You seem to be forgetting that diseases can travel fast, and do not stop at the border, especially respiratory ones. You also seem to be forgetting that governments go into lockdowns during the onset of pandemics (or fears of one).

Another commenter pointed out that we had elections during covid, but that was several months after the initial onset, and after shelter-in-place orders were lifted. It is true that it took three weeks from the first reported case in China until we had the first reported case in the US, and then another eight weeks until the first lockdowns. It would have to be an accelerated timeline for the US to use it as a pretext to stop elections, but we are also much more sensitive to the threat of respiratory pandemics, having just gone through the first one in living history. If a US case is reported within the next three weeks, it is possible that it could be used as a pretext; especially because it would benefit the group who last time were the biggest opponents of the lockdowns.

But once again, I am not arguing for this. I am only explaining my hypothetical: if this is used as a pretext to disrupt the elections, I will assume it was intentional (until proven otherwise).

Okay but what do they gain from spreading the disease 8000 km away from where they want it? Apart from making the mission ten times much more difficult to plan as it's on hostile soil.

I'd suggest you focus on actual crimes committed by the US government right now today, such as the Epstein coverup, the war in Iran, the genocide in Palestine, etc. etc. instead of making up nonsensical hypotheticals.

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