Comment by shevy-java | Hacker News Reader

Comment by shevy-java | Hacker News Reader

Both countries are not super-rich and some of the arabic countries constantly destabilize the area - we could see this in Sudan and elsewhere. Ask where all the various terrorist groups got high-quality weapons.

The war between Eritrea is Ethiopia is especially stupid. The main issue is access to the ocean/water which Ethiopia wants. Since it is the bigger country, it wants to bully its way through. Eritrea has only about 6 million people; Ethiopia has almost 140 million people. IMO there should be a diplomatic solution. Give Ethiopia access while not giving up land, negotiate payments (should be reasonable for both sides), invest into the corridor for both sides to profit. To me it seems as if Ethiopia has committed to the decision to wage war though. It's similar to Putin in that he committed to both genocide and expansion of land. Though Eritrea is really very small compared to Ethiopia; I don't see them being able to offset Ethiopia.

From an outsider standpoint it all seems so insane. The water is there — the way we do it in the world I know isn’t to have, say, Czechs slaughter Germans for decades until they get to the sea, in this case they made a deal to be part of a common market which makes it simple. But even in the absence of the EU etc. I still think they’d (at least in this century) negotiate for access to a convenient railroad, offer to pay to expand a port so both sides profit, etc.

Eritrea/ns have historically, significant cost, demonstrated that they will resist Ethiopian occupation (see 1961-1991 and 1998-2000 conflicts). Ethiopia could re-negotiate access (see 1993-1998 agreements), however Ethiopia (state) argues for "access" in English while arguing for "ownership" in Amharic. Eritrea/ns are reasonably suspicious.

That's an outdated take at this point though right?

I mean pretty much everyone, today, (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South sudan, etc etc), has settled on Kenya being the answer to all those questions. No one wants to access the sea in the Eritrea direction anymore since everything going on in Kenya is making Kenyan coastal access such a no-brainer. (And all of that was even before the Iran war showed that making your shipping dependent on the Eritrea route, and mideast chokepoints in general, is just, I mean, I'll be diplomatic and call it "ill-considered"). Now, with the newest attachments being considered for the LAPSSET corridor, going through Eritrea is just insanity by comparison.

So even without the geography problem, there is still war is my point. Now, of course, you could argue it's still a geography problem since the proxy-masters are mostly concerned about getting rid of the dam long term. But that's another issue is all I'm saying.

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