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Comment by hackinthebochs | Hacker News Reader

It would be good if one's reputation tracked one's track record of predictive accuracy. But many people will take what LeCun says as gospel regardless of how badly wrong he has been and continues to be.

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Is there anyone who has not been badly wrong? I've been reading these debates for years and I don't think I've seen anybody pick the right spot on the bearish to bullish spectrum. The only thing I've become more certain of in this time has been uncertainty.

I apply more of a penalty to people who are confidently wrong, and who don't, In retrospect, notice that they were wrong and analyze why they got it wrong . LeCun is very confident and doesn't seem to have done much introspection.

But isn't that also pretty much everybody?

I often see people vindicate those who predicted really fast takeoff to AGI / ASI, because the capabilities have obviously been taking off extremely quickly. But still not as quickly as many predicted! To me, the people who confidently predicted that we'd all be out of a job by 2024 or 2025 have been just as wrong as LeCun has been.

Yeah, so the ones who have credibility are probably the ones who said "you know, it's really hard to anticipate timelines, but here's the general directions that I see things will go..."

Yes, and I feel like I see that perspective from many random commentators here and elsewhere, but that the prominent voices have been more likely to take a more confident stance on one side or the other.

No, most people I know have sane takes on AI capabilities and potential.

It's only online that I've seen these wild predictions, where it coincidentally is profitable to say them. These people are looking g for clicks or to stay relevant, so they have to say crazy stuff.

I agree, but what I mean is, who among the prominent LeCun level voices has been more vindicated by events than him? I agree that people I talk to here and in real life are more uncertain and circumspect.

In my selective memory, I've been right about everything.

Haha. I like to say: I do whatever I want, as long as my wife agrees.

>> Is there anyone who has not been badly wrong?

Being wrong, even badly wrong, is fine, so long as one adjusts their beliefs accordingly. LeCun has not.

Seems like that's begging the question at best, motivated reasoning at worst.

He remains unconcerned about existential risk to humanity, but that does not mean he has not updated any of his beliefs.

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