P(doom) for not making an ASI is pretty well established, I'm not really sure why everyone in the 21st century seems to have completely forgotten the risk of nuclear war (as the single largest example).
But that’s my point - we should compare the risks of having AGI with the risks of not having it. And not pretend it’s roses or rainbows without it.
Why would a person who is happy, entertained, wealthy, well fed, and have 200 years of healthy high quality life expected ahead of them going to risk losing what they have in war?
-- there aren't zero reasons, sure-- but there are fewer.
And our technology has brought us absolutely tremendous prosperity in many regards and there is good reason to believe that AI can help create much more.
'Prosperity' has never been and will never be enough for some people. And unfortunately those are the same kinds of people who relentlessly seek power.
The opposite is true of releasing ever more powerful AI into the world to do your bidding.